1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions for various commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil, as well as important fundamental information, macro news, fund flow, and arbitrage tracking [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market - The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes are provided for various commodities such as palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil [1] - The latest prices and percentage changes are also presented for several currency pairs including the US dollar index, Chinese Yuan, Malaysian Ringgit, and others [1] Spot Market - The spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal are reported for different regions in China [2] - The CNF premiums, premium changes, and CNF quotes for imported soybeans from different origins are also provided [2] Important Fundamental Information Production Area Weather - Brazil's soybean - growing regions may experience scattered showers, with pod - filling and grain - swelling accelerating in January. However, the hot and dry conditions in the central - eastern part are a concern for soybean growth [4] - In Argentina, the northern part of the main soybean - producing area may have local showers, while the central and southern parts are mostly dry, which may put pressure on soybean growth [4] International Supply and Demand - USDA reported that private exporters sold 13.6 tons of soybeans to China and 23.1 tons to unknown destinations for the 2025/2026 season [6] - Anec estimated Brazil's December soybean exports at 302 tons and December soybean meal exports at 187 tons, down from previous forecasts [6] - The deadline for soybean planting in Brazil's Goiás state is January 2, 2026, and farmers must complete crop registration within 15 days after planting [7] - Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 67.6% to 9.62 tons in the week ending December 21, but decreased by 42.2% year - to - date compared to the previous year [7] - Canada's grain deliveries increased by 14.2% in November 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, with wheat and rapeseed deliveries rising significantly [8] Domestic Supply and Demand - On December 30, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 35,200 tons, a 153% increase from the previous trading day [10] - On December 30, the total trading volume of soybean meal in major Chinese oil mills was 23.73 tons, an increase of 15.14 tons from the previous day. The national oil mill operating rate was 53.46%, up 2.60% [10] - As of December 30, the soybean oil port inventory in China was 103.9 tons, a decrease of 2.7 tons from December 23 [10] - On December 30, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index decreased, while the prices of some agricultural products such as pork, eggs, and white - striped chickens increased [11] Macro News International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January 2026 is 14.9%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 85.1% [14] - The year - on - year growth rate of US Redbook commercial retail sales in the week ending December 27 was 7.6% [15] - The US Chicago PMI in December was 43.5, higher than the expected 39.8 [15] - The year - on - year growth rate of the US S&P/CS20 major cities' unadjusted housing price index in October was 1.3% [15] - The month - on - month growth rate of the US FHFA housing price index in October was 0.4% [15] - The Fed agreed to cut interest rates in December but had in - depth discussions on the risks faced by the US economy. There are differences among Fed officials [15] - The US API crude oil inventory in the week ending December 26 was 174.7 tons, contrary to the expected decrease [16] Domestic News - On December 30, the US dollar/Chinese Yuan exchange rate was reported at 7.0348, up 17 points (depreciation of the Chinese Yuan) [18] - On December 30, the central bank of China conducted 312.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 253.2 billion yuan [18] Fund Flow - On December 30, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 4.02 billion yuan. The net capital outflow from commodity futures was 15.1 billion yuan, while the net capital inflow from stock index futures was 11.725 billion yuan, and the net capital outflow from treasury bond futures was 0.502 billion yuan [22] Arbitrage Tracking - Not provided in the given content

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the agricultural and financial markets, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro news, and fund flows. It provides insights into the supply and demand dynamics of various commodities, as well as the economic and policy environment at both international and domestic levels [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Overnight行情 - Overnight prices and price changes are provided for various commodities such as palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. Currency exchange rates and their changes are also presented [1] Spot行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes are reported for different regions for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal. CNF premiums and quotes are given for imported soybeans from different origins [2] Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - Brazil's soybean - producing regions are expected to receive precipitation this week, which will accelerate soybean pod - filling in January. However, the hot and dry conditions in the central - eastern regions may pose concerns for soybean growth. Argentina's soybean - producing regions are expected to have dry weather this week, which may stress soybean growth [3] 国际供需 - A private exporter reported selling 100,000 tons of soybeans to Egypt for delivery in the 2025/2026 season. The US soybean export inspection volume for the week ending December 25, 2025, was 750,312 tons, meeting expectations. As of December 27, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 97.9%, and the harvesting rate was 0.1% [5][6] 国内供需 - On December 29, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 4200 tons (43%) compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased. The palm oil inventory increased by 4.87% week - on - week, while the soybean oil inventory decreased by 3.07%. The imported soybean port inventory decreased by 6203 tons. Agricultural product prices showed mixed trends [8][9] Macro News 国际要闻 - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January 2026 is 16.1%. The US November existing - home sales contract index monthly rate was 3.3%. Various EIA inventory data for the week ending December 19, 2025, are provided [10] 国内要闻 - On December 29, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted down (yuan appreciation) by 27 points. The Chinese central bank conducted 4823 