豆粕生猪：大豆到港推迟，现货大幅上涨

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 decreased by 0.71% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 3104 yuan/ton. The DCE live pig main contract 2509 rose by 0.87%, closing at 14470 yuan/ton. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract rose by 1.53%, closing at 1044 cents/bushel [2]. - In the soybean meal market, the US soybean futures price rebounded strongly. The Brazilian soybean harvest progress is ahead of previous years. The domestic soybean customs clearance is slow, leading to a regional imbalance in soybean meal supply and a sharp increase in spot prices. In the long - term, the M09 contract is expected to be bullish, but there is a risk of a rapid decline in the basis after the oil mills resume operation [19]. - In the live pig market, the supply side has an increase in the number of pigs for sale, but the concentration is not high. The demand side is generally normal after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The market is in a state of supply - demand stalemate, and the subsequent supply pressure is large, but the supply rhythm is highly uncertain [21]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview - The DCE soybean meal main 2509 contract fell 0.71% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 3104 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton from the previous day. Coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes are 200 - 300 yuan/ton higher. The DCE live pig main 2509 contract rose 0.87%, closing at 14470 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton from the previous day. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live pigs is 14.85 yuan/kg, up 0.21 yuan/kg from the previous day. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract rose 1.53% to 1044 cents/bushel [2]. 2. Main Producing Area Weather - In the United States, dry weather will help it recover from recent floods. In the next 10 - 15 days, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) may turn negative, bringing cold snaps to the northeast and east. The temperature in the Midwest and Southeast will drop by 8 - 12°F below normal. There will be night frosts in the Midwest in the next 5 days. Precipitation in major crop - producing areas will weaken in the next 10 days, but there may be more active rainfall in the South next weekend. The dry conditions in the next 10 days will help the Midwest, South, and Southeast recover from floods, but will not improve the soil moisture shortage in the Great Plains [4]. - The Rosario Exchange said that the weather may be unstable in the next few days with possible precipitation. Starting next week, the weather may enter a more favorable cycle, with drier conditions and less rainfall in the second half of April [5]. 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - From April 5th to 11th, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 98.37 million tons, with an operating rate of 27.65%, 3.95 million tons lower than expected. It is expected that the operating rate will significantly recover from April 12th to 18th, with an estimated crushing volume of 127.02 million tons and an operating rate of 35.71% [6]. - On April 11th, the total soybean meal trading volume was 33.90 million tons, a decrease of 2.03 million tons from the previous day. The spot trading volume was 23.695 million tons, and the basis trading volume was 10.2 million tons. The soybean meal pick - up volume was 16.2 million tons, an increase of 5.42 million tons from the previous day [6]. - On April 14th, the import cost of US soybeans was 3885 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from the previous day; the import cost of Brazilian soybeans was 3711 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton; the import cost of Argentine soybeans was 3780 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton [6]. - On April 14th, the daily slaughter volume of key slaughter enterprises nationwide increased by 0.36% to 111,503 heads. The daily sales volume of key breeding enterprises nationwide increased by 3.79% [6][7]. - Private exporters reported the sale of 121,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations, with 55,000 tons for delivery in the 2024/2025 season and 66,000 tons for delivery in the 2025/2026 season [7]. - As of the week ending April 6th, Canada's rapeseed oil exports increased by 32.92% to 309,700 tons compared to the previous week. From August 1st, 2024, to April 6th, 2025, Canada's rapeseed oil exports were 7.1756 million tons, a 76.24% increase compared to the same period of the previous year [7]. - NOPA member units' estimated soybean crushing volume in March 2025 is 197.602 million bushels. If realized, it will be an 11.1% increase from February and a 0.6% increase from March 2024, setting a record for March [7]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the cumulative incremental social financing scale was 15.18 trillion yuan, 2.37 trillion yuan more than the same period of the previous year. At the end of March, the broad - money (M2) balance was 326.06 trillion yuan, a 7% year - on - year increase, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed [8]. - The preliminary value of the one - year inflation rate expectation of the University of Michigan in the United States in April was 6.7%, higher than the expected 5.1% and the previous value of 5.00% [8]. 4. Data Charts - The report includes charts of the prices and basis of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and live pigs in different regions, as well as the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in China [11][13][16][17]. 5. Analysis and Strategy - Soybean Meal: The US tariff policy has shown signs of loosening. Argentina's heavy rain has raised concerns about soybean production. Brazil's soybean harvest progress is ahead of previous years. The US soybean futures price has rebounded strongly, and the Brazilian soybean premium has declined but has limited downside. The domestic M09 contract is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and be bullish in the long term. The slow customs clearance of soybeans at domestic ports has led to a regional imbalance in soybean meal supply and a sharp increase in spot prices. After the oil mills resume operation, the basis may decline rapidly [19]. - Live Pigs: The supply side has an increase in the number of pigs for sale, but the concentration is not high. The demand side is normal after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The market is in a supply - demand stalemate. The subsequent supply pressure is large, but the supply rhythm is highly uncertain [21].