食饮出海征途：从模式探索到价值突围 ——聚焦"供应链出海"路径的深度解析 必选消费（强于大市） 周悦琅 彭琦茹 研究助理 yuelang.zhou@nomuraoi-sec.com SAC执证编号： qiru.peng@nomuraoi-sec.com S1720524030001 2026/01/29 STRICTLY PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL © Nomura 证券研究报告 请务必阅读报告正文后各项声明 ▍从产品输出到价值输出的四阶段出海模型 第一阶段：产品试探 ▍出海价值维度分析：企业出海的是什么？ ▍增长驱动力拆解与标的推荐 目录 第二阶段：本地化深耕 第三阶段：品牌并购与整合 第四阶段：构建全球价值网络 类型1：效率优势出海 类型2：产品与品类创新出海 类型3：文化赋能与品牌价值出海 类型4：供应链专业化与生态协同出海 安琪酵母：酵母龙头的全球扩张 仙乐健康：营养健康CDMO的全球化征途 投资建议与标的推荐 核心摘要 中国食品饮料行业正经历从"增量竞争"向"存量博弈"的转变。国内市场渗透率见顶、同质化竞争加剧以及渠道成本高企， 共同构成了企业增长的核心瓶颈。在此背景下，出海已 ...

分析师 1: 好的。尊敬各位投资人，大家下午好，非常感谢大家百忙之中抽出时间聆听我们电话会议 那今天，我们是主要就出海这个主题做一些深度的讨论。我们其实列举了非常多行业，总 结出一些整体上的一些出海的规律。我们觉得总体上，大概分成四个阶段。第一个是产品 第二个是本地化的扩张。第三，在本地化之后进行进一步的品牌并购与整合，最终是构建 一个全球的价值战略。那以此来看，我们觉得中国企业的出海其实是有非常多的一些创新 和效率上的领先优势的。 那从这几个方面来讲，我们觉得有以下几类这个公司，其实比较适合去出海的。比如说以 安琪酵母为主要内，为主要内容的这种产品相对比较有竞争力的。或者说是像新乐健康这 种，就是整体的制造能力，或者说它的发展的一个针对 B 端的水平是比较高的，一种加工 能力比较高。也包括，比如说像泡泡玛特的就是以这种 IP 文化出海的形式来打全国化的一 个路径的。好，那首先我们来看，首先我们看到有很多的食品要出海，现在市场其实分歧 是比较大的。 中国的内需相对来说很多的总量其实已经到顶了，那这个出海到底是不得已而为之？还是 说是一个成长当中的必然路径？那我们去看，就是整体来看，其实现在很多的中国的公司 海 ...

野村：日本"特拉斯冲击"再升温：选举减税的政策博弈 与日本财政担忧 20260123 摘要 日本消费税减税政策的推行主要出于选举考量，高市希望通过与在野党 达成共识来巩固支持率，但此举引发市场对其财政责任感的质疑，加剧 了投资者的不安情绪。 短期内，消费税减税可能促进经济增长，但长期来看，刺激作用将减弱， 且缺乏明确的资金弥补方案导致投资者信心不足，推动日本长债利率迅 速上升，引发股债汇三杀。 当前日本宏观经济环境已由通缩转为通胀，日元由升值转为贬值。在此 背景下，继续依赖扩张性财政政策或压制日本央行货币中性化进程将对 经济产生负面影响。 日本当前面临股债汇三杀风险，类似于 2022 年英国特拉斯冲击。若高 市进一步推行消费税减税或不负责任的财政政策，将导致日本央行加息 变成坏加息，对银行股产生负面影响。 市场预期日本官方会采取措施平稳市场情绪，如日本央行可能放缓缩减 购债节奏或进行灵活购债，财务省可能通过控制汇率贬值来抑制通胀预 期，从而间接控制日债利率过度上升。 Q&A 日本近期的长债利率上升以及股债汇三杀现象的主要原因是什么？ 近期日本长债利率上升以及股债汇三杀现象的主要原因是由于高市进行了众议 院解散 ...