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 4150 billion yuan [12] Fund Flows - On December 29, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 43.66 billion yuan, including 21.944 billion yuan from commodity futures and 20.358 billion yuan from stock index futures [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the agricultural and energy futures markets, including overnight and spot prices, fundamental information, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It also provides data on domestic and international supply and demand, as well as weather conditions in major producing regions [1][2][4][6][9][11][12][15] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market - The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various futures contracts, including Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, US soybeans, US soybean meal, and US soybean oil, are presented. Additionally, the latest prices and percentage changes of several currency indices are provided [1] 3.2 Spot Market - The report shows the spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions of China, as well as the CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different countries [2] 3.3 Key Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Producing Area Weather - In Brazil, rainfall in eastern São Paulo and Minas Gerais decreased last week but is expected to return this week; weather conditions in other regions are generally favorable for soybean growth. In Argentina, soil moisture in the major soybean - producing areas is mostly suitable for soybean growth [4] 3.3.2 International Supply and Demand - From December 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.12% month - on - month, while export volume increased according to different institutions. In Brazil, the nutritional growth of soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul is satisfactory, and the yield is expected to increase significantly. In Argentina, the soybean planting rate as of December 23 was 77% [6][7] 3.3.3 Domestic Supply and Demand - On December 26, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased, while the trading volume of soybean meal increased. The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 52nd week of 2025 decreased, and the estimated crushing volume in January 2026 increased year - on - year. Pig farming is in a loss, and the prices of agricultural products have changed slightly [9][10] 3.4 Macro News 3.4.1 International News - Japan's November unemployment rate remained stable at 2.6%. Japan's December Tokyo CPI and core CPI annual rates decreased, and the unadjusted CPI monthly rate was negative [11] 3.4.2 Domestic News - On December 26, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate decreased (the yuan appreciated). The central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection on the day and a net withdrawal for the week. The profit of national industrial enterprises from January to November increased slightly year - on - year, but decreased in November [12] 3.5 Fund Flows - On December 26, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 34.966 billion yuan, with different inflow and outflow situations in various sub - markets [15] 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking - Not provided in the content

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions for various commodities, including palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and related products. It also presents important fundamental information such as weather conditions in major crop - producing regions, international and domestic supply - demand situations, and relevant economic and policy news. These factors collectively influence the market trends of the commodities [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - **Commodity Futures**: The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various commodity futures are presented. For example, the closing price of BMD March palm oil is 4035.00, with a previous - day decline of 0.02%. Brent March crude oil on ICE closed at 61.84, down 0.13% from the previous day and 0.23% overnight [1]. - **Currency Exchange Rates**: The latest exchange rates and their percentage changes are given. The US dollar index is at 97.95, up 0.01%. The CNY/USD exchange rate is 7.0471, down 0.07% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - **Futures - Spot Price Relationship**: The spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2605, DCE豆油 2605, and DCE豆粕 2605 in different regions are provided. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2605 in North China is 8600, with a basis of 90 and a basis change of - 20 [2]. - **Imported Soybean Quotes**: The CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different regions are presented. The CNF premium for Brazilian soybeans is 150 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 446 dollars per ton [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information - **Weather Conditions in Producing Areas** - **Brazil**: Weather conditions in most soybean - producing areas are generally favorable for crops, although some regions may face flood risks, and a lack of rainfall in certain areas is a concern [4]. - **Argentina**: Soil moisture in most soybean - producing areas is suitable for soybean growth, and upcoming fronts will bring precipitation [4]. - **International Supply - Demand** - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's palm oil production from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.44%. Indonesia's actions against illegal palm oil enterprises may disrupt production and increase global prices [6]. - **Soybeans**: Argentina's soybean sales data for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons are reported, along with the procurement by local oil mills and the export industry [8]. - **Freight Index**: The Baltic Dry Index decreased slightly but had the largest annual increase since 2016. Different types of ships' freight indices and daily earnings changes are provided [9]. - **Domestic Supply - Demand** - **Oil and Meal**: On December 24, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased, while the trading volume of soybean meal increased. The national average oil - mill operating rate rose [11]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" decreased. The average prices of pork and eggs also declined [11]. - **International Economic Data** - **Interest Rate Expectations**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January and March 2026 is presented [12]. - **Unemployment and Mortgage Rates**: The US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20 were 21.4 million, lower than expected. The 30 - year fixed - mortgage rate decreased [12]. - **Data Release Delay**: Due to the US federal government holiday, the release of EIA's crude oil and natural gas inventory data was postponed [12]. - **Domestic News** - **Exchange Rate**: On December 24, the USD/CNY exchange rate decreased, indicating RMB appreciation [14]. - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank carried out 260 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on December 24, resulting in a net withdrawal of 208 billion yuan. On December 25, it will conduct 4000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations [14]. 