反弹持续性有待确认，拥抱黄金

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sustainability of the rebound remains to be confirmed, and it is advisable to embrace gold. The current primary contradiction is not employment and inflation but tariff policies. After a significant valuation correction, the PE has become reasonable but not undervalued. Whether corporate earnings expectations will be adjusted due to tariffs depends on the ongoing Q1 earnings reports, and whether there will be an earnings correction in the future requires further confirmation. Although the 90 - day delay in tariff implementation has provided some relief to the market, uncertainties still persist. Therefore, a defensive approach is the main strategy, and it is recommended to invest in gold, which has a hedging property [2][3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro Data - As of the week ending April 5, the number of initial jobless claims was 223,000, in line with the forecast, and the four - week moving average remained unchanged, indicating overall stability in the employment market. In March, the CPI was 2.4% year - on - year, better than the expected 2.5%; month - on - month, it was - 0.1%, better than the expected 0.1%. The core CPI was 2.8% year - on - year, better than the expected 3%; month - on - month, it was 0.1%, better than the expected 0.3%. In April, the preliminary reading of the 1 - year inflation expectation in the University of Michigan survey soared to 6.7%, a new high since 1981, higher than the expected 5.2% and the previous value of 5%; the preliminary reading of the 5 - year inflation expectation was 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.1%. The preliminary reading of the consumer confidence index was 50.8, significantly lower than the expected 53.5 and the previous value of 57 [3][8][9]. Market Sentiment - The US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) reached 678.44 points, with a weekly moving average of 676.57 points, a new high since 2018, mainly due to the inconsistent tariff policies of the Trump administration, which disrupted market expectations and caused significant market fluctuations. The retail sentiment indicator compiled by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) showed that 58.9% of US retail investors were bearish on the stock market, while 28.5% were bullish, with a bull - to - bear ratio of 0.48, an improvement from the previous value (0.35), but pessimism still prevailed. The Fear and Greed Index remained in the 'Extreme Fear' zone for three consecutive weeks, closing at 13 points; among its seven sub - indicators, only 'Junk Bond Demand' showed 'Fear', while the other six showed 'Extreme Fear' [3][16][17]. Global Market - The global equity market rose 3.4% last week, with developed markets (4.4%) outperforming emerging markets (- 3.9%), and the US stock market led the global market. Gold continued its upward trend, rising 7.2% last week, and it has been rising across all observed time frames. Bitcoin was weak, with a weekly increase of - 0.3% [3][22]. Industry Performance - Among the 36 secondary industries in the US stock market, 31 rose and 5 fell. Industries such as national defense and military, non - ferrous metals, and semiconductors had relatively large increases. The absolute values of the top three gainers were much larger than those of the bottom three. Eleven secondary industries outperformed the S&P 500 index (5.7%) [24]. S&P 500 Component Stocks - Among the S&P 500 component stocks, 372 stocks rose last week, accounting for 74%, and the number of rising stocks increased significantly compared to the previous week. The top - ranked stocks in terms of gains were NEWMONT, BROADCOM, CONSTELLATION ENERGY, PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES, GE VERNOVA, etc. Among the 20 core component stocks, Broadcom led with a weekly increase of 24.4%, while ExxonMobil performed the worst with a weekly decrease of - 1.2% [26][28]. Volume and Price Indicators - The strong secondary industries were semiconductors, software services, medical equipment and services, etc. The estimated average daily capital intensity of the semiconductor industry last week was approximately $325.4 billion, ranking first. Last week, the estimated capital inflows were relatively concentrated in stocks such as NVIDIA, TESLA, and PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES [30][32]. Market Valuation - In the past week, the static PE of the S&P 500 was 24.3 times, the Bloomberg Forward PE rose slightly from 19 times to 19.8 times, an increase of 4.3%; the Bloomberg - predicted EPS decreased slightly from $268 to $266, a decrease of 0.5% [34]. Gold Industry - As of April 10, 2025, the price of the gold industry was in the range of 10.7x P/E to 19.3x P/E, at a relatively low level; the P/E in Q2 2025 is expected to rebound significantly, and the earnings per share (EPS) in Q2 2025 is expected to rebound significantly. In the short term, the gold price has shown obvious fluctuations due to tariff policies. In the long term, factors such as the expectation of more severe stagflation in the US after the tariff increase, global economic and political uncertainties, and the gold - buying demand of emerging market central banks may support the gold price [37][41].