华宝期货有色金属周报-20250414

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum: The aluminum price fluctuated within a range with increased volatility due to the repeated impact of tariff policies on the market. Short - term industry开工率 is expected to weaken slightly, and the domestic aluminum ingot inventory is likely to maintain a relatively fast destocking rhythm. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes and the support of downstream purchasing after the price correction [10]. - Zinc: The zinc price adjusted downward due to macro - factors. The supply support is weakening, and it is expected that the price will return to the fundamentals and show a weak trend after the release of sentiment. Attention should be paid to the implementation of macro - policies, mine production release, and consumption release [11]. - Tin: The tin price is expected to run strongly overall. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Congo (Kinshasa), Myanmar, and Malaysia, as well as the trade policies of various countries [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 01 有色周度行情回顾 - The closing prices of futures main contracts and spot prices of various non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, nickel) decreased last week. For example, the copper futures main contract CU2505 decreased by 4.60% week - on - week, and the spot price of copper decreased by 5.75% week - on - week [8]. 3.2 02 本周有色行情预判 Aluminum - Logic: Affected by the tariff policy, the aluminum price dropped significantly and then fluctuated. The repeated tariff policy in the US undermined investors' confidence in the US dollar. The consumer confidence in the US deteriorated sharply in April, and the 12 - month inflation expectation soared. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises decreased, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased. - Viewpoint: The aluminum price will fluctuate within a range with increased volatility, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and downstream purchasing. - Later attention: Geopolitical crisis, macro - policy implementation, supply increase, and consumption release [10]. Zinc - Logic: The zinc price adjusted downward due to macro - factors. The output of refined zinc in China increased in March, and the processing fee of zinc ore rebounded, but the increase in output has not been fully reflected. - Viewpoint: The supply support of zinc is weakening, and the price is expected to be weak after the release of sentiment. - Later attention: Macro - policy implementation, mine production release, and consumption release [11]. Tin - Logic: The tin price fluctuated greatly last week. It dropped significantly due to the US tariff policy and the news of mine resumption in Congo (Kinshasa), and then rebounded due to policy adjustments and earthquake news. - Viewpoint: The tin price is expected to run strongly. - Later attention: Resumption of production in Congo (Kinshasa), Myanmar, and Malaysia, and trade policies of various countries [12]. 3.3 03 品种数据（铝、锌、锡） Aluminum - Bauxite: The prices of domestic high - grade and low - grade bauxite in Henan decreased week - on - week, and the import bauxite price index also decreased. The arrival volume at ports increased, while the departure volume decreased [16][17]. - Alumina: The domestic price in Henan decreased, the full cost decreased, and the profit in Shanxi decreased [21]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The total cost decreased, and the regional price difference changed. The operating rates of downstream processing sectors such as aluminum cables, foils, and profiles showed different trends. The inventory in bonded areas increased, the social inventory decreased, and the weekly outbound volume of aluminum ingots in major consumption areas increased [23][25][31]. - Spot and basis: The basis of SMM A00 aluminum and SMM A00 aluminum in Foshan changed in different periods, and the monthly spread of Shanghai aluminum also changed [36][39][40]. Zinc - Zinc concentrate: The price of domestic zinc concentrate decreased slightly, the domestic processing fee increased, and the import processing fee remained unchanged. The enterprise production profit decreased, the import loss decreased, and the inventory of imported zinc concentrate in Lianyungang increased [44][49]. - Refined zinc: The social inventory, bonded area inventory, SHFE inventory, and LME inventory of zinc ingots all decreased [52]. - Galvanized: The output and operating rate increased, the raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory increased [55]. - Basis and monthly spread: The basis of SMM 0 zinc ingot and the monthly spread of Shanghai zinc changed [58][61]. Tin - Refined tin: The combined output of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces decreased, and the combined operating rate also decreased [66]. - Tin ingot: The SHFE tin ingot inventory increased, and the social inventory in different regions of China decreased [69]. - Tin concentrate processing fee: The processing fees in different regions remained unchanged week - on - week but decreased year - on - year [71]. - Tin ore import profit and loss: The import profit and loss level increased [72]. - Spot average price: The average prices of tin concentrate in different regions decreased week - on - week [76].