3.4 Fund Flows On December 24, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 205.42 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 63.14 billion yuan, with different sub - sectors having different net inflow/outflow situations. Stock index futures had a net inflow of 141.68 billion yuan, and treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 0.86 billion yuan [17]. 3.5 Arbitrage Tracking There is no specific content provided in the report for this section.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions of various commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and their related products. It also analyzes important fundamental information such as weather conditions in major production areas, international supply - demand dynamics, and macro - economic news both internationally and domestically [1][2][4][6][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Conditions - The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various commodities are presented. For example, the closing price of BMD March palm oil is 4016.00, with a previous day's increase of 2.07% and an overnight increase of 0.73%. The latest prices and percentage changes of several currencies are also given, like the US dollar index at 98.29, down 0.42% [1] Spot Market Conditions - On December 23, 2025, the spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2605, DCE soybean oil 2605, and DCE soybean meal 2605 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2605 in North China is 8570, with a basis of 110 and no change from the previous day [2] Important Fundamental Information Production Area Weather - In Brazil, the weather in most soybean - growing areas is generally favorable for crop growth, but the significant reduction in precipitation in the eastern parts of São Paulo and Minas Gerais states may be a concern. In Argentina, most areas have suitable soil moisture for soybean growth, and upcoming fronts will bring precipitation [4] International Supply - Demand - Indonesia's 2026 biofuel quota is 15.646 billion liters, similar to 2025. The country plans to increase the palm oil blending ratio to 50% (B50) next year. The USDA export sales report shows that as of December 11, US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil exports have different net increases and shipment situations. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop production is estimated at 178.3 million tons, and Argentina's November soybean crushing and inventory data are also provided. The Baltic Dry Index has dropped to a five - month low [6][7][9][10] Domestic Market Transactions and Inventory - On December 23, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 77% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the national major oil mills'开机 rate increased to 58.35%. The national soybean oil port inventory decreased by 2.6 million tons from December 16 to December 23 [11] Macro - economic News International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January 2024 is 13.3%, and there are various US economic data such as GDP, consumer confidence index, and API crude oil inventory [13] Domestic News - On December 23, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted down (yuan appreciation) by 49 points. The Chinese central bank conducted 59.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 76 billion yuan [15] Market Capital Flow - On December 23, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 9.651 billion yuan, with different capital flow situations in commodity futures, stock index futures, and bond futures [17] Arbitrage Tracking - Not provided in the content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The market situation of various agricultural products and energy commodities is complex. The production of Malaysian palm oil has declined, and its export volume shows different trends according to different institutions' data. The soybean production and export in the Americas are affected by weather and market demand. The domestic trading volume and inventory of agricultural products also show different changes, and the macro - economic situation at home and abroad has an impact on the market [5][6][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Quotes - The closing prices and price changes of multiple commodities are presented, including BMD's March palm oil futures (4016.00, up 2.07% the previous day and 0.73% overnight), ICE's March Brent crude oil futures (61.54, up 2.36% the previous day and 0.31% overnight), and NYMEX's February US crude oil futures (57.95, up 2.49% the previous day and 0.29% overnight) [1]. - The latest prices and price changes of multiple currencies are also provided, such as the US dollar index (98.29, down 0.42%), and the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar (7.0572, up 0.03%) [1]. Spot Market Quotes - The spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE's palm oil 2601, soybean oil 2605, and soybean meal 2605 in different regions are given. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 8420, with a basis of 110 and no change in basis overnight [2]. - The CNF premiums, premium changes, and CNF quotes of imported soybeans from different regions are presented. The CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans is 149 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 444 dollars per ton [2]. Important Fundamental Information Production Area Weather - The weather conditions in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil are favorable or continuously improving. There will be sporadic showers in some states before Tuesday, and the overall soil moisture is improving [3]. - In the main soybean - producing areas of Argentina, most areas have suitable soil humidity for soybean growth after a frontal passage brought widespread rainfall last weekend [3]. International Supply and Demand - From December 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.15% month - on - month, with a 6.26% decline in fresh fruit bunch yield per unit and a 0.17% decrease in oil extraction rate [5]. - Different institutions' data on Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 20 show different trends. AmSpec reported a 0.87% decrease compared to the same period last month, while SGS reported