Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-04-14 13:40Investment Rating - The report gives a "Positive" outlook for the building materials industry in Q1 2025, indicating a rebound after a prolonged downturn [2][3]. Core Insights - The building materials industry is transitioning from a focus on "volume and cost" to "price and profit," with expectations of recovery in Q1 2025 after nearly four years of decline [3]. - The report highlights that various products in the industry have begun to see price increases, suggesting the end of aggressive price competition and a return to rational pricing strategies [3]. - Specific segments such as cement, fiberglass, and consumer building materials are expected to show significant performance improvements in Q1 2025 [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Cement - The average price of cement in Q1 2025 is projected to be 401 RMB/ton, a year-on-year increase of 37 RMB/ton, while the cost of coal has decreased significantly [3]. - Cement production in January-February 2025 was 170 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 5.7%, but the decline is narrowing compared to 2024 [3]. - Major companies like Conch Cement are expected to see a net profit increase of around 20% in Q1 2025 [4]. Fiberglass - Price increases for various fiberglass products are being implemented, with the average price for non-alkali direct yarn expected to reach 3888 RMB/ton, a year-on-year increase of 711.1 RMB/ton [3]. - China Jushi is projected to see a significant profit recovery, with a net profit forecast of 7.1-7.6 billion RMB in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 320-350% [3]. Consumer Building Materials - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, which may stabilize demand for consumer building materials [3]. - The report anticipates improvements in revenue and profit for companies in this segment in Q1 2025 [3]. Glass - Photovoltaic glass prices have increased due to demand, while flat glass prices remain under pressure [3]. - The average price for photovoltaic glass has risen from 12 RMB/sqm to 14.25 RMB/sqm in early April 2025 [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and China Jushi for potential investment opportunities in Q1 2025 [3]. - Other recommended companies include North New Building Materials, Rabbit Baby, and Weixing New Materials in the consumer building materials sector [3].