国富期货：美国暂缓部分国家关税政策，豆系内盘弱于外

Report Title - "Guofu Bean Series Research Weekly Report: The US Suspends Tariff Policies for Some Countries, and the Domestic Bean Futures Market is Weaker than the International Market" [1] Report Date - April 14, 2025 [1] Report Structure 1. Market Review - Covers soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil [5] 2. Production Area Weather - Includes weather in US and Argentine soybean production areas [5] 3. International Supply and Demand - Analyzes supply and demand of US, Brazilian, and Argentine soybeans [5] 4. Domestic Supply and Demand - Focuses on supply and demand of soybean oil and soybean meal [5] 5. Domestic and International Oil Futures and Spot Prices, and Spreads - Covers basis, monthly spreads, variety spreads, FOB quotes, and CFTC positions [5] Key Data US Soybean Data (Unit: million bushels) | Crop Year | 22/23 | 23/24 | 24/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Initial Inventory | 274 | 264 (March: 342) | 342 (March: 342), with a 0% month - on - month change, a 78 increase (29.55% year - on - year) | | Production | 4,270 | 4,162 (March: 4,162) | 4,366 (March: 4,366), with a 0% month - on - month change, a 204 increase (4.90% year - on - year) | | Total Supply | 4,569 | 4,447 (March: 4,447) | 4,733 (March: 4,728), with a 0% month - on - month change, a 286 increase (6.43% year - on - year) | | Total Consumption | 4,305 | 4,104 (March: 4,105) | 4,359 (March: 4,349), with a 0% month - on - month change, a 255 increase (6.21% year - on - year) | | Ending Inventory | 264 | 342 (March: 342) | 375 (March: 380), with a - 1% month - on - month change, a 33 increase (9.65% year - on - year) | | Stock - to - Sales Ratio | 6.13% | 8.33% (March: 8.33%) | 8.60% (March: 8.74%), with a - 2% month - on - month change, a 3.23% year - on - year increase [32] Brazilian Soybean Data (Unit: million tons) | Crop Year | 22/23 | 23/24 | 24/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Initial Inventory | 27.38 | 36.82 (March: 36.82) | 29.76 (March: 27.97), with a 6% month - on - month increase, a - 7.06 decrease (- 19% year - on - year) | | Production | 162.00 | 154.50 (March: 153.00) | 169.00 (March: 169.00), with a 0% month - on - month change, a 14.50 increase (9% year - on - year) | | Total Supply | 189.53 | 192.19 (March: 190.69) | 198.91 (March: 197.12), with a 1% month - on - month increase, a 6.72 increase (3% year - on - year) | | Total Consumption | 152.71 | 162.42 (March: 162.72) | 166.60 (March: 165.60), with a 1% month - on - month increase, a 4.18 increase (3% year - on - year) | | Ending Inventory | 36.82 | 29.76 (March: 27.97) | 32.31 (March: 31.52), with a 3% month - on - month increase, a 2.55 increase (9% year - on - year) [46] Argentine Soybean Data (Unit: million tons) | Crop Year | 22/23 | 23/24 | 24/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Initial Inventory | 23.69 | 17.00 (March: 17.00) | 24.05 (March: 24.05), with a 0% month - on - month change, a 7.05 increase (41% year - on - year) | | Production | 25.00 | 48.21 (March: 48.21) | 49.00 (March: 49.00), with a 0% month - on - month change, a 0.79 increase (2% year - on - year) | | Total Supply | 57.75 | 73.00 (March: 73.00) | 79.25 (March: 79.05), with a 0% month - on - month change, a 6.25 increase (9% year - on - year) | | Total Consumption | 40.76 | 48.94 (March: 48.94) | 54.60 (March: 54.10), with a 1% month - on - month increase, a 5.66 increase (12% year - on - year) | | Ending Inventory | 17.00 | 24.05 (March: 24.05) | 24.65 (March: 24.95), with a - 1% month - on - month change, a 0.6 increase (2% year - on - year) [61] Forecasts from Different Institutions - Multiple institutions have provided production forecasts for the 24/25 and 25/26 crop years, with varying degrees of change compared to previous forecasts [49] FOB Quotes - The report provides FOB quotes for Brazil, US Gulf, US West, and Argentina at different times in April and May, showing week - on - week changes [55]