a 43.6% increase [5][6]. - The MPOC expects that the Malaysian palm oil market will stabilize in 2026, with exports increasing to 16.2 million tons and production growing moderately to 19.7 million tons [6]. - Indonesia's palm oil exports in November decreased by 13.4% month - on - month to 1.748 million tons [7]. - USDA data shows that the US soybean export inspection volume in the week ending December 18, 2025, was 870,199 tons, in line with expectations [7]. - USDA export sales reports for the week ending December 4 show that US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil have different export sales and shipment situations. For example, US soybean export sales increased by 40% compared to the previous week, and the export shipment increased by 33% [8]. - Analysts expect that in the week ending December 11, US soybean export sales will net increase by 1.8 - 2.9 million tons, soybean meal by 275,000 - 550,000 tons, and soybean oil by 500 - 24,000 tons [9][10]. - As of December 20, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 97.6%, and AgRural expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to reach 180.4 million tons [10]. - Brazil exported 2,442,367.61 tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of December, with an average daily export volume 70% higher than that of the whole month of December last year [11]. - The Baltic Dry Index continued to decline on Monday, with all ship - type freight indices weakening [11]. Domestic Supply and Demand - On December 22, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 68,700 tons, a 304% increase from the previous trading day [13]. - On December 22, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills increased by 40,600 tons compared to the previous day, and the overall oil mill operating rate was 55.88%, a 0.16% decrease from the previous day [13]. - As of December 19, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 700,000 tons, a 7.25% increase from the previous week, and the soybean oil inventory was 1.1235 million tons, a 1.22% decrease from the previous week [13]. - China's palm oil imports in November 2025 were 334,052.37 tons, a 52.25% month - on - month increase; soybean imports were 8.10736476 million tons, a 14.50% month - on - month decrease [14]. - On December 22, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index decreased slightly compared to last Friday [16]. Macroeconomic News International News - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 19.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 80.1% [18]. - The US Chicago Fed National Activity Index in November was - 0.21, lower than the expected - 0.17 [18]. - A former Bank of Japan board member said that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates three times to 1.5% during the remaining term of Governor Ueda Kazuo until early 2028 [18]. Domestic News - On December 22, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0572, up 22 points (depreciation of the Chinese yuan) [20]. - On December 22, the People's Bank of China conducted 67.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 63.6 billion yuan due to the maturity of 130.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [20]. Market Capital Flow On December 22, 2025, the net inflow of funds into the futures market was 17.854 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 17.605 billion yuan into the commodity futures market and a net outflow of 14 million yuan from stock index futures and 30 million yuan from treasury bond futures [22]. Arbitrage Tracking No information provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The palm oil prices declined this week due to the MPOB data showing an unexpected inventory build - up in November, an expected increase in supply and decrease in demand in the first 10 days of December, and the drop in international crude oil prices. Attention should be paid to high - frequency data from palm oil producing areas, import demand changes in major consuming regions, and relevant national biodiesel policies [8][11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **BMD Malaysian Palm Oil**: As of December 12, the BMD Malaysian palm oil 02 contract closed at 4,018 ringgit/ton, down 3.23% from last week. The November production decreased by 5.30% month - on - month to 1.936 million tons, while exports dropped by 28.13% month - on - month to 1.213 million tons. The production in the first 10 days of December is expected to increase by 6.87% month - on - month, and exports are predicted to decrease [8]. - **DCE Palm Oil**: The main contract switched to 2605. As of December 12, the 2601 contract closed at 8,608 yuan/ton, down 1.85% from last week, and the 2605 contract closed at 8,552 yuan/ton, down 2.40% from last week. Spot prices from foreign suppliers declined, with a slight increase in inventory and weak downstream trading [11]. 3.2 Producing Area Weather - **Malaysian Producing Area Weather**: From December 6 - 12, most areas had precipitation at or below the historical normal level, except for some parts. From December 13 - 19, most areas are expected to have precipitation above or at the historical normal level, except for Sabah [14][16]. - **Indonesian Producing Area Weather**: From December 6 - 12, different parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan had varying precipitation levels compared to the historical normal. From December 13 - 19, rainfall in major palm oil - producing areas in Indonesia is expected to be above or at the historical normal level [19][21]. 3.3 International Supply and Demand - **MPOB November Report**: Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory in November increased by 13.04% month - on - month to 2.835 million tons. Production decreased by 5.30% month - on - month to 1.936 million tons, exports dropped by 28.13% month - on - month to 1.213 million tons, and imports decreased by 36.12% month - on - month to 23,000 tons [23]. - **December Forecast for Malaysian Palm Oil**: - **Export Forecast**: AmSpec data shows a 10.31% decrease in exports from December 1 - 10 compared to the same period last month, and ITS data shows a 15% decrease. Exports to different regions and for different palm oil products also changed [30][31]. - **Production Forecast**: SPPOMA data indicates that from December 1 - 10, the yield per unit area increased by 7.24%, the oil - extraction rate decreased by 0.07%, and production increased by 6.87% compared to the same period last month [32]. - **Other Important Information**: Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to reach 20 - 20.5 million tons this year. The USDA estimates global 2025/26 palm oil production at 80.016 million tons, with a downward revision of 800,000 tons from last month [34]. 