中美关税冲突对电力行业影响点评：以史为鉴，国内用电量受中美关税冲突影响有限，水电板块有望跑赢大盘

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the public utility sector, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark index by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [5][34]. Core Insights - The impact of the US-China tariff conflict on domestic electricity consumption is limited, with the electricity consumption from the top four export industries to the US accounting for approximately 0.68% of total social electricity consumption in 2024 [2][27]. - Historically, during the last tariff conflict phase from March 2018 to January 2020, the hydropower sector outperformed the market, suggesting a potential for similar performance in the current context [3][28]. - The report suggests focusing on hydropower stocks with strong defensive attributes, such as Yangtze Power and Sichuan Investment Energy, as well as thermal power stocks with performance support like Huadian International and Anhui Energy [3][31]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Limited Impact of Tariff Conflict on Domestic Electricity Consumption - The export volume of the top four industries to the US has seen a slight decline over the past two years, with 2024 exports projected at $438.9 billion, a recovery from$410.9 billion in 2023 [10][16]. - The electricity consumption from the top four export industries to the US is relatively small, with a total of approximately 67 billion kWh, which is less than 2.3% of total electricity consumption [2][27]. Section 2: Hydropower Performance During Tariff Conflict - During the previous tariff conflict, the hydropower sector demonstrated significant excess returns compared to other energy sectors, benefiting from its defensive characteristics [3][28]. - The report highlights that hydropower stocks are expected to perform well again, with specific recommendations for stocks like Yangtze Power and Sichuan Investment Energy [3][31]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on hydropower stocks with strong defensive attributes and thermal power stocks that have solid performance support [3][31]. - The historical performance of hydropower during the last tariff conflict suggests a favorable outlook for similar conditions in the current market [3][28].