高盛：中国：3 月贷款和信贷数据强于预期

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook on the industry, highlighting stronger-than-expected loan and credit data in March, suggesting a favorable investment environment. Core Insights - March total social financing (TSF) flows and new RMB loans exceeded market expectations, primarily driven by a robust expansion of short-term corporate loans [1][4] - The government bond issuance was higher than seasonal trends, indicating a front-loaded fiscal easing and policy-mandated credit expansion [1][4] - The report anticipates further monetary policy easing and additional fiscal support in the upcoming quarters due to potential growth challenges from US tariffs [1] Summary by Sections Loan and Credit Data - New RMB loans in March reached RMB 3640 billion, significantly above the Bloomberg consensus of RMB 3000 billion and GS forecast of RMB 3100 billion [2] - Outstanding RMB loan growth was 7.4% year-on-year in March, up from 7.3% in February, indicating a steady increase in lending activity [2][10] - Total social financing (TSF) flow was RMB 5888 billion in March, surpassing the Bloomberg consensus of RMB 4961 billion [2][10] TSF and M2 Growth - TSF stock growth accelerated to 8.4% year-on-year in March, compared to 8.2% in February, reflecting a strong credit environment [3][9] - M2 growth remained stable at 7.0% year-on-year in March, aligning with GS's forecast [3][11] Government Bond Issuance - The net issuance of government bonds was RMB 1625 billion in March, slightly lower than February's RMB 1688 billion, but still indicative of strong fiscal support [9][12] - The fiscal account showed a surplus of RMB 819 billion year-to-date, contrasting with a deficit of RMB 286 billion in the previous year, highlighting improved fiscal management [11]