3.4 Domestic Supply and Demand - **Import Profit**: The inversion of the palm oil import profit for January - March 2026 shipments widened this week [35]. - **Palm Oil Transactions**: The weekly palm oil trading volume increased to 1,600 tons as of December 12, up 900 tons or 129% from last week [38]. - **Palm Oil Inventory**: As of December 5, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions in China was 683,700 tons, up 4.62% from last week and 32.32% from the same period last year [40][41]. 3.5 Domestic and International Futures, Spot Prices, and Price Spreads of Oils - **Basis, Monthly Spread, and Variety Spread**: There are various data and charts showing the basis, monthly spread, and variety spread of palm oil, such as the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in different regions against the 05 contract, the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil, and the spreads between different oil varieties [43][49]. - **Palm Oil Warehouse Receipt Quantity and Futures Open Interest**: There are data and charts presenting the palm oil warehouse receipt quantity and the open interest of the 05 contract [55]. - **FOB Quotes**: There are charts showing the FOB quotes of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia [58].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The price of palm oil declined this week. The decline of BMD Malaysian palm oil was mainly affected by factors such as the unexpected inventory build - up in November, the expected increase in supply and decrease in demand in the first 10 days of December, and the drop in international crude oil prices. The decline of DCE palm oil was influenced by the above - mentioned factors and the decrease in import costs [8][11]. - The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is expected to rise slightly by the end of December. There is a risk that the inventory may approach or slightly exceed 3 million tons if export weakness persists or demand recovery is slower than normal [34]. - Global palm oil production, ending stocks, and exports in the 2025/26 period are all expected to be lower than last month's estimates [34]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 BMD Malaysian Palm Oil - As of December 12, the BMD Malaysian palm oil 02 contract closed at 4,018 ringgit/ton, down 3.23% from last week. The price decline was due to factors like the unexpected inventory build - up in November, expected supply - demand changes in December, and the drop in international crude oil prices. In November, production decreased by 5.30% month - on - month to 1.936 million tons, while SPPOMA data showed a 6.87% month - on - month increase in production in the first 10 days of December. Exports in November decreased by 28.13% month - on - month to 1.213 million tons, and exports in the first 10 days of December are expected to decline [8]. 1.2 DCE Palm Oil - This week, the main contract of DCE palm oil switched to the 2605 contract. As of December 12, the 2601 contract closed at 8,608 yuan/ton, down 1.85% from last week, and the 2605 contract closed at 8,552 yuan/ton, down 2.40% from last week. The price decline was affected by the unexpected inventory build - up in Malaysian palm oil in November, expected supply - demand changes in December, and the decrease in import costs. Spot prices also decreased, with a slight increase in inventory and weak downstream transactions [11]. 2. Production Area Weather 2.1 Malaysian Production Area Weather - From December 6 - 12, most areas had precipitation at or below the historical normal level, with some areas having 15 - 100mm higher or lower. From December 13 - 19, most areas are expected to have precipitation at or above the historical normal level, except for the Sabah region [14][16]. 2.2 Indonesian Production Area Weather - From December 6 - 12, precipitation in different parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan was either above or below the historical normal level. From December 13 - 19, rainfall in the main palm - oil producing areas of Indonesia is expected to be generally at or above the historical normal level [19][21]. 3. International Supply and Demand 3.1 MPOB November Report - In November, Malaysian palm oil's ending inventory increased by 13.04% month - on - month to 2.835 million tons. Production decreased by 5.30% month - on - month to 1.936 million tons, exports decreased by 28.13% month - on - month to 1.213 million tons, and imports decreased by 36.12% month - on - month to 23,000 tons [23]. 3.2 Malaysian Palm Oil December Forecast - **Export Forecast**: AmSpec data showed a 10.31% decrease in exports from December 1 - 10 compared to the same period last month, and ITS data showed a 15% decrease [30]. - **Production Forecast**: SPPOMA data indicated a 6.87% month - on - month increase in production in the first 10 days of December, with a 7.24% increase in FFB yield and a 0.07% decrease in oil extraction rate [32]. 3.3 Other Important Information - Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to reach 20 - 20.5 million tons this year. Inventory is expected to rise slightly by the end of December, and there is a risk of inventory approaching or exceeding 3 million tons. Global 2025/26 palm oil production, ending stocks, and exports are all expected to be lower than last month's estimates [34]. 4. Domestic Supply and Demand 4.1 Import Profit - This week, the import profit of palm oil for January - March 2026 shipments showed a wider negative spread [35]. 4.2 Palm Oil Transactions - This week, palm oil transactions increased. As of December 12, the weekly transaction volume was 1,600 tons, an increase of 900 tons or 129% from last week [38]. 4.3 Palm Oil Inventory - As of December 5, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 683,700 tons, a 4.62% increase from last week and a 32.32% increase from the same period last year [40][41]. 5. Domestic and International Futures and Spot Prices and Spreads of Oils 5.1 Basis, Monthly Spread, and Variety Spread - **Palm Oil Basis and Monthly Spread**: The report presents the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in different regions against the 05 contract and the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil [44][48]. - **Variety Spread and POGO Spread**: The report shows the international soybean - palm oil spread, POGO spread, international rapeseed - palm oil spread, international sunflower - palm oil spread, domestic soybean - palm oil spread, and domestic rapeseed - palm oil spread [50][54]. 5.2 Palm Oil Warehouse Receipt Quantity and Futures Positions - The report provides the quantity of DCE palm oil warehouse receipts and the positions of the 05 contract [56]. 5.3 FOB Quotations - The report shows the FOB quotations of 24 - degree palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia [59].

