宏观周报：本周看什么？稳市机制-20250414

Market Stability Mechanism - The establishment of an "internal stability long-term mechanism" in the capital market is expected to be gradually enhanced through the support of a quasi-"stabilization fund" [4] - The Central Huijin Investment Ltd. has positioned itself as the "national team" in the capital market, emphasizing its role in stabilizing the market by increasing holdings in ETFs [4] - Policies aimed at stabilizing the market have been introduced, including adjustments to insurance fund investment ratios to allow for greater equity asset allocation [9] Macroeconomic Data Insights - High-frequency macro data indicates an increase in the prosperity of real estate, steel, and transportation sectors, while the petrochemical, non-ferrous metals, and construction materials sectors are still in need of recovery [4] - The average daily sales of passenger cars have increased by 10.45% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in consumer demand [16] - The commercial crude oil inventory stands at 442,345 thousand barrels, reflecting a decrease of 3.26% year-on-year [16] Investment Recommendations - Short-term investment strategies should focus on domestic policies that mitigate tariff disruptions, while the stock market should monitor the U.S. tariff actions and the construction of market stabilization forces [4] - The upcoming April Politburo meeting is highlighted as a key observation window for potential policy directions [4] - The bond market is expected to maintain low volatility in interest rates until domestic policies addressing tariff disruptions are implemented [4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy support falling short of expectations, ineffective policy implementation, and slower-than-anticipated economic recovery [4]