日本"特拉斯冲击"再升温 ——选举减税的政策博弈与日本财政担忧 主题研究团队 侯苏寒 zongchao.qi@nomuraoi-sec.com SAC执证编号：S1720522050003 suhan.hou@nomuraoi-sec.com SAC执证编号：S1720520020001 2026年1月 请务必阅读报告正文后各项声明 祁宗超 目录 ◼ 一、消费税减税从担忧到现实 （日本遭"三重抛售"、众议院选举的政策博弈） （日银干预与历史的异同、财务省干预的治标与治本） ◼ 四、众议院选举及政策走向对市场的可能影响 （不同选情下的资本市场影响） 请务必阅读报告正文后各项声明 ◼ 二、日债利率创新高与"特拉斯冲击"担忧 （财政纪律受质疑、减税利弊、对货币政策的影响） ◼ 三、日本政策工具箱预期及其约束 消费税减税从担忧到现实 ， ◼ 日本超长期国债利率急剧上升，股市和日元贬值形成三 重下跌的局面。高市政府在解散众议院并重新选举后决 定推动消费税减税，进一步加剧了国债市场的不稳定， 引发市场对日本财政及经济的担忧。 ◼ 日债利率曲线陡峭化的情形有点类似去年4月，当时"对 等关税"外部冲击与对降低消费税的担忧同样 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the power equipment and renewable energy sector, highlighting significant growth opportunities driven by increasing electricity demand and technological advancements [2]. Core Insights - The global electricity demand is entering a super cycle, with substantial growth expected in the U.S. driven by AI data center construction and in Europe due to a resurgence in electricity demand [3][4][6]. - The Middle East is projected to see gas and solar power become the main contributors to future electricity increments [8]. - China is expected to maintain robust investment in its power grid, supporting its manufacturing base [11]. - The U.S. energy storage market is anticipated to experience unprecedented growth by 2026, driven by increasing demand from data centers and other sectors [13][25]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to enter an upward price cycle due to supply constraints and increasing demand from electric vehicles and energy storage systems [39][48]. Summary by Sections Electricity Demand - U.S. electricity demand is forecasted to grow significantly, with peak demand predictions for 2030 being continuously revised upwards [5]. - European electricity demand growth is expected to accelerate to 2.4% from previous lower rates, with data centers contributing a compound annual growth rate of 20% [7]. - In the Middle East, the electricity generation mix is shifting towards gas and solar, with ambitious renewable energy targets set for 2030 [9]. Energy Storage - The U.S. energy storage market is projected to see a supply-demand imbalance in 2026-2027, with new installations expected to exceed 120 GWh [26]. - Companies are raising their forecasts for global and North American energy storage demand, predicting 510 GWh and 150 GWh respectively by 2028 [27]. - Tesla's energy storage business is showing strong growth, with significant increases in shipments and revenue [31]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to face upward price pressure due to supply shortages and increasing demand from the electric vehicle sector [39][48]. - Global lithium production is projected to grow, but demand is expected to outpace supply by 2026, leading to potential price increases [48]. Power Equipment - The U.S. transformer market is experiencing a shortage, with a significant portion of equipment needing replacement in the coming years [51]. - There is a positive outlook for Chinese power equipment exports to Europe and the Middle East, driven by increasing capital expenditures in these regions [55][56]. - Companies like Eaton and Hitachi are reporting strong order growth in their electrical businesses, indicating robust demand in the power equipment sector [66][69].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a structural investment focus, emphasizing opportunities in high-value manufacturing, aesthetic exports, and passive fund inflows, particularly in the context of improving liquidity in the market [1][6][24]. Core Insights - The A-share market is expected to continue its structural differentiation into 2026, driven by industry prosperity, corporate profitability, and internal and external demand dynamics [1][3][9]. - The profitability forecast for the CSI 300 index has been raised to 7.2% for 2026 and 8.4% for 2027, indicating that market growth will increasingly rely on fundamental factors rather than valuation expansion [4][22]. - The TMT sector has maintained high trading activity, becoming a significant market driver, with passive funds contributing to increased liquidity [8][26]. Summary by Sections Market Performance and Trends - The A-share market is projected to be driven by breakthroughs in AI technology and geopolitical developments, with a focus on a "barbell strategy" that balances growth and dividend assets [2][3]. - Structural differentiation is anticipated to manifest in three areas: industry prosperity, corporate profitability, and internal/external demand dynamics [3][9]. Profitability Forecast - The profitability of the CSI 300 index has been adjusted upward, with forecasts of 7.2% and 8.4% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, indicating a reliance on fundamental growth rather than valuation expansion [4][22]. Capital Flow Characteristics - Key capital flow characteristics include the export of high-value manufacturing goods, aesthetic exports, and the passive nature of incremental capital, particularly following the implementation of the OCI policy [6][24]. - The total scale of OCI accounts for major insurance companies increased by nearly 41 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 compared to the end of 2024, highlighting the growing appeal of dividend-centric state-owned enterprises [6]. Sectoral Performance - The technology sector's net profit share has been increasing, while the financial and real estate sectors have seen declines in revenue and profit shares [10][11][12]. - Companies with over 20% of revenue from overseas have shown significant growth in both revenue and net profit, reflecting the impact of external demand on A-share performance [14][15]. Future Market Expectations - The market is expected to continue exhibiting fundamental differentiation, influenced by technological innovation, corporate leadership disparities, and enhanced external demand [16][20]. - The baseline scenario includes a neutral to accommodative stance from the Federal Reserve and ongoing structural adjustments in domestic policy [17]. Recommended Investment Directions - Three key areas for investment are identified: high-end manufacturing, globalization of Chinese consumer products, and the passive inflow of incremental capital [24][25]. - High-end manufacturing is expected to leverage global R&D and capital advantages, while Chinese consumer products are anticipated to gain traction in overseas markets through effective marketing strategies [25].