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中辉期货日刊-20250415
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-04-15 03:06
  1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil is expected to fluctuate. The tariff war has eased, leading to an oil price rebound, but OPEC has lowered the 2025 crude oil demand growth rate, and OPEC+ plans to increase production more than expected [1]. - LPG is expected to rebound. It follows the oil price rebound, with the tariff risk continuing to be released, strong spot prices, and a high basis. The supply - demand situation has both long and short factors [1]. - L is expected to fluctuate. With an increase in warehouse receipts, an expected reduction in imports, and a planned startup of Exxon at the end of the month, it will stabilize in the short - term following the cost side. In the long - term, high device commissioning pressure and a potential decline in crude oil prices suggest a bearish outlook on rebounds [1]. - PP is expected to fluctuate. Spot prices have narrow fluctuations. Anti - sanctions increase the expected supply contraction of PDH devices, while the enthusiasm for oil - based production has increased. In the long - term, high device commissioning pressure and a potential decline in crude oil prices suggest a bearish outlook on rebounds [1]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate. With the price of calcium carbide decreasing and spring maintenance starting, the low - valuation bottom has support. Short - term observation is recommended, and buying on dips is advisable [1]. - PX is expected to be weak. Device maintenance is carried out as planned, and the improvement in supply - demand is limited. Affected by tariffs and OPEC+ production increase policies, the expected decline in crude oil prices and high inventory levels lead to a weakening trend [1]. - PTA is expected to be weak. Device maintenance eases supply - side pressure, but downstream polyester demand is expected to weaken, and inventory levels are high. The expected decline in crude oil prices also affects the market [1]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate. Device maintenance and low imports ease supply - side pressure, but demand is expected to weaken, and cost support is weak [1]. - Bottle chips are expected to be weak. Device capacity utilization has increased, leading to increased supply pressure. Although demand is expected to improve, cost support is weak, and inventory has rebounded [1]. - Glass is expected to consolidate. The expansion of delivery warehouses and an increase in registered warehouse receipts, along with weak spot price increases and cost support, lead to a 5 - 9 reverse spread [1]. - Soda ash is under pressure. Supply is gradually recovering, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory levels are relatively high [1]. - Methanol is bearish. High domestic and overseas device operating rates lead to increased supply, while demand shows signs of weakening, and cost support is weak [1]. - Urea is bearish. Supply pressure remains high, downstream demand is expected to weaken, and although fertilizer exports are relatively good, inventory levels are slightly high [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: Overnight international oil prices were consolidating at a low level. WTI decreased by 0.73%, Brent increased by 0.19%, and SC increased by 0.97% [2]. - Basic Logic: The core driver is the easing of the tariff war. In terms of supply, OPEC+ will adjust production by 411,000 barrels per day in May 2025, and the March production increased by 30,000 barrels per day. In terms of demand, OPEC and EIA have both lowered the 2025 global oil demand growth forecast. In terms of inventory, as of April 4, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 2.6 million barrels [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the long - term, due to the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+ being in an expansion cycle, there is long - term oversupply, and the oil price center will shift down. In the short - term, it is recommended to sell put options. SC should be monitored in the range of [465 - 480] [4]. LPG - Market Review: On April 14, the PG main contract closed at 4,405 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% compared to the previous period. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged [6]. - Basic Logic: The core driver is the strong fundamental situation of LPG itself. After the tariff on US propane, the import cost has increased, and the spot market is strong. In terms of device dynamics, some devices have adjusted their production. In terms of cost - profit, PDH device profit has decreased, while alkylation device profit has increased. Supply has increased slightly, demand has shown mixed trends, and port inventory has decreased [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: LPG is undervalued, and it is recommended to buy call options or sell put options. PG should be monitored in the range of [4450 - 4550] [8]. L - Market Review: The 5 - 9 spread increased by 16 yuan/ton day - on - day [10]. - Basic Logic: In terms of supply, new production capacity has been put into operation this year, and some devices have started. Some import windows are closed. In terms