食品饮料行业周报：关税变局下内需走强，板块韧性凸显-20250414

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry [1][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights the resilience of the food and beverage sector amid changing tariffs and strengthening domestic demand, particularly benefiting the liquor segment [5][11]. - Recent performance shows that the food and beverage sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a 0.26% increase compared to a 3.37% decline in the index over the two weeks from March 31 to April 11, 2025 [3][18]. - The liquor segment is expected to benefit from increased domestic demand due to the escalation of the US-China tariff conflict, with a focus on companies like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye [5][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the two weeks from March 31 to April 11, 2025, the food and beverage sector rose by 0.26%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.64 percentage points [3][18]. - The snack segment saw the highest increase at 10.70%, followed by soft drinks at 6.03% and dairy products at 4.68% [3][18]. - Notable stock performances included Beiyinmei (+41.72%), Xibu Muye (+41.11%), and Yanjinpuzi (+24.24%) leading the gains, while Huangshi Group (-17.37%) and others faced declines [3][18]. Liquor Segment - The liquor sector experienced a slight decline of 1.14% over the same two-week period, but rebounded by 4.10% from April 8 to April 11 [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand for liquor companies, especially in light of recent tariff conflicts [5][11]. - Key recommendations include Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and other leading liquor brands [7][12]. Consumer Goods - The report notes that the consumer goods sector is benefiting from policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand and increasing birth rates, particularly in the dairy segment [8][10]. - Companies like China Feihe and Yili have announced substantial subsidies to support families, which is expected to boost sales in the dairy sector [8][10]. - The report highlights the strong performance of snack companies, particularly those focusing on low-calorie konjac products, with Salted Fish and Wei Long leading the market [9][10]. Valuation and Recommendations - As of April 11, 2025, the dynamic price-to-earnings ratio for the food and beverage sector stands at 21.45x, indicating a mid-range position among primary industries [26][30]. - The report recommends several stocks across different segments, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and various consumer goods companies like Yili and Salted Fish [12][29].