棕榈油：宏观减弱，震荡反弹，豆油：关税情绪反复，现实驱动偏少

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The price of palm oil is expected to experience an oscillating rebound as macro - factors weaken, while the price of soybean oil lacks real - world drivers due to fluctuating tariff sentiment [1]. - HLIB maintains its price forecasts for crude palm oil in 2025 - 2026 at 4,000 and 3,800 ringgit per ton respectively, and predicts that the strong price trend will fade once the supply outlook recovers [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices: The closing price of palm oil futures (day session) was 8,748 yuan/ton with a - 0.07% change, and (night session) 8,760 yuan/ton with a 0.14% change; soybean oil futures (day session) was 7,712 yuan/ton with a 0.50% change, and (night session) 7,698 yuan/ton with a - 0.18% change; rapeseed oil futures (day session) was 9,310 yuan/ton with a 0.49% change, and (night session) 9,370 yuan/ton with a 0.64% change. The closing price of Malaysian palm oil futures was 4,214 ringgit/ton with a 0.33% change, and CBOT soybean oil futures was 47.76 cents/pound with a 2.23% change [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of palm oil futures decreased by 91,887 lots to 549,226 lots, and open interest decreased by 29,390 lots to 172,008 lots; for soybean oil futures, trading volume decreased by 38,888 lots to 80,409 lots, and open interest decreased by 14,032 lots to 154,135 lots; for rapeseed oil futures, trading volume decreased by 64,281 lots to 313,474 lots, and open interest decreased by 13,444 lots to 118,307 lots [1]. - Spot Prices: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,250 yuan/ton with no change; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,100 yuan/ton with a 30 - yuan increase; the spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,250 yuan/ton with a 90 - yuan decrease; the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,065 dollars/ton with no change [1]. - Basis: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 502 yuan/ton, soybean oil in Guangdong was 388 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was - 60 yuan/ton [1]. - Price Spreads: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 562 yuan/ton (previous two - day: 511 yuan/ton); the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 1,068 yuan/ton (previous two - day: - 1,108 yuan/ton); the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 552 yuan/ton (previous two - day: 568 yuan/ton); the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 32 yuan/ton (previous two - day: 28 yuan/ton); the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was - 44 yuan/ton (previous two - day: - 50 yuan/ton) [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SGS estimates that Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1 - 10, 2025 were 211,252 tons, a 6.63% decrease compared to the same period last month [4]. - As of the week ending April 8, about 22% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, down from 33% last week and the same as last year's 22% [4]. - A private US exporter reported the sale of 121,000 tons of soybeans to an unknown destination, with 55,000 tons for delivery in the 2024/2025 season and 66,000 tons for 2025/2026 [4]. - Analysts expect that the US soybean crush volume in March 2025 will reach a record high for the third month of the year, with an average estimate of 197.602 million bushels, an 11.1% increase from February and a 0.6% increase from March 2024. The estimated soybean oil inventory at the end of March is expected to reach 1.617 billion pounds, a 7.6% increase from the end of February but a 12.7% decrease from the same period last year [5]. - Brazil's 2024/2025 soybean harvest is 89.09% complete, higher than the 85.13% of the same period last year and the five - year average of 88.9%. Brazil's biodiesel production surge has tightened soybean oil export supply, and in the 2024/2025 market year, soybean oil production is expected to reach a record 1.2 million tons, while exports are expected to be 130,000 tons, almost the same as last year [6]. - Canada's rapeseed exports in the week ending April 6 increased by 32.9% to 309,700 tons compared to the previous week. From August 1, 2024, to April 6, 2025, exports were 7.1756 million tons, a 76.2% increase compared to the same period last year. As of April 6, the commercial inventory of rapeseed was 1.204 million tons [7]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [8].