Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes the changes in the external market during the 2025 National Day holiday, including the fluctuations of various financial and commodity indices, as well as the supply - demand situation of the international and domestic agricultural and energy industries, and international and domestic macro - economic news. 3. Summary by Related Contents External Market Fluctuations during National Day - The US dollar index rose from 97.82 to 98.84, with a 1.04% increase; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.44%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.69% [1]. - Among agricultural products, BMD Malaysian palm oil rose 4.48%, CBOT US soybeans rose 2.90%, and ICE US cotton fell 1.19% [1]. - In the energy sector, NYMEX US fuel oil fell 1.36%, NYMEX US crude oil fell 0.21%, and ICE Brent fell 0.11% [1]. - Among non - ferrous metals, COMEX gold rose 4.45%, COMEX silver rose 3.42%, and LME copper rose 3.93% [1]. International Supply - Demand Situation - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's September palm oil inventory is expected to decline by 2.5% compared to August, production is expected to decline by 3.3%, and exports are expected to increase by 7.7%. Indonesia's 2025/26 palm oil production is expected to decline by 1%, and Malaysia's is expected to decline by 1%. Global palm oil imports are expected to increase by 4.6% [2][3]. - **Soybeans**: S&P Global lowered the US soybean yield forecast. As of September 1, 2025, the US old - crop soybean inventory was 3.16 billion bushels. Brazilian soybean planting progress is faster than in previous years, and the 2025/26 production is expected to increase. Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 4850 tons, and corn production is expected to be 5800 tons [4][5][7]. - **Other Crops**: Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 2002.8 tons, and exports are expected to be 700 tons. Ukraine has approved new export documents for tax - exempt rapeseed and soybean exports [13][14]. Domestic Supply - Demand Situation - On September 30, the total trading volume of domestic edible oils decreased by 71% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the oil mill operating rate dropped by 6.41%. The national soybean oil port inventory decreased by 0.7 tons [16]. International Macro - news - The US ADP employment in September decreased by 32,000, the Challenger job - cuts in September were 54,064, and the ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50. The US government shutdown continued, and the release of some economic data was postponed [18][19]. - OPEC + will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The eurozone's October Sentix investor confidence index was - 5.4 [19]. Domestic Macro - news - On September 30, the US dollar/renminbi exchange rate was adjusted downwards (the renminbi appreciated). The central bank conducted 242.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 33.9 billion yuan. On October 9, the central bank will conduct 1.1 trillion yuan of 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations [22]. - In September, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage point [22].

2025/9/29 13:25 【国富期货早间看点】SPPOMA⻢棕9⽉前25⽇产量环⽐减4.14% PAN巴西⼤⾖播种进度已达4.16% 20250929 | | 最新价 | 漆跌幅(%) 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 98. 16 | -0. 28 | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | 7. 1152 | 0. 05 | | 马未林吉特(MYR/USD) | 4. 2129 | 0. 12 | | 印尼卢比(IDR/USD) | 16702 | 0. 52 | | 巴西里亚尔(BRL/USD) | 5. 3470 | 0. 57 | | 阿根廷比索(ARS/USD) | 1329.000 | -0. 60 | | 新币(SGD/USD) | 1. 2925 | 0. 45 | 02 现货行情 | 期货 | 现货 | 现货价格 | 基差 | 基差隔日变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE棕榈油2601 | 华北 | 9340 | 90 | -10 | | | 华东 | 9200 | -40 | 0 | | | 华南 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, supply - demand dynamics, macro news, fund flows, etc. It shows the current situation and trends in the agricultural and energy futures markets, as well as the impact of international and domestic economic data on the market. