对等关税冲击市场，不确定性激增

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - Last week, IF2504 closed at 3732.2 points, down 129.4 points or 3.35% from the previous week; IH2504 closed at 2609.0 points, down 55.4 points or 2.08%; IC2504 closed at 5555.8 points, down 266.6 points or 4.58%; IM2504 closed at 5835.0 points, down 333.4 points or 5.4% [2] 2. Fundamental Analysis - In March 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the average CPI from January to March decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period last year [6] - In March 2025, the national producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.5% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month; the purchase price index of industrial producers decreased by 2.4% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. In the first quarter, both PPI and the purchase price index decreased by 2.3% compared with the same period last year [9] - As of the end of March 2025, the balance of broad money (M2) was 326.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7%; the balance of narrow money (M1) was 113.49 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%; the balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.07 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11.5%. In the first quarter, net cash injection was 249.8 billion yuan. In the first quarter, RMB loans increased by 9.78 trillion yuan [12][13] 3. Valuation Analysis - As of April 13, the PE of the CSI 500 Index was 27.48 times, with a quantile of 59.41%, and the PB was 1.76 times; the PE of the SSE 300 Index was 12.09 times, with a quantile of 38.04%, and the PB was 1.29 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 10.5 times, with a quantile of 58.24%, and the PB was 1.17 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 36.08 times, with a quantile of 37.06%, and the PB was 2.00 times [15] 4. Other Data - The equity - bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market return rate and the treasury bond yield rate. There are two formulas for calculating the equity - bond yield spread: one is based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [20][23] 5. Core View - Affected by the recent "reciprocal tariff" policy, the market has fluctuated sharply. It is recommended that investors operate cautiously. The market may show a volatile rebound next week. Given the market uncertainty, investors can also consider using a small amount of options for trading [26]