黑色：围绕关税博弈，价格偏弱运行

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding the industry investment ratings is provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of black - related products are mainly influenced by tariff games, showing a generally weak - running trend. For different products, the market situations and investment strategies vary [4][34][60][108]. - For rebar, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading due to factors such as tariff impacts on exports and insufficient peak - season demand [4][5]. - For hot - rolled coils, the price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. Short - term trading is recommended as the supply - demand relationship is in adjustment, affected by international games and domestic policies [34][35]. - For coking coal and coke, the coking coal price may be under pressure to oscillate, and the coke market shows a weak supply - demand balance. A neutral wait - and - see approach is recommended [60]. - For iron ore, considering the current situation and future expectations, it is expected to have a small rebound or maintain an oscillating trend in the near term, and a strategy of shorting on rebounds is suggested [108]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar - Investment Strategy: Wait and see or short - term trading. The price is expected to oscillate weakly due to tariff games, low probability of large - scale domestic stimulus policies in the short term, and potential peak demand [4][5]. - Market Review: The spot price first decreased and then increased, with the Hangzhou third - grade rebar at 3170 yuan/ton last Friday, down 70 yuan/ton from before the holiday. The futures price opened lower and oscillated weakly, with the rebar 05 contract at 3050 yuan/ton, down 114 yuan/ton from before the holiday. The basis strengthened, with the rebar 05 contract basis at 120 yuan [15]. - Steel Mill Profits: The immediate profit of steel mills declined slightly. The long - process profit was about 120 yuan/ton in East China, and the short - process flat - electricity profit was about - 118 yuan/ton. The profitability of 247 sample steel mills was 53.68% (- 1.73%) [19]. - Futures Valuation: The rebar futures price dropped near the electric - furnace valley - electricity cost, higher than the long - process cost, with a static valuation at a moderately low level [21]. - Supply - Demand Pattern: Last week, the rebar production increased by 3.72 tons to 232.37 tons, the apparent demand increased by 2.99 tons to 252.68 tons, and the inventory decreased by 20.31 tons to 777.76 tons [29]. 3.2 Hot - Rolled Coils - Investment Strategy: Short - term trading. The price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation as the supply - demand relationship is in adjustment, affected by international games and domestic policies [34][35]. - Valuation: The spot price increased, with the Shanghai hot - rolled coil 4.75 at 3250 yuan/t last Friday, down 100 yuan/t from the previous week. The futures price oscillated strongly, with the hot - rolled coil 10 contract at 3242 yuan/t, down 118 yuan/t from the previous week. The basis strengthened by 18 yuan, with the hot - rolled coil 10 contract basis at 28 yuan. The cost decreased, and the profit remained stable, with the steel - union hot - rolled coil profit at about - 8 yuan/t (18 yuan/t), and the profitability of 247 sample steel mills at 53.68% (- 1.73%) [39][40]. - Drivers: The output of five major steel products increased, while the hot - rolled coil output decreased. The demand gradually weakened, with the steel - union hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreasing. The inventory showed continuous destocking, but there was still pressure on factory inventory accumulation [44][46][52]. 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - Investment Strategy: Neutral wait - and - see. For coking coal, the short - term price may be under pressure to oscillate. For coke, the market shows a weak supply - demand balance, and it is difficult for price increases to be implemented in the short term [60]. - Coking Coal: The domestic coking coal spot price decreased, and the overseas price also showed a downward trend. The basis widened, and the production in major producing areas gradually recovered. The upstream inventory continued to be destocked. The total inventory was 2727.22 million tons (+ 12.80), with the mine inventory at 335.50 million tons (- 4.20), the downstream inventory at 1745.32 million tons (+ 24.18), and the 16 - port inventory at 646.40 million tons (- 7.18) [66][71][83]. - Coke: The spot price stabilized. The basis converged. The daily average pig - iron output increased significantly, and the overall inventory fluctuated little. The total inventory was 1052.59 million tons (+ 0.97), with the full - sample coking plant inventory at 107.30 tons (- 10.17), the downstream steel - mill inventory at 667.99 tons (- 4.88), and the 18 - port inventory at 277.30 million tons (+ 16.02) [87][90][102]. 3.4 Iron Ore - Investment Strategy: Short on rebounds. The price is expected to have a small rebound or maintain an oscillating trend in the near term, entering a stage of expected increased supply and decreased demand in the future [108]. - Market Review: The spot price decreased, with the Qingdao Port's various - grade iron ore discount - to - futures prices down. The futures price also decreased, with the iron ore 09 contract at 708 yuan/ton last Friday, down 35.5 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 5 - 9 spread widened [109][124]. - Supply: Domestically, the production increased, with the capacity utilization rate of 186 domestic mining enterprises at 63.38%, up 0.61%, the daily average iron - concentrate output at 49.49 million tons, up 0.48, and the inventory at 109.43 million tons, up 2.5. Overseas, the Australian shipment decreased, with the total Australian and Brazilian iron - ore shipment at 2393.1 million tons, down 254.7 million tons week - on - week [130][136]. - Port Situation: The arrival volume decreased, the number of ships in port increased, and the dredging volume remained at a high level. The port inventory decreased, with the 45 - port iron - ore inventory at 14341.02 million tons, down 127.39 million tons week - on - week [141][142]. - Steel - Mill Demand: The pig - iron output has not reached its peak. The profitability of 247 steel enterprises was 53.25%, unchanged week - on - week. The daily average pig - iron output was 236.26 million tons, up 5.67 million tons week - on - week. The furnace - charge ratio was sinter ore 73.73%, pellet ore 14.16%, and lump ore 12.11% [151].