Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market remained strong due to tariff shocks. On April 7, influenced by US tariff impacts, the market's risk - aversion sentiment was high, and the expectation of loose monetary policy increased. However, on April 8, with Central Huijin's action to stabilize the stock market, the bond market weakened. Subsequently, the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions and loose liquidity led to the bond market strengthening again on April 9 and 10. On April 11, the market's tariff expectation eased, and the bond market fluctuated narrowly. Overall, the bond market was still strong last week, with long - term bond yields declining and the yield curve steepening [1]. - This week (the week of April 14), the bond market is expected to show a volatile pattern. The March economic and financial data exceeding expectations and the easing of tariff expectations will have a negative impact on the bond market. However, the uncertainty of US tariff policies, the continuation of Sino - US trade games, the possible pressure on the domestic economy in the second quarter, the weak domestic effective demand, and the expectation of loose monetary policy will support the bond market [1]. Summary of Each Section 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Secondary Market - The bond market remained strong last week, with long - term bond yields dropping significantly. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.35% in the whole week. On Friday, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 6.12bp compared with the previous Thursday, and the 1 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 8.51bp, with the term spread widening significantly [2]. - On April 7, the bond market remained strong due to the counter - tariff measures and the expectation of loose monetary policy. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined significantly, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield dropped 8.62bp [2]. - On April 8, the bond market corrected as the central bank supported Central Huijin to increase stock purchases, the stock market rebounded, and the liquidity was tight. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally increased, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 3.15bp [2]. - On April 9, the bond market strengthened as the liquidity loosened and the US tariff and China's counter - measures increased the expectation of loose monetary policy. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield dropped 1.25bp [2]. - On April 10, the bond market fluctuated strongly under the influence of multiple factors. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield dropped 0.64bp [2]. - On April 11, the yields of inter - bank major interest - rate bonds showed different trends. The short - and medium - term yields continued to decline, while the long - term yields increased. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 1.24bp [2][3]. 1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 55 interest - rate bonds were issued, 11 more than the previous week. The issuance volume was 690.1 billion yuan, 9.8 billion yuan less than the previous week, and the net financing was - 180.6 billion yuan, 659.8 billion yuan less than the previous week. The issuance and net financing of Treasury bonds decreased, while the issuance of policy - bank bonds and local bonds increased, but the net financing decreased [10]. - The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds was generally acceptable last week. The average subscription multiples of Treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, and local bonds were 3.98 times, 3.55 times, and 20.54 times respectively [11]. 2. Last Week's Important Events - In March, the year - on - year decline of CPI narrowed significantly. The CPI in March decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, compared with a 0.7% decline in February. The PPI in March decreased by 2.5% year - on - year, compared with a 2.2% decline in February. The decline of CPI was mainly due to the lower base in the same period last year and the support of relevant policies. The decline of PPI was due to the fall of international oil prices, weak domestic demand, and insufficient terminal consumption [12]. - The March financial data generally exceeded market expectations. The new RMB loans in March were 3.64 trillion yuan, an increase of 550 billion yuan year - on - year. The new social financing scale was 5.8879 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.0544 trillion yuan year - on - year. The M2 growth rate remained unchanged at 7.0% at the end of March, and the M1 growth rate increased by 1.5 percentage points to 1.6% compared with the end of February [12]. 3. Real - Economy Observation - Last week, most high - frequency data on the production side declined. The operating rates of petroleum asphalt plants, semi - steel tires, and daily average molten iron output decreased, while the blast furnace operating rate increased. On the demand side, the BDI index continued to fall, the CCFI index slightly rebounded, and the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to decrease. In terms of prices, pork prices continued to decline slightly, and most commodity prices also dropped, including rebar, crude oil, and copper [14]. 4. Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 439.2 billion yuan last week [26]. - The R007 and DR007 continued to decline, the issuance rate of joint - stock bank inter - bank certificates of deposit continued to decline, the 3M national - owned bill discount rate continued to decline, the trading volume of pledged repurchase significantly decreased, and the inter - bank market leverage ratio fluctuated and declined [29]
中美贸易摩擦升级，债市整体延续强势
Dong Fang Jin Cheng·2025-04-14 05:33