中国经济高频观察（2025年4月第2周）房地产销售边际走弱

Economic Trends - Recent high-frequency data indicates a marginal weakening in China's economy, particularly in real estate sales and domestic demand for automobiles and express delivery services[2] - Steel and construction materials show a mixed production trend, with rebar and wire rod demand increasing, while plate products related to exports and manufacturing are declining[2] Industrial Production - Production of raw materials like steel, cement, and asphalt has rebounded, while the operating rates of major chemical products are mixed, with some recovering and others declining[2] - Textile-related polyester production has increased, but the operating rates for PTA and automotive tires have decreased[2] Investment Insights - Construction site funding availability has improved, with a 0.55 percentage point increase in funding rates, although still below last year's levels[2] - Apparent demand for rebar, wire, and cement has increased, but remains weaker than the previous year[2] Real Estate Market - New home sales in 61 sample cities have seen a year-on-year decline of 17.2%, with a 16.1% drop since April, indicating a significant slowdown[2] - Second-hand home sales in 15 sample cities have also decreased, with a year-on-year growth of only 9.2% this week[2] Domestic Demand - Overall domestic transport remains stable, with a slight recovery in freight traffic, although retail sales for automobiles and express services have slowed down[2] - Major home appliance retail sales have increased by 31.4% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in consumer electronics[2] External Demand - Recent data shows an increase in port container throughput by 11.1% year-on-year, suggesting a potential export surge ahead of tariff changes[2] - China's export container shipping rates have stabilized with a slight increase of 0.4%, ending a continuous decline since mid-January[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include insufficient growth policies, unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns, and escalating geopolitical conflicts[2]