安粮期货生猪日报-20250415

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - Soybean Oil: The Y2509 contract of soybean oil may face short - term consolidation [1]. - Soybean Meal: Due to multiple factors, soybean meal may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations [2]. - Corn: In the short term, the corn futures price will be range - bound, and an interval operation strategy is recommended [3]. - Copper: Maintain a tactical defense and focus on the monthly K - line pattern [4]. - Lithium Carbonate: The 2505 contract of lithium carbonate may show a weak - side oscillatory trend, and short positions can be taken on rallies [5][6]. - Steel: With the gradual digestion of macro - negative factors, a strategy of buying on dips at low levels is recommended for steel [7]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Due to ample supply, coking coal and coke may have a limited - space, weak - side oscillatory rebound at low levels [8]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore 2505 contract will be range - bound in the short term, and traders are advised to be cautious [9]. - Crude Oil: After the sharp decline of the WTI main contract, pay attention to the rebound near the support level of 430 - 450 yuan/ton for the INE crude oil main contract [10]. - Rubber: Pay attention to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber, and there is support around 14,000 yuan/ton for the main contract [11]. - PVC: With a slight improvement in macro - sentiment, the futures price may oscillate at a low level [12]. - Soda Ash: The futures market is expected to show a short - term weak - side oscillatory trend [13]. 3. Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - Spot Information: The price of first - grade soybean oil at Zhangjiagang Donghai Grain and Oil is 8,320 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - Market Analysis: During the current period, it is the U.S. soybean sowing season and the South American soybean harvesting and exporting season. South American new - crop soybeans are likely to have a bumper harvest. The medium - term supply and demand of soybean oil may remain neutral, and the medium - term inventory may be stable [1]. Soybean Meal - Spot Information: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 3,300 yuan/ton, Tianjin 3,720 yuan/ton, Rizhao 3,440 yuan/ton, and Dongguan 3,220 yuan/ton [2]. - Market Analysis: The Sino - U.S. tariff policy has caused market panic. Brazilian soybean harvesting is nearly complete, and the export outlook for U.S. soybeans is pessimistic. The supply of domestic soybean meal is still tight, and Brazilian soybeans are expected to arrive in mid - to late April. The downstream inventory is low, and the trading volume has increased slightly [2]. Corn - Spot Information: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in different regions are provided, such as 2,090 yuan/ton in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, and 2,290 yuan/ton in North China and the Huanghuai region [3]. - Market Analysis: U.S. tariff hikes have increased the cost of corn imports. The U.S. corn market is oscillating strongly. In China, the supply pressure has eased, and the demand is expected to increase. However, there are still potential suppressing factors [3]. Copper - Spot Information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 74,430 - 74,670 yuan, down 555 yuan, with a discount of 30 - a premium of 20 [4]. - Market Analysis: Global "irrational" tariffs have caused turmoil in overseas capital markets. The Fed's stance reflects uncertainty. Domestically, policies are boosting market sentiment. The raw material supply problem has not been resolved, and the copper price is in a state of resonance [4]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot Information: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 70,750 yuan/ton (+250), and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 69,350 yuan/ton (+250) [5]. - Market Analysis: The forward price of spodumene concentrate is decreasing. Supply is increasing, and demand has improved but is still insufficient to drive up prices. The inventory is increasing, and the price has declined synchronously [5][6]. Steel - Spot Information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,170 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.13%, the social inventory is 5.9095 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 2.0712 million tons [7]. - Market Analysis: The fundamentals of steel are improving, and the contango structure is weakening. The cost is rising, and the inventory is decreasing. The market is affected by both macro - policy expectations and fundamentals [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - Spot Information: The price of main coking coal (Meng 5) is 1,200 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,330 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.4756 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 2.1713 million tons [8]. - Market Analysis: Supply is ample, demand is weak, inventory is slightly increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [8]. Iron Ore - Spot Information: The Platts iron ore index is 98.35, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 765 yuan, and the price of Australian powder ore (62% Fe) is 764 yuan [9]. - Market Analysis: Supply and demand factors are intertwined. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand is mixed. The U.S. tariff policy has restricted the upward movement of prices [9]. Crude Oil - Spot Information: Not provided in the report. - Market Analysis: The impact of U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" is fading. OPEC is increasing production, but global demand is under pressure due to trade wars and geopolitical uncertainties [10]. Rubber - Spot Information: Not provided in the report. - Market Analysis: U.S. tariffs have hit China's tire and automobile exports. The global supply and demand of rubber are both loose, and the demand may be severely restricted [11]. PVC - Spot Information: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,840 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan increase; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,080 yuan/ton, unchanged [12]. - Market Analysis: The production start - up rate has decreased. Demand remains weak, and the inventory has decreased. The futures price may oscillate at a low level [12]. Soda Ash - Spot Information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,446.88 yuan/ton, a 3.12 - yuan decrease [13]. - Market Analysis: Supply is at a high level, inventory is slightly decreasing, and demand is mediocre. The futures market is under pressure [13].