宏源期货铅锌日评：宽幅整理-20250414

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Lead: The lead market is expected to experience wide - range consolidation in the short term. The fundamentals show that the resumption of production of primary and secondary lead is progressing steadily. With the decline in lead prices, most battery companies are pricing at low points, and spot transactions are improving. The impact of tariff policies on the macro - level is weakening, and market trading is shifting from the macro to the fundamentals. Continued attention should be paid to macro uncertainties [1]. - Zinc: The zinc market is expected to have range - bound consolidation in the short term. Recently, non - ferrous metals have mainly fluctuated with macro - sentiment. As the market digests the pessimistic sentiment, zinc prices have rebounded from lows. The fundamentals show that refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, zinc ore processing fees are rising, and production is increasing. Downstream industries are actively resuming production after the holiday, and some enterprises are replenishing stocks at low prices. Continued attention should be paid to macro - sentiment disturbances [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Indicators - Lead: SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,700 yuan/ton with 0.00% change; futures主力合约收盘价 was 16,825 yuan/ton, up 0.15%; LME3 - month lead futures收盘价 (electronic disk) was 1,914 dollars/ton, up 1.16%; the ratio of Shanghai - London lead prices was 8.79, down 1.00% [1]. - Zinc: SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,700 yuan/ton, down 0.83%; futures主力合约收盘价 was 22,660 yuan/ton, down 0.20%; LME3 - month zinc futures收盘价 (electronic disk) was 2,651.5 dollars/ton, up 0.40%; the ratio of Shanghai - London zinc prices was 8.55, down 0.59% [1]. 3.2 Supply and Demand - Lead: From April 5th to April 11th, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 62.01%, up 0.53 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 61.18%, down 1.28 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 73.25%, up 3.04 percentage points. In March, the output of electrolytic lead increased significantly, but in April, some refineries in Henan entered maintenance, and primary lead output may decrease. Secondary lead refineries faced losses and raw material constraints, leading to a reduction in operating rates. Currently, it is the off - season for consumption, and support for lead prices is limited [1]. - Zinc: From April 5th to April 11th, the weekly operating rate of galvanized enterprises was 63.74%, up 3.44 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 58.85%, up 4.75 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 61.61%, up 0.96 percentage points. Refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising, with production increasing. After the holiday, downstream industries are actively resuming production, and some enterprises are replenishing stocks at low prices [1]. 3.3 Market Trading - Lead: The trading volume of the active futures contract was 32,358 lots, down 47.66%; the open interest was 34,875 lots, down 5.15%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.93, down 44.82% [1]. - Zinc: The trading volume of the active futures contract was 133,346 lots, down 40.96%; the open interest was 64,481 lots, down 6.75%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 2.07, down 36.69% [1]. 3.4 Inventory - Lead: LME inventory was 247,425 tons with 0.00% change; Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 56,132 tons, down 4.41% [1]. - Zinc: LME inventory was 119,350 tons with 0.00% change; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 6,957 tons, down 0.33% [1].