瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20250414

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall output of domestic methanol has increased slightly, with the output from restored production capacity exceeding that from maintenance and production - reduction capacity. The inventory of inland enterprises continues to decline, and most enterprises maintain low - level inventory. The port inventory of methanol continues to decline, and the short - term arrival volume of foreign vessels is expected to remain low, so the port inventory may fluctuate within a limited range. The operating rate of the domestic methanol - to - olefins industry has increased month - on - month, and attention should be paid to whether the maintenance plan of the Shenghong MTO unit in mid - April will be implemented. The mutual tariff increase between China and the US has limited direct impact on methanol prices, but it has caused market concerns about trade contraction, which may still disrupt the market in the short term. It is recommended to observe more and take less action, mainly in a wait - and - see mode [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2376 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is 90 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the main contract is 359,638 lots, a decrease of 46,071 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 38,561 lots, a decrease of 15,637 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7,756, an increase of 600 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2205 yuan/ton, an increase of 42.5 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 92.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 54 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 274 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 349 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 289 euros/ton, an increase of 1 euro/ton. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 75 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.54 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.03 US dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 400,000 tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 169,800 tons, an increase of 4,700 tons. The import profit of methanol is 104.86 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.79 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 561,800 tons, a decrease of 480,500 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 254,600 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 88.24%, an increase of 2.03 percentage points [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 52.09%, a decrease of 0.41 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 9.34%, an increase of 1.83 percentage points. The operating rate of acetic acid is 86.44%, a decrease of 3.96 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE is 65.53%, an increase of 1.35 percentage points. The operating rate of olefins is 87.05%, a decrease of 0.53 percentage points; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 739 yuan/ton, an increase of 48 yuan/ton [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 21.64%, a decrease of 1.66 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 19.12%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 26.42%, a decrease of 1.75 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 0.95%, a decrease of 25.48 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of April 9, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 314,300 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons or 0.88% from the previous period; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 254,600 tons, an increase of 31,200 tons or 13.98% from the previous period. As of April 9, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 569,800 tons, a decrease of 46,300 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased by 51,000 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 4,700 tons. As of April 10, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 87.05%, a month - on - month increase of 0.32% [2]