2025年3月份金融数据点评：贷款投放超预期，关注需求修复持续性

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months compared to the market benchmark index [1]. Core Insights - The March financial data shows that new RMB loans reached 3.64 trillion, an increase of 550 billion year-on-year, with a growth rate of 7.4%, slightly up from the end of February [4][28]. - The total social financing scale in March was 5.89 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 1.05 trillion and a growth rate of 8.4%, reflecting a continuous upward trend since the beginning of the year [28][29]. Summary by Sections Loan Issuance - March saw a significant increase in loan issuance, with new RMB loans of 3.64 trillion, surpassing market expectations. The first quarter of 2025 exhibited a strong credit issuance characteristic, with a total of 9.78 trillion in new loans, indicating a robust demand for financing [4][5]. - The loan growth in March was characterized by a "front low, back high" pattern, with a notable increase in the latter half of the month due to seasonal factors and improved business conditions [4][5]. Corporate Loans - In March, corporate loans accounted for 2.84 trillion, showing a year-on-year increase of 500 billion. The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5%, indicating an expansion in production and new orders [17][18]. - The first quarter saw a total of 8.66 trillion in corporate loans, representing a historical high and indicating a strong demand driven by seasonal construction and infrastructure projects [17][18]. Retail Loans - Retail loans in March totaled 985.3 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 447 billion. The mortgage and non-housing consumer loans showed positive trends, supported by a recovery in the real estate market [21][22]. - The average interest rate for new personal housing loans in March was 3.1%, indicating a stable pricing environment for mortgages [24]. Social Financing - The total social financing in March was 5.89 trillion, with a notable contribution from government bonds, which accounted for 1.48 trillion, significantly higher than historical averages [28][29]. - The report highlights a shift in corporate financing from direct to indirect methods due to rising costs in bond financing, reflecting a broader trend in the financing landscape [29]. Monetary Supply - M2 growth remained stable at 7%, while M1 growth rebounded to 1.6%, indicating an increase in monetary activity [35][36]. - The report notes that March saw a significant increase in government spending, which supported the growth of M1 and M2 [35][36]. Deposit Growth - In March, total RMB deposits increased by 4.25 trillion, with a year-on-year decrease of 550 billion. The structure of deposits showed a stable growth in household deposits, while non-bank deposits decreased significantly [38][39].