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Spot Quotes - Closing prices and price changes of various futures such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, etc. are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 12 (BMD) is 4453.00, with a previous - day decline of 1.37% and an overnight decline of 0.29%. [1] - Latest prices and price changes of various currencies are also given, like the US dollar index at 98.44 with a 0.61% increase. [1] 02 Spot Quotes (Continued) - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE豆油 2601, and DCE豆粕 2601 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9340, with a basis of 100 and no change in basis compared to the previous day. [2] - CNF quotes and CNF premium information for imported soybeans from different regions are included, such as the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans being 289 cents per bushel and the CNF quote being 477 dollars per ton. [2] 03 Important Fundamental Information - **产区天气** - The future weather outlook (September 30 - October 4) for US soybean - producing states shows that temperatures are generally high and precipitation varies. Some states have above - normal temperatures and above - median precipitation. [3][4] - The weather in the US Midwest will become dry over the weekend and next week, which will help with the harvest. However, scattered showers in the south and east may delay the harvest in the short term but improve drought conditions. [5] - **国际供需** - MPOA estimates that Malaysian palm oil production from September 1 - 20 decreased by 4.26% compared to the same period last month, with different changes in different regions. [7] - ITS and AmSpec data show that Malaysian palm oil exports from September 1 - 25 increased by 12.9% and 11.3% respectively compared to the same period last month. [7][8] - USDA reports show that US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales from September 1 - 18 met expectations, with different trends in current - year and next - year sales. [9][10] - Deral estimates that the soybean production in Paraná state in the 2025/26 season is 2194 tons, slightly lower than the August forecast. [10] - Argentina re - implemented export withholding taxes on grains, beef, and poultry after reaching a sales limit. After a three - day suspension of soybean export taxes, Argentina's soybean exports reached a seven - year high. [9][10] - India purchased 300,000 tons of soybean oil from Argentina in two days, with delivery from October to March next year. [11] - **国内供需** - On September 25, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 2300 tons, a 91% decrease compared to the previous day. [13] - On September 25, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 12.39 tons, a decrease of 12.49 tons compared to the previous day. The operating rate of oil mills was 59.79%, a 1.49% increase from the previous day. [13] - On September 25, the "农产品批发价格200指数" and the "菜篮子" product wholesale price index remained unchanged. The average price of pork decreased by 0.8% and the price of eggs decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous day. [14] 04 Macro News - **国际要闻** - CME's "美联储观察" shows that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 14.5% and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 85.5%. [14] - US economic data such as initial jobless claims, durable goods orders, trade deficit, GDP, PCE, and personal consumption expenditure show different trends compared to expectations and previous values. [14][15] - The eurozone's M3 money supply annual growth rate in August was 2.9%, lower than expected. [15] - **国内要闻** - On September 25, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.1118, up 41 points (yuan depreciation). [16] - On September 25, the Chinese central bank conducted 4835 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 2965 billion yuan. [16] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce decided to launch a trade and investment barrier investigation against Mexico's relevant China - related restrictive measures on September 25. [16] 05 Fund Flows On September 25, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 5.357 billion yuan, including a net outflow of 630 million yuan from commodity futures and 5.276 billion yuan from stock index futures, while treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 564 million yuan. [19] 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant information provided.

| | 收盘价 | 上日 涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油12(BMD) | 4369.00 | 0. 41 | -1. 64 | | 布伦特12(ICE) | 66. 01 | -0.06 | 0. 21 | | 美原油11(NYMEX) | 62. 34 | -0. 03 | 0. 27 | | 美豆11(CBOT) | 1011. 25 | -1.44 | 0. 27 | | 美豆箱12(CBOT) | 280. 20 | -1. 41 | 0. 25 | | 美豆油12(CBOT) | 49. 63 | -1.90 | 0. 38 | | | 最新价 | 漆跌幅(%) | 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 97.29 | -0. 36 | | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | 7. 1106 | -0. 03 | | | 马未林吉特(NYR/USD) | 4. 2040 | 0. 13 | | | 印尼卢比(IDR/USD) | 16575 | 0. 44 | | | 巴西里亚尔( ...

