建材、建筑及基建公募REITs周报：周观点：“关税”交易的三个阶段-20250414

Investment Rating - Non-metallic building materials: Buy (Maintain) [4] - Construction and Engineering: Overweight (Maintain) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report discusses three phases of the "tariff" trade, highlighting the impact of high tariffs between China and the US on domestic substitution and the potential benefits for companies with local production facilities [1][2] - The first phase focuses on domestic substitution due to high tariffs, suggesting attention to companies like Quartz Co., Kaisheng Technology, and Feiliwa, which are positioned to benefit from this trend [1] - The second phase indicates a global economic downturn due to a 10% tariff imposed by the US, leading to increased pressure on manufacturing and capital expenditure, with a recommendation to focus on state-owned enterprises and index-weighted stocks [1][2] - The third phase anticipates domestic policy adjustments aimed at boosting consumption and infrastructure investment, with specific recommendations for companies in the construction materials sector [2] Summary by Sections Phase 1: Domestic Substitution - Companies benefiting from domestic substitution include Quartz Co. (domestic sand for semiconductors), Kaisheng Technology (synthetic quartz sand), and Feiliwa (leading semiconductor quartz products) [1] - US-based companies like Puyang Nayi and China Jushi are expected to benefit from high tariff barriers [1] Phase 2: Global Economic Impact - The imposition of a 10% tariff by the US is expected to lower global economic forecasts, increasing demand risks and putting pressure on manufacturing [1][2] - Recommendations include focusing on state-owned enterprises such as China State Construction, China Railway Construction, and China Chemical [1][2] Phase 3: Domestic Policy Adjustments - Anticipated policy measures include boosting consumption, expanding into non-US markets, and structural investment opportunities in infrastructure [2] - Key companies to watch include cement and glass leaders like Anhui Conch Cement and Qibin Group, as well as consumer building materials leaders like Skshu Paint and Beixin Building Materials [2] Market Data Tracking - The report notes a decline in the CITIC Building Materials Index by 2.56% and the CITIC Construction Index by 3.29% during the reporting period [3] - Specific price data includes an average price of 398.33 CNY/ton for PO42.5 cement and 1269 CNY/ton for glass, with respective changes noted [3]