宏观周报（4月第2周）：关税战短期利空出尽-20250414

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - The market experienced a significant decline last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 3.11% and the Shenzhen Component Index falling by 5.13%[9] - The overall trading volume reached 16,124 billion CNY, an increase of 4,756 billion CNY week-on-week[9] - The U.S. imposed a 125% tariff on China, leading to a reciprocal response from China, which has largely priced in the tariff impacts[9] Group 2: Economic Indicators - March CPI showed a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, while PPI fell by 2.5% year-on-year, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures[10] - The core CPI for Q1 was 0.1 percentage points higher than historical averages, suggesting a mild improvement in consumer demand[11] - The need for supply and demand policies is emphasized to stabilize industrial prices and facilitate internal circulation[11] Group 3: Fixed Income Market - Last week, bond yields generally declined, with the 10-year government bond yield falling within the range of 1.65% to 1.75%[9] - The market anticipates incremental domestic policies in response to the tariff situation, which may lead to increased short-term volatility[9] Group 4: International Market Dynamics - U.S. stock markets rebounded, with the Dow Jones increasing by 4.95% and the S&P 500 by 5.7% due to tariff negotiations[9] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 3.04%, while the offshore RMB appreciated against the dollar, reflecting market adjustments to tariff changes[9]