Report Title - "Guofu Bean Series Research Weekly Report: Uncertain Supply and Demand Pattern, US Soybean Prices Maintain Volatile Trend" [1] Report Date - September 22, 2025 [1] Table of Contents Market Review - Covers soybean, bean粕, and soybean oil [4] Production Area Weather - Includes US and Brazilian soybean production area weather [4] International Supply and Demand - Covers US, Brazilian, and Argentine soybeans [4] Domestic Supply and Demand - Covers soybean oil and bean粕 supply and demand [4] Domestic and International Oil Futures and Spot Prices, Spread Situations - Includes basis, monthly spread, variety spread situations, FOB quotes, and CFTC position situations [4] FOB Quotes Brazilian Quotes - November 2025: 302 cents/bu on September 12, 293 cents/bu on September 19, a weekly decline of 12 cents/bu [54] - January 2026: 183 cents/bu on September 12, 180 cents/bu on September 19 [54] - February 2026: 166 cents/bu on September 12, 162 cents/bu on September 19 [54] - March 2026: 138 cents/bu on September 12, 132 cents/bu on September 19 [54] - April 2026: 125 cents/bu on September 12, 120 cents/bu on September 19 [54] - May 2026: 140 cents/bu on September 12, 135 cents/bu on September 19 [54] - June 2026: 142 cents/bu on September 19 [54] - July 2026: 162 cents/bu on September 19 [54] US Gulf Quotes - No specific data provided [54] US West Quotes - No specific data provided [54] Argentine Quotes - November 2025: 250 cents/bu on September 12, 240 cents/bu on September 19, a weekly decline of 10 cents/bu [54]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, international supply - demand, trading volume, macro news, and fund flows. It details the price movements of various commodities, the impact of weather on crops, international trade policies, and macro - economic events that may influence the market. 3. Summary by Directory 01 & 02 Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts such as BMD palm oil, ICE Brent, NYMEX crude oil, CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil are presented. For example, BMD palm oil 12 closed at 4424.00 with a - 0.23% decline [1]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Spot prices and basis for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given. For instance, DCE palm oil 2601 in North China has a spot price of 9450 and a basis of 100 [2]. - **Currency Exchange Rates**: The latest exchange rates and their changes for the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc. are provided. The US dollar index is at 97.64 with a 0.29% increase [1]. 03 Important Fundamental Information - **Weather Conditions**: In the US, soybean - producing states will have generally high temperatures and above - median precipitation from September 24 - 28. The Midwest will have continuous showers, and the west may experience heavy rain, which may affect crop maturity and harvest [3][5]. - **International Supply - Demand**: Malaysia has raised its October CPO reference price to 4268.68 ringgit/ton, keeping the export tariff at 10%. As of September 16, CBOT soybean long - positions increased by 13,986 to 167,351. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting rate reached 0.7%, higher than previous years. Argentina's 2025/26 grain exports may reach a record 105.1 million tons [7][8]. 04 Macro News - **International News**: US Senate Democrats blocked a Republican - proposed temporary funding bill, risking a government shutdown. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut in the last two Fed meetings [16]. - **Domestic News**: On September 19, the USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.1128, up 43 points. The PBOC conducted 3543 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repos, with a net injection of 1243 billion yuan on that day and 5623 billion yuan for the week [18]. 05 Fund Flows On September 19, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 8.463 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 5.599 billion yuan, including 250 million yuan in agricultural products, 1.083 billion yuan in chemicals, 1.118 billion yuan in black - series, and 3.149 billion yuan in metals. Stock index futures had a net outflow of 13.884 billion yuan, and bond futures had a net outflow of 188 million yuan [21]. 06 Trading Volume - On September 19, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 5500 tons, a 74% decrease from the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal was 99,100 tons, an increase of 41,400 tons from the previous day [13]. - The actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills from September 13 - 19 was 2.4275 million tons, with an operating rate of 67.76%. It is expected to decrease slightly in the 39th week [13].