Report Title - The report is titled "Guofu Bean Series Research Weekly Report: Weak Expectations for US Soybean Export Demand, Decline in CBOT Soybean Prices" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The CBOT soybean price declined due to weak US soybean export demand, improved rainfall in South American soybean - growing areas, and a drop in US soybean oil prices. The US soybean export demand is expected to remain weak, while the US soybean crushing outlook is positive. The USDA December report maintained the forecast for the 25/26 US soybean ending stocks at 290 million bushels [9]. Summary by Directory I. Market Review 1. Soybeans - As of December 12, the CBOT soybean 01 contract closed at 1076.25 cents per bushel, down 2.62% from the previous week. The decline was due to weak export demand, improved rainfall in South American soybean - growing areas, and a drop in US soybean oil prices. The USDA December report did not adjust the 25/26 US soybean production forecast, and the export demand forecast remained unchanged. The US soybean crushing expectation is still at a high level [9]. 2. Soybean Meal - **External Market**: As of December 12, the CBOT soybean meal 01 contract closed at $302.0 per short - ton, down 1.76% from the previous week, affected by the weakening of CBOT soybean prices and sufficient supply expectations [13]. - **Domestic Market**: As of December 12, the DCE soybean meal 2605 contract closed at 2770 yuan per ton, down 1.81% from the previous week, driven by a decline in soybean import costs and potential increases in soybean supply from state - reserve auctions. However, the slow pace of domestic US soybean purchases may support the price. The soybean crushing volume and operating rate of oil mills decreased slightly but remained at a high level. The downstream soybean meal trading increased, and the spot basis strengthened [17]. 3. Soybean Oil - **External Market**: As of December 12, the CBOT soybean oil 01 contract closed at 50.07 cents per pound, down 3.15% from the previous week, affected by the decline in international crude oil prices and related competing vegetable oil prices [21]. - **Domestic Market**: The DCE soybean oil main contract switched to 2605. As of December 12, the DCE soybean oil 2601 contract closed at 8240 yuan per ton, down 0.31% from the previous week, and the 2605 contract closed at 7994 yuan per ton, down 1.06%. The decline was due to a drop in soybean import costs and high domestic oil mill soybean oil inventories. The soybean crushing volume and operating rate of oil mills were at a high level, downstream trading demand was average, and the soybean oil spot basis remained volatile [24]. II. Growing Area Weather 1. Brazilian Soybean Growing Area Weather - **Past Week (12.5 - 12.12)**: Rainfall in Goiás and Rio Grande do Sul was above normal, and the rest of the areas had normal rainfall. Temperatures in the central - western part of the main soybean - growing area and parts of Paraná were below normal, and the rest of the areas had normal temperatures [26]. - **Next Week (12.14 - 12.21)**: Rainfall in the central - western part of the main soybean - growing area is expected to be above normal, and the rest of the areas will have normal rainfall. Temperatures in Mato Grosso, Goiás, and Paraná are expected to be below normal, and the rest of the areas will have normal temperatures [27]. 2. Argentine Soybean Growing Area Weather - **Past Week (12.5 - 12.12)**: Rainfall in parts of Córdoba and Santa Fe was above normal, parts of Buenos Aires had less rainfall, and the rest of the areas had normal rainfall. The overall temperature in the main soybean - growing area was normal [33]. - **Next Week (12.14 - 12.21)**: Rainfall and temperature in the main soybean - growing area are expected to be normal [35]. III. International Supply and Demand 1. US Soybeans - **USDA Monthly Report - US Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The USDA December report made minor adjustments to the 24/25 US soybean supply - demand balance sheet, keeping the 24/25 ending stocks forecast at 316 million bushels. The 25/26 balance sheet was unchanged, with the ending stocks forecast at 290 million bushels, in line with the November report and lower than the market expectation of 309 million bushels [43]. - **Crushing**: As of the week of December 5, 2025, the soybean crushing profit in Illinois, the prices of downstream soybean oil and soybean meal all declined. The US soybean crushing volume in October was 7.11 million short - tons, up 9.86% year - on - year. As of October 2025, the cumulative crushing volume in the 25/26 season was 13.26 million short - tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.87%. The US crude soybean oil inventory was 1.353 billion pounds, up 20.25% year - on - year, and the soybean meal inventory was 346,300 short - tons, up 14.14% year - on - year [44][48]. - **Export Inspection & Export Sales**: The US soybean export inspection volume increased week - on - week and met expectations, with the cumulative year - on - year decline slightly narrowing. As of the week of December 4, 2025, the export inspection volume was 1,018,127 tons. The cumulative export inspection volume so far in this crop year was 12,899,667 tons, a 45.24% year - on - year decrease. The cumulative year - on - year decline in 25/26 US soybean export sales continued to widen. As of the week of November 13, 25/26 cumulative export sales (including unshipped) were 18.4025 million tons, a 41.09% year - on - year decrease [52][53]. - **US Soybean Crushing Profit**: As of December 12, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was $64.29 per ton, down from $66.54 on December 5 [57]. - **D4 RINs Price**: As of December 12, 2025, the US D4 RINs price was 104 cents, down 3.5 cents from December 5 [58]. 