华宝期货黑色产业链周报-20250414

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Overall Market Last week, the prices of the black series in the market fluctuated significantly due to macro - factors, especially the frequent changes in US tariff policies. The market sentiment was affected, and the prices of various commodities showed different trends. In the short term, there may be some rebounds, but overall, the market is under pressure, and the focus of trading will gradually shift to the industrial fundamentals [9][10]. 2.2 Specific Varieties - Finished Products: Short - term rebound, overall under pressure. The main trading logic is at the macro level, and the prices are affected by trade policies. Pay attention to trade policies and downstream demand [9]. - Iron Ore: The short - term impact of "reciprocal tariffs" is weakening, and the supply - demand relationship tends to be loose. It is recommended to operate within the range of 690 - 720 yuan/ton for the 2509 contract. Focus on terminal demand, mainstream mine shipments, and the impact of reciprocal tariffs [10]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The market is still affected by tariff policies, and the overall supply - demand situation is relatively loose. It is expected to be in a weak and volatile state. Pay attention to the rhythm changes of mines and steel mills and the clearance of imported coal [11]. - Ferroalloys: The prices are expected to follow the trend of the black market. The demand has some resilience, but the supply is shrinking. Pay attention to tariff policies, domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, and steel mill profits [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Market Review - Futures and Spot Prices: From April 3 to April 11, 2025, most varieties' futures and spot prices declined. For example, the futures price of rebar RB2510 dropped from 3231 to 3131, a decrease of 100 yuan or 3.10%, and the spot price of HRB400E: Φ20 in Shanghai dropped from 3230 to 3160, a decrease of 70 yuan or 2.17%. However, the spot price of coking coal in Jiexiu increased by 20 yuan or 1.79% [7]. 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast 3.2.1 Finished Products - Logic: The prices were affected by macro - factors last week. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate increased, and the profitability of steel mills decreased. The inventory of rebar continued to decline, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased significantly. The main trading logic is at the macro level, and the frequent changes in US tariff policies lead to price fluctuations [9]. - View: Short - term rebound, overall under pressure [9]. 3.2.2 Iron Ore - Logic: After the panic - selling caused by macro - negatives last week, there was a short - term rebound. The supply may decline seasonally, the demand is in the recovery stage but has limited upside, and the inventory is expected to rise in April, which will put pressure on prices [10]. - View: The short - term impact of reciprocal tariffs is weakening. The supply - demand relationship tends to be loose. It is recommended to operate within the range of 690 - 720 yuan/ton for the 2509 contract [10]. 3.2.3 Coking Coal and Coke - Logic: Affected by tariff policies, the futures prices of coking coal and coke reached new lows in more than eight years. The spot market showed signs of stabilization, and some coking enterprises planned to increase coke prices. The demand for coke is good, but the supply is also increasing [11]. - View: The market is still affected by tariff policies, and the overall supply - demand situation is relatively loose. It is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [11]. 3.2.4 Ferroalloys - Logic: Affected by the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions, the market sentiment was bearish. The supply of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron decreased, the demand had some resilience but was difficult to increase significantly, the inventory pressure was relieved to some extent, and the cost changed little [12]. - View: The prices are expected to follow the trend of the black market. Pay attention to tariff policies, domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, and steel mill profits [12]. 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Finished Products - Rebar: Last week, the output was 232.37 million tons, the apparent demand was 252.68 million tons, the total inventory was 777.76 million tons, and the inventory decreased by 20.31 million tons. The long - process output was 201.91 million tons, and the short - process output was 30.46 million tons [14][17][22]. - Hot - Rolled Coils: Last week, the output was 313.30 million tons, the apparent demand was 315.33 million tons, the total inventory was 384.31 million tons, and the inventory decreased by 2.03 million tons [25][30]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Inventory: The port inventory of imported ore was 14341.02 million tons, a decrease of 127.39 million tons compared with the previous week. The inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 9077.13 million tons, a decrease of 94.59 million tons compared with the previous week [42][50]. - Shipment: The global total shipment was 2907.7 million tons, a decrease of 14.2 million tons compared with the previous week. The shipment from Australia to China was 1476.3 million tons, an increase of 23.2 million tons compared with the previous week [66][76]. 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - Inventory: The total inventory of coke was 1008.39 million tons, an increase of 0.86 million tons compared with the previous week. The total inventory of coking coal was 2622.68 million tons, an increase of 22.42 million tons compared with the previous week [90][99]. - Profit and Basis: The profit of coke in different contracts increased compared with the previous week, and the basis of coke and coking coal also changed [111][114][117]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - Price and Inventory: The spot price of manganese ore in Tianjin Port decreased, the spot price of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron decreased. The port inventory of manganese ore decreased, and the inventory of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron enterprises increased [123][127][137]. - Output and Demand: The output of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron decreased, and the demand for both increased [129][131][133].