长江期货贵金属周报：美元指数走弱，价格强劲上涨-20250414

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The US announced a 90 - day tariff suspension on most countries, increasing market uncertainty. The non - farm payrolls in March were significantly higher than expected, and the US CPI data in March was lower than expected, leading to a strong rise in gold prices. The US tariff policy has raised market concerns, increasing the expectation of an economic hard landing and the predicted number of interest rate cuts within the year. The Fed maintains a hawkish stance, but the market expects the number of Fed interest rate cuts to increase to 4 times. Central bank gold - buying demand and risk - aversion sentiment support precious metal prices. The market is dominated by recession expectations, and prices are expected to be strong in the near term. It is recommended to operate cautiously and wait for price pull - backs to build positions. [10] Summary by Directory 01 - Market Review - The US introduced a reciprocal tariff policy, increasing market uncertainty and weakening the US dollar index. The US March CPI data was lower than expected. As of last Friday, the price of US gold closed at $3255 per ounce, up 6.5% within the week, with an upper resistance level of $3340 and a lower support level of $3180. The price of US silver rebounded, with a weekly increase of 9%, closing at $32.2 per ounce, with a lower support level of $30.5 and an upper resistance level of $34. [6][9] 02 - Weekly View - The US tariff policy has increased market uncertainty. The non - farm payrolls in March were high, and the CPI was low, driving up gold prices. Market concerns about an economic hard landing have increased, and the expected number of interest rate cuts within the year has risen. The Fed maintains a hawkish stance, but the market predicts more interest rate cuts. The ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points in March. Central bank gold - buying demand and risk - aversion sentiment support precious metal prices. Prices are expected to be strong in the near term. It is advisable to wait for price pull - backs to build positions, with the reference operating range of SHFE gold contract 06 being 750 - 785 and SHFE silver contract 06 being 7700 - 8500. It is recommended to pay attention to the US March retail sales data to be released on Wednesday. [10][11] 03 - Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The content mainly presents various macroeconomic indicator charts, including real interest rates, exchange rates, bond yields, gold - silver ratio, Fed balance sheet, and WTI crude oil futures prices, but no specific data analysis is provided. [14][15][16] 04 - Important Economic Data of the Week - The US March CPI annual rate unadjusted was 2.4%, lower than the expected 2.6% and the previous value of 2.8%. The US March PPI annual rate was 2.7%, lower than the expected 3.3% and the previous value of 3.2%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending April 5 was 22.3 million, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 21.9 million. The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in April was 50.8, lower than the expected 54.5 and the previous value of 57. [24] 05 - Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - In March, US consumer prices unexpectedly decreased due to lower gasoline and used - vehicle prices. After the inflation data was released, the CME FedWatch Tool showed that the Fed would cut interest rates in June and by 100 basis points within the year. Some Fed officials believe that the tariff suspension may temporarily relieve market pressure, but economic risks remain. On April 11, certain products were removed from the "reciprocal tariff" list. [25] 06 - Inventory - This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 15,419.01 kg to 1,386,468.50 kg, and the SHFE gold inventory increased by 3 kg to 15,678 kg. The COMEX silver inventory increased by 230,118.71 kg to 15,473,229.03 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 194,823 kg to 992,117 kg. [12][29] 07 - Fund Holdings - As of April 8, the CFTC speculative fund net long position in gold was 203,102 contracts, a decrease of 47,780 contracts from last week. The CFTC speculative fund net long position in silver was 42,018 contracts, a decrease of 12,361 contracts from last week. [12][34] 08 - Key Points to Watch This Week - On Wednesday (April 16) at 20:30, the US March retail sales month - on - month rate will be released. On Thursday (April 17) at 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending April 12 will be released. [36]