Report Title - The report is titled "Guofu Palm Oil Research Weekly: Bullish and Bearish Factors Intertwined, Palm Oil Price Trends Volatile" [1] Report Date - The report was released on September 22, 2025 [1] Content Summary by Section 1. Market Review - The market review includes BMD Malaysian palm oil and DCE palm oil, but specific data is not provided in the given content [4] 2. Producing Area Weather - The section focuses on palm oil producing area weather, but no detailed information is given [4] 3. International Supply and Demand 3.1 Indian SEA August Report - No content related to the Indian SEA August report is provided [4] 3.2 Malaysian Palm Oil September Forecast - AmSpec data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 15, 2025 were 695,716 tons, a 0.10% decrease from the same period last month and a 5.29% increase from the same period last year. Among them, crude palm oil exports were 95,625 tons, a 31.27% decrease from the same period last month and a 36.50% decrease from the same period last year; 24 - degree palm oil exports were 142,401 tons, a 6.08% increase from the same period last month and a 1.41% decrease from the same period last year; 33 - degree palm oil exports were 96,540 tons, a 67.02% increase from the same period last month and a 5.98% increase from the same period last year; 44 - degree palm oil exports were 70,365 tons, a 12.39% decrease from the same period last month and a 19.59% increase from the same period last year [20] - ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 15, 2025 were 742,648 tons, a 12.55% increase from the same period last month and a 16.83% increase from the same period last year. Major markets include the EU with 167,330 tons (a 20.18% decrease from the same period last month and a 19.17% increase from the same period last year), China with 11,000 tons (a 25.00% increase from the same period last month and an 83.80% decrease from the same period last year), and India and the Indian sub - continent with 122,325 tons (a 5.98% decrease from the same period last month and an 18.02% decrease from the same period last year). Among different types, crude palm oil exports were 99,825 tons (a 27.89% decrease from the same period last month and a 35.24% decrease from the same period last year); 24 - degree palm oil exports were 178,500 tons (a 39.69% increase from the same period last month and a 30.16% increase from the same period last year); 33 - degree palm oil exports were 57,460 tons (a 9.46% increase from the same period last month and a 5.09% decrease from the same period last year); 44 - degree palm oil exports were 71,645 tons (a 4.62% decrease from the same period last month and a 13.12% increase from the same period last year) [21] - SPPOMA data shows that as of September 15, 2025, palm oil production increased by 8.05% compared to September 10, 2025, decreased by 3.17% compared to September 5, 2025, and increased by 6.28% compared to September 5, 2025. FFB yield increased by 6.94% compared to September 10, 2025, decreased by 2.70% compared to September 5, 2025, and decreased by 5.70% compared to September 5, 2025. The extraction rate decreased by 0.21% compared to September 10, 2025, increased by 0.09% compared to September 5, 2025, and decreased by 0.11% compared to September 5, 2025 [22] 3.3 Other Important Information - No other important information content is provided [4] 4. Domestic Supply and Demand - This section includes import profit, palm oil transactions, and palm oil inventory, but no specific data is given [4] 5. Domestic and International Oil Futures and Spot Prices, Spread Situations - This section includes basis, monthly spreads, variety spreads, palm oil warehouse receipt quantity and futures open interest, and FOB quotes, but no specific data is provided [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, macro news, and fund flows. It also presents forecasts on global and regional soybean production, trade, and consumption, as well as the impact of weather on crops [1][7]. Summary by Section 01 & 02 Spot Market - Spot prices and price changes of various commodities such as palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and their related products are presented, along with currency exchange rates and basis data for some futures contracts [1][2]. - For example, the closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil for December is 4439.00, with a previous -day decline of 0.89% and an overnight decline of 0.11% [1]. 03 Important Fundamental Information -产区天气 - - The future weather outlook for major soybean - producing states in the US from September 23 - 27 shows higher - than - normal temperatures and precipitation near to below the median in the Midwest [3]. - The high temperature in the Midwest and rainfall in the west are unfavorable for crop maturity and harvesting, but may help reduce drought and supply water to the Mississippi River [5]. - International Supply and Demand - - IGC predicts that the global soybean production in 2025/26 will be basically flat year - on - year at 4.29 billion tons, and the trade volume in 2024/25 will increase by 2 million tons month - on - month [7]. - As of September 16, about 36% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 22% the previous week [8]. - As of September 