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the energy sector, particularly in the context of increasing electricity demand and the transition to renewable energy sources [1][3][20]. Core Insights - The global electricity demand is entering a super cycle driven by AI, industrialization, and electrification, with significant growth expected in the U.S., Europe, and the Middle East [3][4][5]. - The U.S. electricity consumption is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.7%-4% from 2025 to 2030, primarily due to the return of manufacturing and the expansion of data centers [1][3]. - In Europe, electricity demand is expected to increase by 2.4% over the next five years, driven by industrialization and data center development [5]. - The Middle East has seen a threefold increase in electricity demand over the past 20 years, with further growth anticipated due to urbanization and industrial investments [6][7]. - China is one of the fastest-growing countries in terms of electricity demand, with a projected consumption of approximately 910 billion kWh in 2024, driven by industrial and export activities [8][9]. Summary by Sections U.S. Electricity Demand - U.S. peak load is expected to increase by 166 GW from 2026 to 2030, with data centers contributing 90 GW [4]. - Challenges in data center capacity growth include increased access difficulties and local opposition [11]. - Texas faces a potential electricity price increase due to rapid demand growth and weak grid support [13][14]. European Electricity Demand - European electricity demand is lagging behind the U.S. by 2-3 years, with a projected increase driven by industrialization and data centers [5]. - By 2030, data centers are expected to contribute 35 GW to electricity demand in Europe [5]. Middle East Electricity Demand - The Middle East's electricity demand is driven by urbanization and cooling needs, with a significant reliance on natural gas [6][7]. - Future growth in the region is expected to be fueled by infrastructure development and industrialization [7]. China Electricity Demand - China's electricity demand is expected to maintain steady growth, with industrial consumption accounting for 64% of total usage [8][9]. - The focus on enhancing the energy structure and grid investment is anticipated to support future demand [9]. Energy Storage Market - The U.S. energy storage market is experiencing strong demand, with optimistic growth projections for major companies like Tesla [19][20]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to see a price increase due to tight supply and strong demand from the energy storage sector [21]. Investment Opportunities - Companies such as Canadian Solar (CSIQ) and others in the energy sector are viewed as having strong growth potential despite high valuations [29].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on individual stocks rather than the overall industry, indicating potential for high individual stock appreciation despite overall industry pressure [2][3]. Core Insights - Consumer confidence is gradually recovering, with strong growth in consumer-close channels such as convenience stores and membership stores, which saw a year-on-year increase of 4.9% [1][9]. - The food and beverage sector is currently undervalued, with cost stability expected to support corporate profitability as raw material costs are anticipated to remain flat or decrease next year [1][2]. - The alcoholic beverage segment is under pressure, particularly the baijiu industry, which is facing clearing and restrictions, while beer remains stable and the competition in yellow wine is changing significantly [1][6]. Summary by Sections B2B and B2C Business - B2B business in new retail channels and restaurant recovery is relatively weak, but significant changes are observed in C-end offline channels [4]. - C-end consumer confidence is gradually recovering, with stronger growth dynamics in consumer-close channels [4]. Industry Performance - The demand for alcoholic beverages is under pressure, with baijiu production declining and prices in a downward trend, although recent company price control has led to a rebound [5][6]. - The snack sector is experiencing rapid growth, while baking and cooked food operations are under pressure. Brands like Wancheng and Weilong are responsive to channel changes, leading to sustained growth [5][6]. Consumer Confidence and Economic Impact - The consumer confidence index has steadily improved, rising from 87.5 to 89.4 from January to October 2025, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [12]. - Despite overall industry pressures, there are many growth opportunities in specific segments such as pre-processed foods and snacks, with products like electrolyte water and sugar-free tea continuing to grow rapidly [13]. Valuation and Investment Recommendations - The valuation of food and beverage companies is currently at historical lows, with many companies offering attractive dividend yields, such as Chongqing Beer exceeding 3% [15][16]. - The report recommends focusing on leading brands in specific segments, including top brands like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring, as well as snack brands like Wancheng Group and Yanjinpuzi, and pre-processed food companies like Sanquan Foods and Anjui Foods [16].

