【PP周报】成本与需求向下VS供应减量预期-20250414

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Polypropylene is in a phase of oscillating downward, and the price center is expected to decline in the future. In late 2024, multiple new units were put into operation intensively, and the production of units in 2025 continued throughout the year, resulting in huge production pressure. Meanwhile, the existing production load was also high, leading to a supply much higher than the historical average. Although the demand has entered the traditional peak season, the support is limited. Overall, due to over - capacity, the supply - demand relationship is weak, and the expectation of crude oil on the cost side is also weak, so the price center of polypropylene is expected to move down oscillatingly [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Basis and Spread - Basis: Affected by the tariff storm and the sharp decline in crude oil, the PP price dropped significantly at the beginning of the week but temporarily stopped falling and stabilized due to supply concerns. The East China basis remained at around - 20 yuan/ton, the North China basis ranged from 10 to - 100 yuan/ton, and the South China basis strengthened from 80 to - 70 yuan/ton. The non - standard basis showed a similar trend but was generally stronger than the standard product [19]. - Regional Spread: The North China - East China spread was relatively strong, while the South China - East China spread was at a low level. The spread between injection molding - drawing and low - melt copolymer - drawing in the non - standard basis changed little [30][31]. - Related Product Spread: The 5 - 9 monthly spread of the futures strengthened to 124 during the week and then fell back to 76, indicating a weaker far - month expectation. The L - PP06 spread weakened to a minimum of 50 this week, and the PP - Wh spread increased slightly. The significant decline in the L - P3 spread was due to the potential production loss of the BBI process on the PP supply side caused by the propane import tariff counter - measure and the weaker demand for PE after the peak season. With the large - scale restart of Iranian plants, the load recovered and the shipping volume exceeded expectations, MA dropped sharply, and the MTO profit was significantly repaired to the level of the same period last year [36]. 3.2 Domestic Production - End Profit and Supply - Production Profit: After the sharp decline last week, the crude oil price oscillated this week. The oil - making profit improved due to the weakening of the cost side. On April 4, the tariff on imported propane from the US increased, which would increase the import cost of liquefied petroleum gas in the short term and tighten the domestic supply. In the long term, the domestic pricing target may shift to ether - after carbon four. High production and weak demand led to a decline in coal prices, resulting in good CTO profits, and the decline in methanol prices in the production area slightly improved MTO profits [41][42]. - Domestic Output and Load: This week, the PP output was 73.16 tons (- 0.04 tons), and the operating rate was 76.38% (- 0.05%). The supply loss of PP was 19.28 tons, including 12.47 tons of maintenance loss and 6.81 tons of production reduction loss. The previously shut - down units restarted one after another, the maintenance volume decreased, and the supply increased. In the future, attention should be paid to the maintenance of PDR units. On the other hand, the significant repair of oil - making profit increased the willingness to start production [8][59]. - Scheduling Ratio: An increase in the drawing scheduling ratio may indicate that the standard product is stronger than the non - standard product in the short term, but the medium - term supply pressure may increase [78]. 3.3 US Dollar Price and Import - Export Profit - US Dollar Price and Spread: The prices in Europe and the US declined, especially in Northwest Europe. Asian prices mostly fell, and CFR Far East was greatly affected by the tariff policy. The demand in Southeast Asia was weak, and market transactions were cautious. The South Asian prices remained stable. The spread between CFR China and Northwest Europe was at a low level [87][88]. - Import - Export Profit: Although the RMB exchange rate weakened, the concern about tariffs led to a significant decline in overseas inquiries and export transactions, making it difficult to consume resources. On the import side, the overseas offers were few and expensive, and imports were blocked [104]. 3.4 Downstream Operating Rate - The downstream is still in the peak season. The comprehensive operating rate decreased slightly by 0.03% month - on - month. In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies on the downstream. The operating rate of plastic weaving remained flat, the demand for fertilizer bags continued, and the demand for cement and food was also acceptable. In addition, the operating rate of injection molding increased by 1.2%, and the operating rate of pipes decreased by 0.8%. As the temperature rises, the demand for storage boxes, milk tea cups, and disposable transparent products continues to be released [9][107]. 3.5 Inventory - The inventory of production enterprises increased by 2.07 tons to 63.71 tons, including a 1.07 - ton increase in the inventory of two major oil companies and a 0.7 - ton increase in the inventory of coal - chemical enterprises. The market risk - aversion sentiment increased, and the downstream purchasing willingness weakened. The inventory of traders decreased by 0.54 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.02 tons. Due to the decrease in overseas inquiries and the decline in export transactions, the port inventory fluctuated slightly [10][123].