短暂利多，但市场很可能再度交易美国经济衰退

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper - Fluctuations Intensify [1] Core View of the Report - In the short term, the fundamentals are bullish and the macro - sentiment has turned positive, leading to a rebound in Shanghai copper. However, there is a high probability that the market will trade the US economic recession again, and copper prices may fall again at any time [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - Weekly changes: Shanghai copper closed at 75,230 yuan/ton (-4.60%), LME copper at 9,184 dollars/ton (-1.95%), and New York copper at 4.5055 dollars/pound (-6.03%). The Shanghai electrolytic copper premium was - 5 yuan/ton, and the LME (0 - 3) was 37.39 dollars/ton. Social inventory was 267,200 tons, and Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 86,600 tons, with continuous inventory reduction [3] - Last week, copper prices experienced a roller - coaster market. The decline was due to Trump's global tariff war, and the rebound was due to factors such as the expected Fed rate cut, tariff deferral, and the weakening of the US dollar. But the market's concern about the US economic recession is deepening [3] Trading Logic - In the short term, the fundamentals are bullish and the macro - sentiment has turned positive, but there is a risk of the market trading the US economic recession again and copper prices falling [4] - The processing fee inversion is deepening, the possibility of supply reduction is increasing, and smelting production may decline in April. The consumption peak season effect remains, with copper rod and tube production at a high level and continuous inventory reduction [4] - The current macro - sentiment is temporarily positive due to possible Fed monetary policy, cooling tariff disputes, and the weakening of the US dollar. But the market's concern about the US economic recession is rising [4] Strategy Suggestion - Pay attention to the strategy of buying put options in the follow - up [5]