甲醇产业链周报：供需环比转弱，甲醇偏弱震荡-20250414

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tariffs have little direct impact on methanol supply and demand but affect the demand for many downstream products, potentially influencing methanol demand later. Methanol's own supply - demand is weakening month - on - month due to the resumption of Iranian plants and expected increase in imports. Sino - US tariff hikes have a significant impact on commodity demand, with most downstream methanol products' demand affected, making the outlook for methanol slightly bearish. It is recommended to adopt a weak - oscillation approach and guard against price decline risks [3][86]. - For the unilateral strategy, it is advised to shift to a weak - oscillation mindset [4][87]. - For the hedging strategy, it is recommended to wait and see [5][88]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spot Market - Methanol spot market prices fluctuated this week. Ports in East China continued to reduce inventory, and the intraday basis quotes fluctuated weakly. On Friday, the basis quote was around 05 + 90 yuan/ton, and the basis quote for April's forward paper was 05 + 75 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Basis and Spread - Methanol basis quotes fluctuated weakly this week. The basis quote for April's forward paper was around 05 + 90 yuan/ton [15]. - Methanol's coastal basis oscillated this week, and the inland basis also oscillated. The inland market prices and the prices in the northwest region oscillated this week [25][33]. - The spread between East China and inland regions of methanol oscillated weakly [43]. - The 5 - 9 spread started to show some reverse - arbitrage trends, mainly because imports began to increase and the port inventory reduction speed was a bit slow [53]. - The PP - 3MA spread oscillated this week. Consider reducing the long - PP and short - MA strategy and continue the operation after the callback [58]. 3. Industrial Chain Profit - Spring maintenance has started to take effect, and the methanol operating rate has declined. However, there are many restarts of methanol maintenance devices, and methanol production has begun to increase [65][68]. - The dimethyl ether operating rate oscillated strongly, the formaldehyde operating rate oscillated, and the methanol - to - olefins operating rate in the northwest region oscillated at a high level [75]. - This week, the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins devices oscillated. Attention should be paid to the startup situation of MTO devices [78]. 4. Market Outlook - Methanol supply - demand is expected to remain weak. It is recommended to adopt a weak - oscillation approach and guard against price decline risks. The unilateral strategy is to shift to a weak - oscillation mindset, and the hedging strategy is to wait and see [86][87][88].