2025年3月外贸数据点评：3月出口：从已知看未知

Export Data Overview - In March 2025, China's exports increased by 12.4% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the expected 3.5% and reversing the previous month's decline of -3%[3] - Imports in March 2025 decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, aligning with expectations and contrasting with a 1.5% increase in the previous month[3] Factors Influencing Export Performance - The primary driver for the March export surge was seasonal effects, as early Spring and a low base from the previous year contributed to higher year-on-year figures[3] - "Rush exports" occurred ahead of tariff increases, with significant contributions from ASEAN, Latin America, and Africa, collectively boosting exports by 4.8 percentage points[3] Future Export Trends - Export growth is expected to decline in Q2 2025, potentially falling between -5% to -10% year-on-year due to the impact of tariff escalations and weakening external demand[4] - Recent logistics data indicates a significant drop in port cargo volumes, suggesting a slowdown in export activity[4] Potential Upside Factors - Signals of tariff exemptions may provide some relief, with an estimated $100 billion worth of products eligible for exemptions, potentially easing export pressures[5] - Continued "rush exports" and shifts in trade patterns towards ASEAN and other regions may sustain some export momentum[5] Risks and Policy Responses - The government is likely to implement policies aimed at mitigating employment risks due to external shocks, focusing on high-tech manufacturing sectors with significant export exposure to the U.S.[7] - If tariffs are enforced as planned, the direct impact on foreign trade revenues could exceed 1.2 trillion yuan for affected industries[7]