ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2025-04-14 12:41Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [8][13][57] Core Viewpoints - The ongoing global tariff disputes have led to significant fluctuations in base metal prices, with a potential for limited further downside in prices as negative sentiment dissipates [8][13][57] - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying the next investment opportunities, particularly in rigid supply commodities like aluminum and copper [8][13][57] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The A-share market experienced an overall decline, with the non-ferrous metal sector underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.26 percentage points [20][22] - Domestic metal prices saw a substantial drop, with LME copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc showing weekly changes of -4.6%, -3.6%, -1.6%, and -2.1% respectively [22][20] Macroeconomic Factors - In March, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the PPI fell by 2.5% [35][40] - The U.S. CPI for March was reported at 2.4%, indicating a short-term inflation bottom, with the dollar index declining to 99.77 [40][41] - The Eurozone showed signs of economic recovery, with manufacturing PMI rising to 48.6 and services PMI at 51 [49][51] Base Metals Inventory - The report highlights a comprehensive destocking trend across base metals, with aluminum prices dropping below 20,000 yuan due to tariff disruptions [6][55] - For aluminum, the operating capacity remained stable at 43.805 million tons, with production holding steady at 84.01 tons [7][55] - Global copper inventories saw a significant reduction, with domestic inventories decreasing by 5.04% to 358,800 tons [10][11] Aluminum and Alumina Insights - The aluminum processing sector's average operating rate fell to 62.2%, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [7][55] - Alumina production decreased due to concentrated maintenance events, leading to a short-term tightening of supply [8][9] - The report notes that alumina prices have declined, with the latest price at 2,881 yuan per ton, down 4.92% from the previous week [9][95] Copper and Zinc Analysis - The copper concentrate processing fees have continued to decline, with domestic electrolytic copper production at 224,900 tons, a slight increase from the previous week [10][11] - Zinc production has increased, with domestic refined zinc output rising to 118,300 tons, while global inventories continue to decrease [11][12]