2. Brazilian Soybeans - **USDA Monthly Report - Brazilian Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The USDA December report maintained the 25/26 Brazilian soybean production forecast at 175 million tons, in line with market expectations. It also raised the 25/26 Brazilian soybean import forecast by 150,000 tons to 500,000 tons, and the ending stocks forecast was raised to 3.651 million tons [61]. - **Soybean Production Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 Brazilian soybean production, with the USDA forecasting 175 million tons [64]. - **Soybean Sowing**: As of December 5, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 90.3% according to CONAB, 94% according to AgRural. The sowing progress in Rio Grande do Sul was 76% as of December 11, and the sowing in Paraná was 100% complete as of December 9, with a good - rate of 89% [65]. - **Export Sales**: Anec raised the forecast for Brazilian soybean exports in December to 3.33 million tons. As of the first week of December 2025, Brazil had exported 970,900 tons of soybeans that week, and the cumulative export volume was 105.78 million tons, an 8.53% year - on - year increase. As of the 49th week of 2025, the 2025 sales progress was 95.17%, and the 2026 pre - sale progress was 28.56% [74]. - **Soybean Premium**: As of the week of December 12, 2025, the Brazilian soybean premium quote increased [77]. - **Brazilian Soybean Crushing Profit**: As of December 12, 2025, the Brazilian soybean crushing profit was $70.99 per ton, down from $77.68 on December 5 [79]. 3. Argentine Soybeans - **USDA Monthly Report - Argentine Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The USDA December report raised the 24/25 Argentine soybean crushing forecast by 100,000 tons to 4.322 million tons, and the 24/25 ending stocks forecast was lowered to 2.309 million tons. For 25/26, the production forecast was maintained at 4.85 million tons, and the ending stocks forecast was lowered by 100,000 tons to 2.284 million tons [83]. - **Soybean Sowing**: As of the week of December 11, 2025, the Argentine soybean sowing progress was 58% according to SAGyP and 58.6% according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. The good - rate of sown soybeans was 58%, and the proportion of soil in good moisture condition in the main growing areas was 91% [84]. - **Farmer Sales**: As of the week of December 3, 2025, Argentine farmers' 24/25 soybean export sales increased week - on - week. As of the 49th week of 2025, the 2025 sales progress was 84.7%, and the 2026 pre - sale progress was 6.4% [88][90]. - **Argentine Soybean Crushing Profit**: As of December 12, 2025, the Argentine soybean crushing profit was $2.18 per ton, up from $1.57 on December 5 [93]. IV. Domestic Supply and Demand 1. Soybean Oil Supply and Demand - **Chinese Imported Soybean Procurement Progress**: The weekly procurement progress of Chinese imported soybeans as of December 9, 2025, was provided by McDonald Pelz [95]. - **Port and Oil - Mill Soybean Inventory**: As of December 5, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.37 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 206,000 tons, and the oil - mill soybean inventory in the 49th week was 7.1552 million tons, a 2.51% week - on - week decrease [97]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival and Crushing**: In the 49th week, the domestic full - sample oil - mill soybean arrival was about 1.898 million tons. In the 50th week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 2.0375 million tons, and the operating rate was 56.05% [100]. - **Soybean Oil Trading Volume**: As of the week of December 12, 2025, the weekly trading volume of soybean oil was 82,600 tons, down from 136,900 tons in the previous week [102]. - **Soybean Oil Production and Apparent Consumption**: In the 50th week, the soybean oil production of 125 major domestic oil mills was 376,900 tons, and the apparent consumption in the 49th week was 396,100 tons, both showing a decline [105]. - **Soybean Oil Inventory**: As of December 5, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.163 million tons, a 1.34% week - on - week decrease and an 18.40% year - on - year increase [108]. 