长江期货棉纺策略日报-20250415

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton is under pressure to decline. Domestic cotton supply and demand are basically sufficient but may be slightly tight. The sales pressure of Xinjiang ginning mills has been released by about 60%, and 40% remains unpriced. Resources are concentrated in a few major traders. The domestic cotton industry has over - capacity, limiting cotton price increases. The tariff policy adjustment and the Sino - US trade war have a negative impact on cotton prices in the short - to - medium term. In the second half of the year, potential cotton production increases in Xinjiang and Brazil are also bearish factors [1]. - PTA is under pressure to decline. The cost - end crude oil provides poor support, production is decreasing, and demand growth is limited due to factors such as polyester production cuts and poor export orders, so the price may continue to fall [4]. - Ethylene glycol is in a range - bound consolidation. The low international crude oil price provides poor cost support, but the expected reduction in imports and the current good polyester start - up rate support the price, and it is expected to oscillate between 4250 - 4350 [4]. - Short - fiber is in a range - bound and weakening trend. Weak raw material prices and expected decline in terminal textile demand make it difficult for the short - fiber market to have positive changes in the short term [5]. - Sugar is in a range - bound adjustment. The international sugar market has short - term supply tightness, and the domestic sugar market is affected by multiple factors such as import data, sales progress, and macro - environment changes. It is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern, and the price may be boosted in the future with increased demand [6]. - Apples are in a range - bound and strengthening trend. The overall inventory of apples is decreasing, the sales are good, and the price is expected to strengthen, but macro - risks need to be monitored [7]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog Macro Key Information - In the first quarter of 2025, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports reached 10.3 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. Exports were 6.13 trillion yuan, up 6.9%, and imports were 4.17 trillion yuan, down 6% year - on - year. The month - on - month import and export growth rate showed a rising trend [8]. Fundamental Information Tracking of Each Variety PTA - As of April 7, the spot price of PTA in the East China market declined. The cost and demand expectations are weak due to the tariff policy. The domestic PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate reached 80.48% last week, showing an upward trend [10][12]. Cotton - On April 14, the China Cotton Price Index was 14293 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the 2024/25 season, India's cotton production decreased, imports increased, and exports decreased. The end - of - period inventory decreased year - on - year [11]. Ethylene Glycol - China's total ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 66.01%, with an increase of 0.31% month - on - month. The weekly output was 39.69 million tons, showing an upward trend [13]. Short - fiber - As of April 3, the domestic short - fiber weekly output was 15.81 million tons, a decrease of 0.19 million tons month - on - month. The cost was in a weak oscillation, and the profit was slightly repaired [13]. Sugar - It is expected that in the second half of March, the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil will decrease year - on - year. Ukraine's sugar imports and exports from January to March 2025 decreased compared with the same period in 2024. The Meng'a Sugar Factory completed its 2024/25 crushing season [13]. Apples - As of April 9, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 398.63 million tons, a decrease of 38.90 million tons from the previous week. The inventory in Shandong and Shaanxi is at a low level in recent years [14]. Important Data Tracking of Each Variety - No specific data content provided, only figure descriptions such as cotton price trends, PTA futures price trends, etc.