国投期货化工日报-20250414

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: Not specified [1] - Plastic: Not specified [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: Not specified [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: Not specified [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: Not specified [1] - Soda Ash: Not specified [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of various chemical products are affected by multiple factors such as device maintenance, seasonal demand, trade policies, and cost changes, and their prices are expected to fluctuate within a certain range. Attention should be paid to macro - level impacts, trade market changes, and oil price performance [2][3][6] Summary by Category Methanol - After the inspection, domestic device operating rates increased significantly, and Iranian shipments recovered rapidly. Coastal imports are expected to return by the end of the month. With low inventories and pre - May Day downstream stocking demand, the inland market is likely to be strong. Although supply is expected to recover and there may be short - term shutdowns of olefin plants, low inventories provide support, and macro - level impacts should be focused on [2] Urea - Weekly production increased, and enterprise inventories rose. Agricultural demand decreased due to seasonal factors, and finished product sales slowed down, leading to some reduction in operating loads. Southern rice fertilization demand is expected to peak in late April but is currently affected by drought. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3] Polyolefins - Futures contracts of plastics and polypropylene fluctuated narrowly. Polyethylene supply is sufficient with limited maintenance, and demand from the film and wrapping film sectors is weak. Polypropylene has many planned maintenance devices, but downstream orders are insufficient, especially overseas orders [4] Styrene - The futures contract opened slightly lower and closed higher, and spot prices rose steadily. Maintenance devices increased, and port inventories decreased. The cost of crude oil and pure benzene stabilized in the short term but is expected to be weak overall [5] Polyester - PTA has low processing margins, and its driving force lies in cost. Attention should be paid to trade market changes and oil price performance. Ethylene glycol supply is expected to shrink while demand may decline, and prices will oscillate. Short - fiber exports may increase, but terminal exports are expected to decline, and processing margins have weakened. Bottle - chip supply and demand remain weak, and prices follow raw materials [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC oscillated strongly. Maintenance devices increased, supply decreased, exports were good, and inventory was high. The narrowing profit of chlor - alkali integration provides some support, but the driving force is weak. Caustic soda showed strength. Industry profits are compressed, and enterprises are more inclined to maintain prices. Although operating rates are high, downstream and traders are not active in purchasing, and inventory is high [6] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures prices declined due to high positions and expanded delivery capacity. Inventory continued to decline but at a slower pace. Cost support limits the downside space, and attention should be paid to the 1100 - yuan support level and potential macro - stimulus policies. Soda ash oscillated strongly. Production remained high, and photovoltaic glass demand cooled. The impact of tariffs is limited, and supply pressure is high [7]