美国“股债汇”多杀：危机重重？

Economic Impact - The U.S. import tariffs are projected to increase from 2.5% in 2024 to 16.5%, the highest level since 1937, potentially raising $1.5 trillion in revenue from base tariffs and $1.3 trillion from punitive tariffs over the next decade[7] - The increase in tariffs is expected to reduce U.S. GDP by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, with a direct impact of nearly 2% on disposable income for American households in 2025[7] - Recent tariffs may lead to an overall inflation increase of 2.3% in the U.S., with food prices rising by 2.8% and automobile prices by 8.4%, costing the average American household approximately $3,800 annually[7] Market Reactions - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen by nearly 50 basis points recently, indicating a significant market reaction to economic data and commodity price fluctuations[11] - The U.S. dollar index has experienced a substantial decline, reflecting a "crisis of trust" in the dollar amidst rising Treasury yields[12] - The recent volatility in the financial markets has led to skepticism regarding the effectiveness of fundamental and technical analysis, with tariff negotiations becoming a primary focus for short-term investors[5] Inflation Data - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March increased by 2.4% year-on-year, the lowest level in seven months, slightly below the expected 2.5%[8] - The core CPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year, marking the lowest increase since March 2021, indicating a potential easing of inflationary pressures[8] Government Response - The U.S. Treasury is closely monitoring the rise in the 10-year Treasury yield, which is considered a key performance indicator (KPI) for the government[16] - The Trump administration may need to pursue a comprehensive trade agreement or rely on a significant economic downturn in non-U.S. economies to restore confidence if tariff policies remain unchanged[16]