流动性周报：债券的宏观叙事和微观叙事-20250414

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the "macro - narrative", there is room for imagination in the bond market, but it requires time to observe the transmission of external shocks and the response of domestic policies. The bond market is affected by external shocks, domestic economic conditions, and policy responses. The key lies in the impact of external shocks on domestic demand, balance sheets, and prices, as well as whether they stimulate more explicit demand - expanding policies [3][12]. - In the "micro - narrative", the bond market is recovering. The liquidity and yield logics are both being repaired. The intrinsic repair trend of large - bank liabilities and the central bank's possible re - loan to Central Huijin indicate liquidity improvement. The decline in the yield of coupon - bearing bonds and the reduction of the corporate credit bond stock scale are beneficial for the bond market. Time is on the side of the bond market [4][14]. - Overall, the bond market's yield may break through the previous low, but it still needs to wait for the implementation of monetary easing. It is recommended to prioritize income repair and accumulation, choose coupon - bearing varieties, and lay out long - end opportunities on the left side during volatile operations [5][18]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 1. Bond's Macro and Micro Narratives - Current Situation of Bond Market Strategy Selection: After the rapid decline in yields, the operation difficulty of the bond market has increased significantly. The space for coupon - bearing varieties has been compressed, and the operation of the duration strategy is difficult [3][11]. - Macro - narrative: There are opportunities in the bond market under the macro - narrative. The deflation story in trading is unlikely to return as long as the domestic real - estate cycle shows signs of stabilization. However, it is necessary to observe the impact of external shocks on domestic demand, balance - sheet repair, and price pressure, as well as the response of domestic policies [3][12]. - Micro - narrative: The bond market is recovering. The liquidity logic is being repaired as large - bank liabilities have an intrinsic repair trend, and the central bank's possible re - loan to Central Huijin is a signal of liquidity supplementation. The yield logic is also being repaired as the yield of coupon - bearing bonds has declined, and the credit - bond investment yield has basically leveled off since the beginning of the year. For self - operated accounts with stable liabilities, the only option is to increase duration [4][14]. - Exchange - rate Issue: The external shock has accelerated the choice of the RMB exchange - rate policy. In the short term, maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate is the primary choice of monetary policy. In the medium term, the central bank needs to decide whether to choose an orderly depreciation of the RMB to maintain trade advantages or stability/appreciation to enhance capital - account attractiveness. The weakening of the US dollar provides an option for RMB appreciation in the long - term, which will restructure the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates [4][16]. - Investment Strategy: The bond market's yield may break through the previous low, but it needs to wait for the implementation of monetary easing. It is recommended to focus on income repair and accumulation, select coupon - bearing varieties, and look for long - end opportunities on the left side during market fluctuations [5][18].