国金期货烧碱周度报-20250414

Report Overview - Report Type: Weekly Report on Caustic Soda - Writing Time: April 14, 2025 - Review Period: Weekly - Researcher: He Ning - Consulting License Number: Z0001219 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Report Core View - Affected by the overall macro - sentiment, caustic soda futures opened lower last week. After a small rebound, it continued to weaken, hitting a new low for the year. With high inventory and high production, the future trend is expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to downstream procurement progress and macro - policy changes [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Review - Price: After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, affected by the macro - environment, caustic soda futures opened lower. The SH main contract continued to find the bottom, hitting an annual low of 2,267 yuan/ton on Wednesday. As of April 11, 2025, the closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2,361 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton from last week, a decrease of 5.60% [4]. - Supply: Caustic soda weekly production decreased by 0.32 million tons to 83.26 million tons, and flake caustic soda weekly production decreased by 0.88 million tons to 10.61 million tons. The weekly loss of caustic soda was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.83 million tons compared with the previous week. It is expected that the upstream maintenance loss will increase next week [4]. - Inventory: The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 471,300 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 0.65% month - on - month and 5.51% year - on - year. The storage capacity ratio of national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises this week was 27.82%, an increase of 0.34% month - on - month [5]. - Cost: The price of raw salt was lowered again. The price of sea salt in Shandong was 245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The price of well - mine salt in Central China remained at 270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton, and the price of lake salt in the Northwest remained at 240 yuan/ton [5]. - Profit: The average weekly gross profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was 533 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.61% compared with the previous week. The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was continuously lowered this week, while the price of liquid chlorine increased, resulting in a decline in the overall chlor - alkali profit [5]. - Demand: The capacity utilization rate of alumina was 78.88%, a decrease of 4.49% month - on - month. The price of alumina continued to decline this week. As of April 11, the average price of alumina in Shanxi was 2,870 yuan/ton. The operating rate of non - aluminum downstream viscose was 83.61%, a decrease of 4.46% month - on - month; the operating rate of printing and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 64.35%, a decrease of 4.13% month - on - month. In terms of exports, the quotation of liquid caustic soda was stable with minor fluctuations. The export quotation of 50% caustic soda in East China this week was FOB 440 - 450 US dollars/ton [5]. II. Illustrations - The report provides six illustrations including domestic caustic soda operating rate, domestic sample enterprise liquid caustic soda factory inventory, domestic viscose staple fiber industry capacity utilization rate, caustic soda main contract basis, spot liquid caustic soda price, and caustic soda main continuous K - line (daily line) [6][9][13]