2. Soybean Meal Supply and Demand - **Soybean Meal Production and Apparent Consumption**: As of the week of December 12, 2025, the soybean meal production was 1.6096 million tons, a 0.89% week - on - week decrease, and the apparent consumption as of the week of December 5 was 1.6654 million tons, a 1.42% week - on - week decrease [110]. - **Oil - Mill Soybean Meal Inventory and Feed - Mill Physical Inventory Days**: As of December 5, 2025, the oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 1.1619 million tons, a 3.43% week - on - week decrease. As of December 12, the feed - mill physical inventory days were 9.13 days, a 0.64 - day week - on - week increase [113]. - **Soybean Meal Trading and Pick - up**: As of the week of December 12, 2025, the soybean meal trading volume was 912,100 tons, a 30.04% week - on - week increase, and the pick - up volume was 972,640 tons, a 5.55% week - on - week increase [116]. - **Downstream Demand**: The losses in self - breeding and self - raising pig farming and purchased - piglet farming slightly improved. As of December 3, the national pig ex - factory price and the pig - grain ratio both declined [118][120]. - **Soybean Meal Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: As of December 12, the registered quantity of DCE soybean meal warehouse receipts was 23,830 lots [122]. V. Domestic and International Oil Futures and Spot Prices, Spread Situations 1. Basis, Calendar Spread, and Cross - Commodity Spread - **Soybean Oil Basis and Calendar Spread**: Relevant data on the basis of Jiangsu, Guangzhou, Fujian, Shandong, Henan, and Tianjin first - grade soybean oil against the 05 contract and the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil are presented [126][138]. - **Soybean Meal Basis and Calendar Spread**: Data on the basis of 43% soybean meal in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Tianjin against the 05 contract and the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal are provided [136][141]. - **Cross - Commodity Spread**: Information on the 05 spread between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and the 05 ratio of soybean oil/soybean meal, corn/soybean meal is given [143][145]. 2. FOB Quotes - Quotes for soybean oil, US soybean meal, Argentine soybean meal, and Brazilian soybean meal FOB are presented [147][148][154]. 3. CFTC Positioning - Data on the net long positions of CBOT soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil managed funds are provided [152][155].

Industry Investment Rating - Kenanga Research maintains a "neutral" view on the plantation sector [7] Core View - The report presents overnight and spot market conditions for various commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and related products. It also provides important fundamental information such as weather in major production areas, international supply - demand data from USDA reports, and macro - economic news both internationally and domestically. These factors collectively influence the investment opportunities and risks in the agricultural commodity market [1][2][4] Summary by Directory Overnight Market - Overnight closing prices and percentage changes are provided for commodities like Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, US soybeans, US soybean meal, and US soybean oil. Exchange rate data for multiple currencies are also given [1] Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes are presented for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions. CNF quotes and CNF premiums for imported soybeans from different origins are also included [2] Important Fundamental Information Production Area Weather - Brazil's soybean - growing regions will have widespread rainfall, which is beneficial for crop growth. Argentina's main soybean - producing areas have good soil moisture, but some areas face drought risks [4] International Supply - Demand - USDA estimates for the 2025/26 palm oil season show a downward revision in production, ending stocks, and exports compared to last month. Kenanga Research expects edible oil supply to improve in 2026 but remain tight overall. Felda and FGV will resume operations in their palm oil plantations in Terengganu. USDA's December oilseed report provides data on soybean ending stocks, production, and other supply - demand indicators for the US, Brazil, and Argentina. Other supply - demand data for soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil are also presented, along with export forecasts for Brazil and Argentina [6][7][9] Domestic Market Transactions - On December 9, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills decreased, with changes in spot and far - month basis trading volumes. The national dynamic full - sample oil mill operating rate increased. The national soybean oil port inventory decreased. The national pork supply was sufficient in November, and the price decreased slightly [15] Macroeconomic News International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December and January is high. ADP's weekly employment report shows an average increase in private - sector jobs. US economic indicators such as the NFIB small - business confidence index, JOLTs job openings, and the Conference Board leading index are presented, along with API crude oil inventory data [17] Domestic News - On December 9, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate increased (yuan depreciation). The Chinese central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds [19] Fund Flow - On December 9, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 16.149 billion yuan, with outflows in commodity futures, stock index futures, and treasury bond futures [21] Arbitrage Tracking - No specific content provided in the given text [22]