Investment Rating - The report rates the dairy industry as "Overweight" compared to the market, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Yili Co., Ltd. is expected to benefit from domestic substitution in the dairy industry and opportunities for product diversification [2]. - The current dairy price downcycle has lasted for nearly three years, driven by rigid supply and weak demand, but several positive signals suggest an impending turning point [18][32]. - The B-end market for dairy products is growing rapidly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.9% from 2021 to 2024, significantly outpacing the C-end market, which is experiencing a decline [38]. Summary by Sections Dairy Price Cycle - The current downcycle in raw milk prices has persisted for 49 months, with a decline of 30.6% since September 2021 [7][9]. - The average milk yield per cow has been on an upward trend since 2018, with the scale of dairy farming expected to reach 78% by 2024 [8]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side remains rigid due to high barriers for large-scale farms to exit, while demand has been weak, leading to a prolonged price downcycle [9][18]. - Dairy companies are reducing purchases of raw milk to manage inventory, further pressuring raw milk prices [19]. B-end Market Opportunities - The B-end market for dairy products is characterized by a low current share but high growth potential, particularly in fresh milk, which is expected to dominate B-end consumption [34][38]. - Domestic dairy companies are increasingly focusing on the B-end market through partnerships and product innovations to capture market share from imported brands [39][40]. C-end Market Diversification - The liquid milk segment is stabilizing, with flavored milk beverages gaining market share, while low-temperature fresh milk is experiencing volume growth despite price pressures [51][52]. - The cheese market is facing challenges, with a projected decline in retail volume and per capita consumption from 2022 to 2024, but there is a push towards original cheese production to meet health trends [56][63]. Financial Performance and Competitive Position - Yili Co., Ltd. has maintained a strong competitive position with a higher gross margin compared to its peers, benefiting from a diversified product portfolio and effective distribution strategies [64][71]. - The company's sales expense ratio has decreased significantly, enhancing its profitability relative to competitors [71].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Japanese economy, indicating a shift in focus from anti-inflation measures to boosting potential growth rates [14]. Core Insights - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has raised its policy interest rate from approximately 0.5% to 0.75%, aligning with market expectations and indicating a normalization of monetary policy [10][11]. - The report highlights that the core CPI in Japan is nearing the target of stable 2% inflation, with expectations that it may drop below this level in early 2026 [16][19]. - The fiscal policy under Prime Minister Kishi is described as "active but responsible," aiming to balance economic stimulation with fiscal sustainability [104][113]. Summary by Sections 1. Background and Outlook of BOJ's Monetary Policy - The BOJ's decision to raise interest rates is driven by nearing inflation targets and pressures from yen depreciation [6][17]. - The central bank's stance remains cautious, with no new estimates provided for the neutral interest rate, which is crucial for future rate hikes [10][25]. - The report notes that the BOJ's future rate adjustments will depend on comprehensive assessments of actual rates and loan conditions [10][11]. 2. Yen Carry Trade: Scale Evolution, Trends, and Drivers - The report discusses the evolution of yen carry trades, noting that the scale of foreign banks' yen funding has fluctuated, peaking at 14.4 trillion yen in May before declining [38]. - The attractiveness of yen carry trades has increased due to a decrease in implied volatility of the USD/JPY exchange rate [43]. 3. Fiscal Sustainability in Japan: Impact of Rising Interest Rates on Government Debt - Japan's government debt has been on the rise since the 1990s, with interest payments increasing significantly due to the BOJ's rate hikes [94][101]. - The report expresses concerns about the sustainability of Kishi's expansionary fiscal policies amid rising interest rates [90][93]. - The fiscal stimulus plan, amounting to 21.3 trillion yen, is expected to boost real GDP by approximately 0.3% [112][113].