Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is affected by Sino - US trade frictions. Although the direct impact of tariffs on steel exports is small, the indirect impact is relatively large. The steel market is expected to fluctuate with tariff policies, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [1]. - The iron ore market is facing a situation where supply is expected to increase and demand is expected to decline. Considering factors such as high pig iron output and potential macro - policy benefits, it is expected to have a slight rebound or maintain a volatile trend in the near future, and the 09 contract should be considered from the perspective of shorting on rebounds [1]. - The coking coal market may experience pressure and fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the progress of supply recovery in production areas, fluctuations in imported coal prices, and the profit transmission effect of downstream industries [3]. - The coke market shows a weak balance between supply and demand. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risks of repeated macro - policies and negative feedback in the industrial chain, and focus on the recovery rhythm of terminal demand and changes in steel mill profits [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Steel - Price and Basis: On Monday, the rebar futures price fluctuated within a narrow range. The price of Zhongtian rebar in Hangzhou was 3,170 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The basis of the 05 contract was 123 (+3) [1]. - Export Impact: In 2024, China's steel exports to the US were 890,000 tons, accounting for only 0.8% of the total export volume. However, the indirect impact was relatively large. Last year, China's indirect steel exports reached 140 million tons, including over 10 million tons to the US [1]. - Market Outlook: The short - term market will fluctuate with tariff policies, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. 3.2. Iron Ore - Price and Basis: On Monday, the iron ore futures price fluctuated within a narrow range. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 764 yuan/wet ton (+2). The Platts 62% index was 99.45 US dollars/ton (+1.10), and the monthly average was 99.92 US dollars/ton. The PBF basis was 102 yuan/ton (+4) [1]. - Supply and Demand: The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,434.9 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 41.7. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 23,418.15 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 221.98. The daily pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises was 2.4022 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.49. With the peak of building material demand and the slowdown of plate demand growth due to tariffs, iron ore is expected to enter a stage of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with a weaker far - month outlook [1]. - Market Outlook: Considering that there is no signal of a peak in pig iron output and possible macro - policy benefits, it is expected to have a slight rebound or maintain a volatile trend in the near future. The 09 contract should be considered from the perspective of shorting on rebounds [1]. 3.3. Coking Coal - Supply: Some previously shut - down mines in the main production areas are gradually resuming production, but the incremental space is limited. The customs clearance volume at the Mongolian border fluctuates, and traders are cautious about accepting Australian coal in the long term. The transaction of imported coal has weakened after the price rebound, and the inverted price difference between domestic and foreign markets continues [3]. - Demand: The coking - steel game continues. Downstream steel mills mainly replenish inventory based on rigid demand and have a low acceptance of high - priced resources. Although the high pig iron output supports the rigid demand for coking coal, the terminal finished product demand is affected by policies, and the market's resistance to high - priced coal is increasing [3]. - Market Outlook: The short - term price of coking coal may be under pressure and fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the progress of supply recovery in production areas, fluctuations in imported coal prices, and the profit transmission effect of downstream industries [3]. 3.4. Coke - Supply: The start - up of coke enterprises in the main production areas remains stable, and the inventory pressure in factories has been alleviated, but there are regional differences. Some coke enterprises in the northwest region have tried to raise prices, but steel mills still resist [4]. - Demand: The pig iron output remains high, but the terminal finished product demand is affected by overseas tariff policies, and factors such as large fluctuations in the futures market have made steel mills more cautious in replenishing inventory, mainly based on rigid demand [4]. - Cost and Profit: The price fluctuation of raw coal has narrowed. Coke enterprises relieve operating pressure through cost reduction and efficiency improvement, but the thin coking profit restricts the supply elasticity [4]. - Market Outlook: The coke market shows a weak balance between supply and demand. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risks of repeated macro - policies and negative feedback in the industrial chain, and focus on the recovery rhythm of terminal demand and changes in steel mill profits [4]. 3.5. Industry News - On April 14, 2025, General Secretary Xi Jinping arrived in Hanoi for a state visit to Vietnam [5]. - The cold - rolling project of Henan Xingsheng New Materials Co., Ltd. was officially put into production recently [5]. - According to customs data on April 14, in March 2025, China imported 501,000 tons of steel, with a cumulative import of 1.55 million tons from January to March, a year - on - year decrease of 11.3%; exported 1.0456 million tons in March, with a cumulative export of 2.7429 million tons from January to March, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. In March, China imported 3.8732 million tons of coal and lignite, and 11.4846 million tons from January to March; imported 9.3974 million tons of iron ore and concentrates in March, and 28.5312 million tons from January to March, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8% [5]. - In March 2025, China exported 568,000 vehicles, with a cumulative export of 1.538 million vehicles from January to March, a year - on - year increase of 16.6%; exported 38.2343 million household appliances, with a cumulative export of 107.1918 million from January to March, a year - on - year increase of 13.1%; exported 680 ships, with a cumulative export of 1,555 ships from January to March, a year - on - year increase of 19.3% [5]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Implementation Plan for the Upgrading of the New - Generation Coal - fired Power Industry (2025 - 2027)", aiming to improve the power spot market, auxiliary service market, and coal - fired power capacity tariff mechanism [5].
长江期货黑色产业日报-20250415
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-04-15 03:00