Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various financial products including stock indices, bonds, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It suggests different trading strategies based on the market trends, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships of each product. For example, in the stock index market, it recommends buying IM index futures when the impact of the tariff storm weakens; in the copper market, it expects the price to be strong in the short term due to supply - demand factors and policy changes [2][4][10]. Summary by Categories Stock Indices - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.45%, the ChiNext Index up 1.36%, the STAR 50 up 2.07%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1348.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 260.8 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - Macro News: China's social financing increment in March was 5.89 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were 3.64 trillion yuan. The US announced tariff exemptions for some products but may re - review and impose tariffs on electronics. The US Treasury bond sell - off continued, and the yield exceeded 4.5% on Friday [2]. - Funding and Valuation: The margin trading balance increased by 2.755 billion yuan. The overnight Shibor rate decreased by 13.40bp to 1.6070%. The P/E ratios of CSI 300, CSI 500, etc. were 12.09, 27.48 respectively [3]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to buy IM index futures on dips after the impact of the tariff storm weakens. Unilateral trading suggests buying IM index long positions, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [4]. Bonds - Market Performance: On Friday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined, with TL down 0.36%, T down 0.14%, TF down 0.13%, and TS down 0.07% [5]. - News: At the end of March, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing scale was 8.4%, and the RMB loan balance increased by 7.4% year - on - year. The US CPI in March increased by 2.4% year - on - year [5][6]. - Strategy: The US tariff policy may lead to a more active domestic monetary policy. It is expected that the interest rate will maintain a downward trend in the medium term, but there may be short - term fluctuations. It is necessary to pay attention to policy risks and take profit opportunities [6]. Precious Metals - Market Performance: Shanghai gold rose 1.46% to 763.70 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 2.79% to 8153.00 yuan/kg. COMEX gold fell 0.24%, and COMEX silver rose 0.20% [7]. - Market Outlook: The Fed's hawkish monetary policy may pose a potential risk to the gold price. The current gold price has entered an accelerated upward phase, and there may be a price correction after the positive factors are exhausted [7]. - Strategy: It is recommended to hold existing long positions in gold and silver. The reference operating range for the main Shanghai gold contract is 748 - 780 yuan/gram, and for the main Shanghai silver contract is 7804 - 8545 yuan/kg [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Last week, copper prices rebounded after a sharp decline. The inventory of the three major exchanges decreased by 34,000 tons. The short - term copper price is expected to be strong due to supply - demand factors and policy changes. The reference operating range for the domestic Shanghai copper main contract is 73,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 8900 - 9500 US dollars/ton [10]. - Aluminum: Aluminum prices rebounded after a decline. The domestic inventory decreased, and the short - term price is expected to continue to rebound. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 19,200 - 20,200 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2350 - 2480 US dollars/ton [11]. - Zinc: The zinc price fell on Friday. The zinc market is expected to be bearish in the medium term. Due to the large impact of macro events, it is recommended to reduce positions [12]. - Lead: The lead price rose slightly on Friday. The lead market is affected by macro uncertainties and supply - demand factors. It is expected to maintain high - volatility and low - level fluctuations, and it is recommended to reduce positions [13]. - Nickel: Nickel prices recovered from a low level last week. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate around 120,000 yuan/ton. The reference operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 14,500 - 15,500 US dollars/ton [14]. - Tin: Tin prices fell sharply last week. The supply is expected to be low, and the demand is expected to weaken. The short - term price is expected to be volatile at a high level. The reference operating range for the Shanghai tin main contract is 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin 3M is 29,000 - 33,000 US dollars/ton [15]. - Lithium Carbonate: The spot price of lithium carbonate was stable on Friday, and the contract price was weak. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. The reference operating range for the main contract of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 69,300 - 71,000 yuan/ton [16]. - Alumina: The alumina index rose on April 11. The supply is still in excess, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2505 is 2650 - 2950 yuan/ton [17]. - Stainless Steel: The stainless steel main contract rose slightly on Friday. The supply exceeds demand, and the price is expected to be volatile. [18] Black Building Materials - Steel: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil declined on the previous trading day. The short - term price of steel products is expected to be weak and volatile due to trade frictions and supply - demand factors [20][21]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore main contract rose slightly on Friday. The supply is stable, and the demand is under pressure. The short - term price is expected to be weak, and it is necessary to control positions [22]. - Glass and Soda Ash: The glass price declined slightly, and the soda ash price was stable. The glass inventory decreased, and the soda ash inventory was under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for both [23][24]. - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon were volatile last week. The supply is relatively strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [25][26]. - Industrial Silicon: The price of industrial silicon continued to decline on April 11. The supply is in excess, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or use short - term trading strategies [30][31]. Energy Chemicals - Rubber: The global financial market rebounded, and the rubber market was affected by macro factors. The supply and demand of rubber were in a state of contradiction. It is recommended to operate conservatively, shorten the decision - making and holding periods, and reduce positions [34][38]. - Crude Oil: As of Friday, WTI crude oil futures rose 2.08%, Brent crude oil futures rose 1.88%, and INE crude oil futures fell 1.50%. It is recommended to take profit on dips and wait for the inflection point [39][41]. - Methanol: The methanol price was affected by macro factors. The supply is expected to increase in the future, and it is recommended to short on rallies [42]. - Urea: The urea price is expected to be supported by supply - demand factors. It is recommended to buy on dips and use positive arbitrage strategies for the inter - month spread [43]. - Styrene: The styrene price rebounded in the short term. It is recommended to close short positions. In the long term, it is recommended to short on rallies [44]. - PVC: The PVC price declined slightly. The short - term fundamentals are supported, but the medium - term outlook is weak. [46] - Ethylene Glycol: The ethylene glycol price rose slightly. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. - PTA: The PTA price rose slightly. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is recommended to wait and see [48]. - Para - Xylene: The PX price fell slightly. The PX market is in the maintenance season, and the inventory is expected to decrease. It is recommended to wait and see [49]. - Polyethylene (PE): The price of PE is expected to decline in the medium - term due to increased supply and decreased demand [50]. - Polypropylene (PP): The price of PP is expected to be volatile and bearish in April due to supply and demand factors [51]. Agricultural Products - Hogs: The domestic hog price rose over the weekend. The short - term price is expected to be stable with a slight increase in some areas. It is recommended to short on rallies [53]. - Eggs: The domestic egg price was stable over the weekend with a slight increase in some areas. The short - term sentiment is positive, but the medium - term outlook is bearish. It is recommended to wait for short - selling signals [54]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The price of soybean meal is expected to rise in the short term and then decline. The medium - term price is expected to be range - bound. It is recommended to use a buy - on - dips strategy [55][56]. - Oils and Fats: The palm oil price was affected by production, export, and crude oil prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply - demand situation in the producing areas. The medium - term outlook for oils and fats may be supported if the macro situation stabilizes [57][59]. - Sugar: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell slightly on Friday. The short - term sugar price may be volatile, and the medium - term price is affected by weather conditions [60][61]. - Cotton: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price was volatile on Friday. The short - term price is affected by tariffs, and the medium - term price depends on downstream consumption. The possibility of a price decline is relatively high [62][63].
五矿期货文字早评-20250414
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-04-14 06:14