野村-解读1980年代日美贸易摩擦及美国关税对制造业波及路径

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The 1980s US-Japan trade friction had profound impacts on Japan's economy and industries, leading to a shift in manufacturing strategies, particularly in the automotive sector [3] - The US tariff policies significantly affect Asian manufacturing, especially Japan's automotive industry, which relies heavily on exports to the US [5][6] - Japanese automakers are adopting various strategies to cope with US tariffs, including price increases and relocating production bases, although these strategies come with challenges [6][7] - Non-tariff barriers from the US exacerbate trade tensions, impacting market access for foreign products [7] - The semiconductor industry has transitioned from a peak to a decline due to trade tensions and competitive pressures [4][14] Summary by Sections Impact of US Tariffs on Japanese Manufacturing - The US tariffs have led to increased costs for Japanese manufacturers, particularly in the automotive sector, where exports constitute over 35% of their business [5] - Japanese automakers like Toyota are less affected due to higher local production, while others like Nissan face greater challenges due to their export reliance [6] Strategies of Japanese Automakers - Japanese car manufacturers are considering price hikes or shifting production bases to mitigate tariff impacts, but both options present significant challenges [6][8] - Honda's analysis indicates that a 25% tariff on 550,000 vehicles could reduce profits by over 500 billion yen [6] Non-Tariff Barriers and Trade Friction - Non-tariff barriers, such as safety standards and market access discrepancies, further complicate trade relations and increase operational costs for Japanese firms [7] - The historical context of US-Japan trade friction includes various sectors, with the automotive and semiconductor industries being particularly affected [9][10] Semiconductor Industry Dynamics - The semiconductor sector has faced severe challenges due to trade tensions, with the US implementing measures to limit Japanese market access and promote local production [13][14] - The decline of Japan's semiconductor industry is attributed to strategic missteps and increased competition from US firms [14] Future Implications of Tariffs - The anticipated increase in US tariffs in 2025 is expected to significantly impact the technology sector, particularly electronics, which are heavily reliant on Asian manufacturing [16] - Companies like Apple are exploring various strategies to manage tariff pressures, including price adjustments and supply chain restructuring [17] Domestic Alternatives and Opportunities - The report identifies potential opportunities in domestic substitution for products previously sourced from the US, particularly in semiconductor manufacturing [20][23] - Companies like Texas Instruments are positioned to navigate tariff challenges due to their high domestic production rates [21]