新世纪期货交易提示（2025-4-14）-20250414

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Weak [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Weak [2] - Glass: Weak [2] - Soda ash: Weak [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Volatility [4] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Volatility [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: Bullish [4] - Silver: Bullish [4] - Soybean oil: Rebound [3] - Palm oil: Rebound [6] - Rapeseed oil: Rebound [6] - Soybean meal: Bullish with volatility [6] - Rapeseed meal: Bullish with volatility [6] - Soybean No. 2: Bullish with volatility [6] - Soybean No. 1: Bullish with volatility [6] - Rubber: Volatility [6] - Pulp: Weak volatility [6] - Logs: Volatility [7] - PX: Wait - and - see [7] - PTA: Wait - and - see [7] - MEG: Wait - and - see [7] - PR: Bullish with volatility [7] - PF: Buy on dips for processing margin [7] - Plastic: Volatility, bullish bias [7] - PP: Volatility, bullish bias [8] - PVC: Volatility, bullish bias [8] Core Viewpoints - The tariff policy has caused significant fluctuations in commodities. The US suspension of tariffs on some Chinese goods has alleviated market sentiment, but different industries are affected differently [2][4]. - In the black industry, demand is generally weak, and supply and demand are seeking a new balance. In the financial market, the stock index is affected by macro - economic data and policies, and the bond market is affected by interest rates and capital supply. The precious metals market is driven by geopolitical risks, inflation data, and central bank actions. The agricultural products market is influenced by factors such as production, trade policies, and weather [2][4][6]. Summary by Categories Black Industry - Iron ore: Although the export order index of China's manufacturing industry has rebounded, it is still in the contraction range, which restricts the export of steel products and drags down raw material demand. The global iron ore shipment is expected to increase, and the supply is loose. Steel mills' profits are okay, and the daily average pig iron output has rebounded but shows signs of peaking. Investors can consider the 05 - 09 positive spread operation and long - term short - allocation of the 09 contract [2]. - Coking coal and coke: The increase in tariffs on US coking coal imports will lead to a decrease in imports from the US and an increase from other countries. The high output of coking coal and the over - supply of coke remain unchanged, and the inventory pressure of coking enterprises has increased. The first round of price increases by coke enterprises has supported the market, and the overall market follows the trend of finished products [2]. - Rolled steel and rebar: The tariff policy has caused fluctuations, and the current valuation is neutral. The cost of off - peak electricity supports the price. Both production and demand are increasing, but the demand recovery is slow. Steel mills are unlikely to cut production spontaneously on a large scale, and production is expected to increase in April. Terminal demand is in a weak recovery stage, and the May contract may hit a new low in the short term [2]. - Glass: Production has increased slightly, and the 2025 completion volume is expected to be lower than that in 2024. Although there are real - estate利好消息, the transmission of terminal demand takes time. Inventory has been decreasing, and the short - term tariff disturbance is negative. Attention should be paid to macro - policies, inventory changes, cold - repair progress, and the increase in real - estate completion area [2]. Financial Market - Stock index: The previous trading day's stock index showed different trends, with capital flowing into the precious metals and semiconductor sectors and out of the agricultural and food sectors. The social financing scale in the first quarter of 2025 increased year - on - year, and the money supply also changed. The four - department guidance on financial support for the sports industry was issued. With the stabilization of the external market and the easing of risk - aversion sentiment, long positions in the stock index can be held [4]. - Treasury bond: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond increased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of funds. With the significant decline in interest rates and stable market funds, Treasury bonds are on the rise [4]. - Precious metals: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Geopolitical risks, debt problems, and inflation data all affect the price of precious metals. The short - term trade - war escalation and the expected decline in US inflation support the upward trend of precious metals [4]. Agricultural Products Market - Oils and fats: Southeast Asian palm oil has entered the seasonal production - increasing cycle, and the export market is weak. South American soybeans have a record - high harvest, and the import of Brazilian soybeans to China is affected by trade frictions. Domestic soybean arrivals are increasing, and the inventory of oils and fats is declining. With the easing of tariff expectations, oils and fats are expected to stop falling and rebound [3][6]. - Meals: The USDA's supply - demand data is positive, and the postponement of some tariffs by the US and the EU has alleviated concerns about US crop exports. Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, and the heavy rain in Argentina has raised concerns about soybean production. The short - term trend of soybean meal is bullish with volatility, and attention should be paid to South American weather and soybean arrivals [6]. - Soybean No. 2: The USDA report is slightly positive, and the export of new Brazilian soybeans is accelerating. The expected soybean arrivals in the first quarter in China are lower than last year, but it may exceed 10 million tons in April. The short - term trend is bullish with volatility, and attention should be paid to South American weather and soybean arrivals [6]. Other Commodities - Rubber: The price of Shanghai rubber has risen slightly. The global natural rubber supply is entering the production - increasing period, and the arrival of imported rubber has increased inventory pressure. The downstream consumption is affected by tariff disputes. The supply in Yunnan is affected by weather and diseases, and the demand is weakening. The short - term market is expected to show weak volatility [6]. - Pulp: The spot market price has stabilized. The cost of pulp is strongly supported, but the demand from paper mills is weak, and the pulp price is expected to show weak volatility [6]. - Logs: The spot market price is relatively strong, but the sustainability is questionable. The arrival of logs is expected to decrease, the supply pressure will decline, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Chemical Products: - PX: The demand is weakening, and the oil price is under pressure. The domestic PX load is decreasing, and the PXN spread is volatile. The PX price is expected to follow the oil - price fluctuations [7]. - PTA: The raw - material price fluctuates, the PXN spread is around $189/ton, and the spot TA processing margin is around 315 yuan/ton. The TA load has decreased, and the polyester load is stable. The short - term supply and demand are okay, mainly affected by raw - material price fluctuations [7]. - MEG: The domestic MEG load has decreased, and the port may accumulate inventory. The polyester load has rebounded. The raw - material end is differentiated, and the macro - sentiment fluctuates greatly, resulting in wide - range fluctuations in the disk [7]. - PR: The increase in the weekend oil price provides strong cost support, and the polyester bottle - chip market is mainly in a strong - side volatile state [7]. - PF: The increase in the oil price and the good short - term supply - demand pattern of PTA and EG support the cost. The short - term market of polyester staple fiber is expected to rebound, but the long - term impact of trade disputes on the downstream should be noted [7]. - Plastic: The price has decreased, the basis has strengthened, and the supply is at a high level. With the increase in downstream start - up and the decrease in inventory, the 05 contract is expected to run with a bullish bias [7]. - PP: The price has decreased, the basis has strengthened, and the cost has increased. The impact of tariffs is positive. The supply pressure is not large, and the downstream start - up is recovering. The price is expected to run with a bullish bias [8]. - PVC: The cost of calcium carbide is stable. The upstream and downstream start - up has increased slightly, and the export is average. The short - term inventory has decreased, but the supply - demand contradiction is still large. With the positive sentiment from the US cancellation of some tariffs, the PVC is expected to run with a bullish bias [8].