11, US soybean export sales increased by 925,300 tons, meeting expectations, and the export shipment volume increased by 31% compared to the previous week [8]. - CONAB estimates that Brazil's soybean production in 2025/26 will increase by 3.6% to 177.67 million tons [10]. - The EU and UK's rapeseed production in 2025 is expected to be 21.6 million tons, higher than the June forecast [10]. - Domestic Supply and Demand - - On September 18, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 380 tons (2%) compared to the previous trading day [13]. - On September 18, the trading volume of soybean meal decreased by 99,200 tons compared to the previous day, and the national oil - mill operating rate decreased by 1.13% [14]. - China's August imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil increased year - on - year, while the cumulative imports from January - August showed different trends [14]. 04 Macro News - International News - - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 8.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 91.9% [17]. - The US Supreme Court will hold an oral argument on November 5 regarding the legality of Trump's large - scale global tariff collection [17]. - Domestic News - - On September 18, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was reported at 7.1085, up 72 points (yuan depreciation) [19]. - On September 18, the Chinese central bank conducted 487 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 195 billion yuan [19]. 05 Fund Flows - On September 18, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 10.858 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net outflow of 6.128 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net inflow of 16.653 billion yuan and bond futures had a net inflow of 390 million yuan [22]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, macro - news, and capital flows. It shows that there are various changes in production, supply - demand, and price trends in the agricultural and energy sectors, and also reflects the impact of macro - economic policies and events on the market [1][13][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, and US soybeans are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 11 (BMD) is 4422.00, with a previous - day increase of 0.07% and an overnight decrease of 0.58% [1] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices and basis of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE soybean oil 2601, and DCE soybean meal 2601 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9560, with a basis of 100 and no change from the previous day [2] - **Exchange Rates**: The latest exchange rates and their changes of major currencies against the US dollar are given, like the US dollar index at 97.00 with a 0.40% increase [1] 3.2 Important Fundamental Information 3.2.1产区天气 - **US Soybean Main - producing States**: The future weather outlook (September 22 - 26) shows that the temperature in the main - producing states is generally high, and precipitation is close to or lower than the median. The Midwest has high temperatures and showers that are mostly unfavorable for crop maturity and harvest [3][5] 3.2.2 International Supply and Demand - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: From September 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 8.05% compared to the same period last month. Different institutions have different estimates of its export volume changes [7][8] - **US Agricultural Products**: Analysts expect that as of the week ending September 11, 2025/26 US soybean export sales will net increase by 40 - 150 million tons, and there are also corresponding expectations for soybean meal and soybean oil export sales [8] - **Canadian Rapeseed**: In 2025, Canada's rapeseed production is expected to increase by 4.1% to 20 million tons, with different production trends in different provinces [10] - **Australian Rapeseed**: The 2025/26 Australian rapeseed production is expected to be 6.1 million tons, a 3.4% increase from the previous forecast [11] - **Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index**: It rose for the fourth consecutive day due to the increase in capesize ship freight rates [11] 3.2.3 Domestic Supply and Demand - **Commodity Trading Volume**: On September 17, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased compared to the previous day, while the trading volume of soybean meal increased. The national dynamic full - sample oil mill operating rate decreased by 1.82% to 67.82% [13][14] - **Production of Refined Edible Vegetable Oil**: In August 2025, China's refined edible vegetable oil production was 4.506 million tons, a 0.3% year - on - year decrease. From January to August, the cumulative production was 34.054 million tons, a 3.0% cumulative year - on - year increase [14] - **Agricultural Product Prices**: On September 17, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index both decreased slightly. The prices of some agricultural products such as pork, beef, and mutton decreased, while the price of eggs increased [14] 3.3 Macro - news 3.3.1 International News - **US Federal Reserve**: The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in October is 12.