宏观观点：通胀压力全面缓解，联储宽松预期升温

Inflation Data - The U.S. March CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, below the expected 2.6% and previous 2.8%[9] - The core inflation rose by 0.1% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, marking the first time in nearly four years that it fell below 3%[9] - Energy prices were the main driver behind the decline in inflation, while food and clothing inflation saw a slight increase[2] Market Reactions - Following the inflation data release, the U.S. dollar, stocks, and bonds all experienced declines, indicating capital outflows from the U.S. market[9] - The House passed a budget requiring at least $4 billion in spending cuts, significantly lower than previous expectations, raising concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability[9] Federal Reserve Outlook - Market expectations have shifted towards further monetary easing, with traders betting on four rate cuts within the year, exceeding the two cuts indicated by the Fed's dot plot in March[2] - The next rate cut is anticipated in the second quarter, driven by tightening liquidity and slowing economic growth expectations[2] Risk Factors - Trade policy uncertainty remains a significant risk that could impact economic stability[3]