宏观策略周报：美国关税政策有所放松，全球风险偏好大幅升温-20250414

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term maintain a cautious long position for the four major A - share stock index futures (IH/IF/IC/IM); maintain a cautious wait - and - see attitude for commodities and treasury bonds; in terms of ranking: stock index > treasury bonds > commodities [2] 2. Core View of the Report - Although the US tariff risk has been escalating recently and the short - term RMB exchange rate has weakened, the domestic capital market and economic stimulus policies have increased their support, leading to a rebound in the short - term domestic market and a cautious long position for stock indexes. In the bond market, due to increased external risks, greater fluctuations in domestic risk assets, and enhanced expectations of central bank easing, bond prices have rebounded in the short - term with a cautious long position. In the commodity market, although the US dollar has weakened in the short - term, the tariff policy has increased the expectation of an economic recession, resulting in a significant correction in the overall commodity market [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Important News and Events - Stock Market Impact: On April 7, the rumor that the US would suspend tariffs for 90 days caused market turmoil, with the Nasdaq index rising from a 5% drop to over a 4% increase and the S&P index rising over 3% [4] - Economic Forecast Adjustment: On April 7, Goldman Sachs raised the probability of the US economy falling into a recession in the next 12 months from 35% to 45% and lowered the GDP growth forecast for the fourth quarter of 2025 from 1.0% to 0.5% [4] - Fed's Stance: On April 9, the Fed meeting minutes showed that most participants believed inflation might be more persistent, and all agreed to keep interest rates unchanged due to high economic uncertainty. Officials expected tariffs to increase inflation this year, with inflation risks skewed upwards and employment risks downwards [4] - Inflation Data: On April 10, the US March CPI同比 growth was 2.4%, significantly lower than the previous month and market expectations, leading to increased expectations of Fed rate cuts [5] - Unemployment Data: On April 10, the US initial jobless claims were 223,000, in line with expectations [6] - Consumer Confidence: On April 11, the preliminary value of the US April Michigan Consumer Confidence Index was 50.8, lower than expected, and the one - year inflation expectation was at its highest level since 1981 [6] - Tariff Exemption: On April 11 (announced on April 12, US time), the US exempted some products from "reciprocal tariffs" [7] - EU's Response: On April 9, the EU voted to impose a 25% tariff on US imports in retaliation for the US tariff on EU steel and aluminum in March. On April 10, the EU agreed to suspend the counter - measures for 90 days [7][8] - China's Policy Response: China announced a series of policies to support the domestic economy and capital market, including potential monetary and fiscal policy adjustments, and also took counter - measures against US tariff threats [8][9][10][11][13][14][15] 3.2 This Week's Important Events and Economic Data Reminders - From April 14 - 18, a series of economic data will be released, including China's trade data, GDP data, and inflation data from various countries, as well as industrial production and employment data [17] 3.3 Global Asset Price Movements - Stock Market: Most global stock indexes showed fluctuations last week, with some rising and some falling. For example, the Nasdaq index rose 7.29% week - on - week, while the Hang Seng Index fell 8.47% week - on - week [18] - Bond Market: Bond yields in different countries changed, with the US 10 - year Treasury yield rising 47 BP week - on - week [18] - Commodity Market: Commodity prices also fluctuated. For example, COMEX gold rose 6.89% week - on - week, while ICE Brent crude oil fell 1.88% week - on - week [18] - Exchange Rate Market: The US dollar index fell 2.84% week - on - week, and major currency pairs against the US dollar had different trends [18] 3.4 Domestic High - Frequency Macroeconomic Data - The report presents various high - frequency macroeconomic data charts, including those related to upstream (such as commodity indexes, energy prices), mid - stream (such as iron ore prices, steel production), and downstream (such as real estate sales, automobile sales) sectors [19][46][76] 3.5 Domestic and International Liquidity - Global Liquidity: Shown through charts of US Treasury yields and their weekly changes [103] - Domestic Liquidity: Demonstrated by charts of central bank open - market operations, inter - bank lending rates, and bond yields and their weekly changes [99][100][101] 3.6 Global Financial Calendar - Lists important economic indicators, their previous values, forecast values, and release times from April 14 - 18, 2025, covering multiple countries and regions [117]