电话会议纪要（20250413）

Macroeconomic Insights - Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials indicate a need for cautious observation of tariff-induced inflation, diminishing the positive impact of March's low inflation data on financial markets[4] - In March, the US CPI for goods (excluding food and energy) showed a month-on-month decline of -0.1%, with year-on-year growth at 0.0%[4] - Tariff-sensitive goods like household appliances and furniture saw year-on-year price adjustments of -2.5% and -1.8%, respectively[4] Market Reactions - Following the release of economic data, the US Treasury yield curve steepened, with the 2-year yield dropping to around 3.8% and the 10-year yield fluctuating around 4.3%[5] - The stock market indices adjusted downwards, while the US dollar index weakened after a brief recovery[5] Policy Implications - Post-tariff, there is an urgent need for domestic demand expansion policies, with potential new measures expected from the upcoming political bureau meeting[6] - The highest expected tariff rates will see a 90-day delay for reciprocal tariffs on most countries, with significant exemptions for electronic products, indicating a marginal improvement in tariff impacts[6] Historical Context - An analysis of the 2018 bond market during US-China trade tensions shows a general downtrend in bond yields, with the 10-year government bond yield declining by 65 basis points over the year[7] - The bond market's response to tariff announcements was significant, with the 10-year yield dropping to 3.5% following the announcement of tariffs on $500 billion worth of Chinese goods[8] Real Estate Outlook - The real estate market is characterized by strong demand in high-tier cities and weakening demand in lower-tier cities, with potential acceleration in existing policy implementations[16] - A decrease in mortgage rates could stimulate demand for new and second-hand homes, aiding in price stabilization[17] Banking Sector Considerations - The banking sector is expected to benefit from domestic policy adjustments aimed at countering external pressures, with a focus on the internationalization of the RMB in the long term[18] - The current economic environment presents a historical opportunity for RMB internationalization, particularly as US trade policies may undermine the dollar's global status[19]