宏观与大类资产周报：国内CPI增速平稳，美国通胀预期大幅上升-20250414

Macro Economic Overview - In March, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, a reduction of 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous value, while the core CPI increased by 0.5%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The PPI showed weakness due to oil prices and seasonal factors, with March new RMB loans reaching 3.64 trillion yuan, exceeding the market expectation of 2.9 trillion yuan by 550 billion yuan[3] - In the U.S., the CPI and core CPI year-on-year growth rates fell to 2.4% and 2.8%, respectively, influenced by declining energy prices and economic slowdown[3] Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a significant decline on Monday, followed by a stabilization and rebound, with average daily trading volume increasing to 1.57 trillion yuan, a substantial rise from the previous week[1] - The two-margin balance decreased to 1.81 trillion yuan, while the proportion of financing purchases slightly increased[1] - Major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and ChiNext Index fell by 3.1%, 2.9%, and 6.7%, respectively, indicating a broad market adjustment[15] Sector Analysis - Defensive sectors like defense, agriculture, and consumer goods saw gains of 3.2%, 1.2%, and 0.9%, respectively, while sectors heavily impacted by tariffs, such as electric equipment and machinery, faced declines of 7.8% and 7.5%[20] - The average wholesale price of pork dropped to 20.74 yuan/kg, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.01%, while vegetable prices increased to 4.89 yuan/kg, with a year-on-year growth rate of -1.66%[4] Investment Strategy - Short-term investment strategies should focus on domestic consumption sectors, dividend stocks, and self-sufficient themes, with policies expected to support domestic demand throughout the year[2] - Long-term attention should be given to technology, manufacturing, consumption, and pharmaceutical industries for potential growth opportunities[2] Risks and Uncertainties - There are uncertainties regarding the implementation and effectiveness of policies, potential impacts on real estate investment, and significant global economic risks, particularly from rising U.S. inflation expectations[6]