of demand, the agricultural film season is coming to an end. In the short - term, it will stabilize following the cost side, and in the long - term, high device commissioning pressure and a potential decline in crude oil prices suggest a bearish outlook on rebounds [11]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is advisable to sell on rallies. L should be monitored in the range of [7150 - 7300] [11]. PP - Market Review: The L - PP05 spread increased by 22 yuan/ton day - on - day, and the PP - 3MA05 spread increased by 54 yuan/ton [13]. - Basic Logic: In terms of supply, new production capacity has been put into operation, and the supply is still abundant in the short - term. Anti - sanctions increase the expected supply contraction of PDH devices, while the enthusiasm for oil - based production has increased. In the long - term, high device commissioning pressure and a potential decline in crude oil prices suggest a bearish outlook on rebounds [14]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term observation is recommended, and selling on rallies is advisable in the medium - term. PP should be monitored in the range of [7150 - 7300] [14]. PVC - Market Review: The 5 - 9 spread increased by 8 yuan/ton [16]. - Basic Logic: In terms of supply, new production capacity has been added, and the capacity utilization rate is 79%. In terms of demand, the decline in real estate completion area has narrowed, and downstream operating rates have seasonally recovered. Exports have increased significantly. With the decrease in calcium carbide price and the start of spring maintenance, the low - valuation bottom has support [17]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term observation is recommended, and buying on dips is advisable. V should be monitored in the range of [4800 - 5000] [17]. PX - Market Review: On April 11, the spot price of PX in East China was 6,865 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the PX05 contract closed at 6,054 yuan/ton (- 50). The East China basis was 811 (+ 50) yuan/ton [18]. - Basic Logic: PX device maintenance is carried out as planned, which eases supply - side pressure. However, downstream PTA device maintenance also affects demand. The expected decline in crude oil prices and high inventory levels lead to a weakening trend [19]. - Strategy Recommendation: PX should be monitored in the range of [5910, 6050] [20]. PTA - Market Review: On April 11, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,310 (+ 80) yuan/ton, and the TA05 contract closed at 4,358 (+ 8) yuan/ton. The TA5 - 9 spread was - 46 (- 10) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was - 48 (+ 72) yuan/ton [21]. - Basic Logic: PTA device maintenance eases supply - side pressure, but downstream polyester demand is expected to weaken, and inventory levels are high. The expected decline in crude oil prices also affects the market [22]. - Strategy Recommendation: TA should be monitored in the range of [4300, 4400] [23]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: On April 11, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,315 (- 15) yuan/ton, and the EG05 contract closed at 4,279 (+ 8) yuan/ton. The EG5 - 9 spread was - 54 (+ 5) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 36 (- 23) yuan/ton [24]. - Basic Logic: Device maintenance and low imports ease supply - side pressure, but demand is expected to weaken, and cost support is weak [24]. - Strategy Recommendation: EG should be monitored in the range of [4150, 4280] [24]. Bottle Chips - Market Review: On April 11, the spot price of water - grade pet bottle chips in East China was 5,600 (+ 180) yuan/ton, and the PR main contract closed at 5,596 (+ 248) yuan/ton. The East China basis was - 28 (- 70) yuan/ton [25]. - Basic Logic: Device capacity utilization has increased, leading to increased supply pressure. Although demand is expected to improve, cost support is weak, and inventory has rebounded [26]. - Strategy Recommendation: PR should be monitored in the range of [5500, 5640] [26]. Glass - Market Review: The spot market has partially increased prices, the futures market has had larger fluctuations, the main contract basis has expanded, and warehouse receipts have increased [28]. - Basic Logic: At the macro level, the impact of tariffs on market sentiment has eased, and there are expectations for incremental policies. Supply has increased slightly, demand has seasonally recovered, but inventory reduction is slow, and cost support is weak. The expansion of delivery warehouses suppresses the near - month contract [28]. - Strategy Recommendation: FG should be monitored in the range of [1130, 1160] [28]. Soda Ash - Market Review: The spot price of heavy soda ash has been partially adjusted upwards, the futures market has been consolidating at a low level, the main contract basis has narrowed, warehouse receipts have remained unchanged, and effective forecasts have increased [30]. - Basic Logic: The market is still significantly affected by macro - sentiment. Supply has increased due to device capacity utilization and new production capacity. Demand is weak, and although inventory has decreased slightly, the pressure remains high [30]. - Strategy Recommendation: SA should be monitored in the range of [1310, 1340] [31].