海外宏观周报：美国关税戏剧性反复

Group 1: U.S. Economic Policy Changes - The U.S. tariff policy has undergone dramatic reversals since the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2, with tariffs on Chinese goods raised to 125% and a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on most trade partners[3] - The Federal Reserve's March meeting minutes highlighted economic uncertainty due to tariff policies, leading to a cautious stance from the Fed[5] - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a budget plan to raise the debt ceiling by $5 trillion over the next decade, despite concerns about fiscal sustainability[7] Group 2: Inflation and Consumer Confidence - U.S. March CPI and PPI inflation rates exceeded expectations, with core CPI rising 2.8%, the lowest growth rate in four years[8] - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index fell to 50.8, the second-lowest level in history, with one-year inflation expectations reaching 6.7%, the highest since 1981[10] - The GDPNow model predicts a Q1 GDP annualized rate of -2.4%, indicating potential economic contraction[11] Group 3: Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets showed volatility, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq rising 5.7%, 5.0%, and 7.3% respectively for the week, but still down 5.4%, 4.8%, and 5.0% since April 2[14] - U.S. Treasury yields surged, with the 2-year yield rising 28 basis points to 3.96% and the 10-year yield up 47 basis points to 4.48%[18] - The dollar index fell 3.06% to 99.77, marking its first drop below 100 since July 2023, with the Swiss franc and euro gaining the most among non-U.S. currencies[22]