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 87.7%. The Fed has restarted the rate - cut process, and there are different expectations among officials for future rate cuts [16][17] - **US Economic Data**: Data such as US building permits, new home starts, EIA crude oil inventories, and MBA mortgage application activity index are presented, showing the current economic situation in the US [17][18] - **Indonesian Central Bank**: The Indonesian central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates for the sixth time since last September, aiming to stimulate demand while keeping inflation low [19] - **Eurozone CPI**: The eurozone's August CPI annual rate and monthly rate were both slightly lower than expected [19] 3.3.2 Domestic News - **Exchange Rate**: On September 17, the US dollar/renminbi exchange rate was reported at 7.1013, down 14 points (renminbi appreciation) [21] - **Central Bank Operations**: On September 17, the People's Bank of China conducted 418.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 114.5 billion yuan [21] - **Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure**: From January to August 2025, corporate income tax revenue increased by 0.3% year - on - year, personal income tax revenue increased by 8.9% year - on - year, vehicle purchase tax revenue decreased by 17.7% year - on - year, and stamp duty revenue increased by 27.4% year - on - year [21] 3.4 Capital Flows - On September 17, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 7.386 billion yuan. Among them, commodity futures had a net outflow of 6.727 billion yuan, stock index futures had a net outflow of 862 million yuan, and bond futures had a net inflow of 197 million yuan [25] 3.5 Arbitrage Tracking - No information provided in the report

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, macro - news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It shows that the prices of edible oils, including palm oil, are expected to remain firm due to supply - demand imbalances. The weather in the US soybean - producing areas may impact crop maturity and harvest, and there are various changes in international and domestic supply - demand situations and macro - economic indicators [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Market - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing prices and price changes of various futures such as Brent 11, WTI 10, and CBOT soybeans are presented. Also, the spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are provided [1][2]. - **Exchange Rates**: The latest prices and price changes of the US dollar index and multiple currencies against the US dollar are given, including the Chinese yuan, Malaysian ringgit, and Brazilian real [1]. 3.2 Important Fundamental Information 3.2.1产区天气 - **US Soybean - Producing Areas Weather**: From September 21 - 25, the temperature in US soybean - producing states is generally high, and precipitation is uneven. The Midwest has showers, which are unfavorable for crop maturity and harvest [3][6]. 3.2.2 International Supply and Demand - **Edible Oil Prices**: Kenanga Research expects edible oil prices, including palm oil, to be firm in 2025 and 2026 due to supply lagging behind demand [8]. - **Brazilian Soybean Exports**: Anec estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in September will rise to 753 tons, and soybean meal exports will be 219 tons [8]. - **Brazilian Soybean Production and Processing**: Abiove maintains Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production estimate at 1703 million tons, and adjusts the 2025 soybean processing volume to 5850 million tons [8]. - **Soybean and Oilseed Trade**: There are changes in soybean, soybean meal, and palm oil trade volumes in India, the EU, and other regions. Also, Ukraine's rapeseed exports are affected by tariffs [9][10][11]. 3.2.3 Domestic Supply and Demand - **Oil Product Transactions**: On September 16, the total transaction volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 8% compared to the previous trading day. The soybean meal transaction volume also decreased [14]. - **Inventory and开机率**: As of September 16, the national soybean oil port inventory increased slightly, and the national dynamic full - sample oil mill startup rate decreased slightly [13][14]. 3.3 Macro - News 3.3.1 International News - **US Economic Data**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates is high. There are various economic data such as retail sales, industrial output, and housing market indices in the US. Also, OPEC + will hold a meeting to discuss production capacity estimates [16][17]. - **European Economic Data**: The Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index and industrial output data are presented [17][18]. 3.3.2 Domestic News - **Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy**: On September 16, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate decreased, and the central bank achieved a net injection of 40 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations [20]. 3.4 Fund Flows On September 16, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 22.877 billion yuan, including 4.42 billion yuan in commodity futures, 17.337 billion yuan in stock index futures, and 1.045 billion yuan in treasury bond futures [24]. 3.5 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.