关注关税谈判进展，短线反弹

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report suggests that the short - term tin price will rebound. The reasons include the end of mutual tariff increases between China and the US, the US delaying the implementation of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, which may stimulate market sentiment. The Fed's inflation concerns and potential domestic stimulus policies also boost market sentiment. Additionally, the decline in smelter开工率 and the decrease in inventory contribute to the short - term price rebound [2][56]. Summary by Directory 1. When - week Macro Data/Events - On April 14 (Monday, 23:00), the US March New York Fed 1 - year inflation expectation will be released. - On April 15 (Tuesday, 17:00), Germany and the Eurozone's April ZEW economic sentiment index and economic current situation index will be announced, and at 20:30, the US April New York Fed manufacturing index will be released. - On April 16 (Wednesday, 10:00 and 20:30), domestic first - quarter economic data and the US March retail data will be released, and at 21:15, the US March industrial output and capacity utilization will be announced. - On April 17 (Thursday, 01:15 and 20:15), Fed Chairman Powell will speak at the Chicago Economic Club, and the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision. At 20:30, the US March new housing starts, building permits, and April Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index will be released. - On April 18 (Friday, 07:30), Japan's March inflation data will be released [4]. 2. Tin Concentrate: Attention to Wabang Resumption News - From April 7 - 11, the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan remained at 12,700 yuan/ton, and that of 60% tin concentrate in Jiangxi and Hunan remained at 8,700 yuan/ton. - The total tin concentrate imports in January and February were 18,587 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 50%. The quantity from Myanmar was 4,910 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 81%, while imports from Australia increased to 3,840 tons from 1,930 tons in the same period last year [6]. 3. Refined Tin: Smelter Operating Rate Declines, Import Window Remains Closed - From April 7 - 11, the combined operating rate of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi was 56.75%, a 0.21% decrease from the previous week and a 6.5% decrease from the high in the week of March 7. - The tin ingot imports in January and February were 4,203 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.6%. From April 7 - 11, the import profit and loss fluctuated between - 13,243 and - 6,535 yuan, and the import window remained closed. Indonesia's refined tin exports in February were 3,927 tons, a 150% increase from January [9][10]. 4. Tin Solder: Attention to the Impact of AI and Policies on Consumption - In January, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the solder operating rate dropped to 53.26%. In February, it is expected to rebound to 70.55%. - As of February 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of global semiconductor sales was 17.1%. On April 11, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index reached 3,991 points. - From January to February, China's semiconductor production was 76.72 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%, and the export of integrated circuits was 47.329 billion, a year - on - year increase of 20.1%. - In January and February, the total mobile phone production was 217 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 6.1%; the computer production was 47 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%; the optoelectronic device production was 266.1 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. - From January to February, the domestic photovoltaic cell production was 87.36 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The export volumes of photovoltaic modules in January and February were 958 million and 713 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 40% and 18%. As of April 11, the domestic photovoltaic glass operating rate was 69.23%, a 0.92% increase from the previous week, and the inventory turnover days of photovoltaic glass enterprises were 25.95 days, a 0.42% decrease from the previous week. - As of April 11, the weekly PVC operating rate was 76.67%, a 3.35% decrease from the previous week. The weekly profit of the ethylene method was - 628 yuan/ton, and that of the calcium carbide method was - 781 yuan/ton. As of April 6, the number of real - estate transactions in 30 cities was 16,788 units, a week - on - week increase and roughly the same as the previous year. From January to February, the cumulative real - estate construction area was 6,059.72 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.1%, and the cumulative real - estate completion area was 87.64 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.6% [23][24][30][37]. 5. Inventory: Weekly Social Inventory Decreases - From April 4 to April 11, the tin ingot social inventory decreased by 342 tons to 11,662 tons, the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 310 tons to 9,818 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 150 tons to 3,140 tons [46]. 6. Price: Attention to Tariff Negotiation Progress, Short - term Rebound - From April 7 - 14, the weighted position of Shanghai tin decreased from 90,740 lots to 68,291 lots as the tin price declined. Considering the end of mutual tariff increases between China and the US, potential domestic stimulus policies, the decline in smelter operating rate, and the decrease in inventory, the short - term tin price will rebound [54][56].