有色金属日报-20250415

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The tariff war between the US and China has increased the probability of a global economic recession, causing significant short - term impacts on commodity prices. However, as the marginal impact of tariffs weakens, metal prices have shown different trends. Different trading strategies are recommended for various metals based on their fundamentals and market conditions [2]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - As of April 14, the Shanghai copper main 05 contract rose 2.06% to 76,310 yuan/ton. The tariff war has a complex impact on copper prices. Although short - term fundamentals are still resilient, the medium - to - long - term impact of tariffs may lower market demand and the price center. It is recommended to conduct range trading as the Shanghai copper is expected to maintain a wide - range, relatively strong oscillation next week [2]. - In the spot market, copper prices rebounded, but downstream buyers were hesitant due to high prices, leading to a sluggish trading atmosphere [7]. - Copper futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,805 tons to 89,369 tons, while LME copper inventory decreased by 950 tons to 207,825 tons [16]. Aluminum - As of April 14, the Shanghai aluminum main 06 contract rose 0.31% to 19,685 yuan/ton. The supply at the ore end is improving, and the alumina operating capacity has decreased. The electrolytic aluminum operating capacity has increased slightly. The downstream processing enterprise start - up rate has declined, and social inventories of aluminum ingots and rods have decreased. Due to the uncertainty of US tariff policies, it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to policy changes [3]. - In the spot market, there is still a bearish sentiment. Sellers are eager to sell, while buyers are waiting for lower prices, resulting in poor trading [8]. - Aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 2,531 tons to 102,713 tons, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,075 tons to 440,150 tons [16]. Nickel - As of April 14, the Shanghai nickel main 05 contract rose 1.79% to 123,090 yuan/ton. The US tariff policy has damaged the global trade environment, and the cost of nickel ore has increased. Although there is an oversupply in the nickel market, the price is near the cost line. It is recommended to wait and see [4][5]. - In the spot market, as nickel prices rebounded, downstream buyers were reluctant to trade due to high prices [13]. - Nickel futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,183 tons to 25,647 tons, and LME nickel inventory decreased by 120 tons to 204,372 tons [16]. Tin - As of April 14, the Shanghai tin main 05 contract rose 3.02% to 261,850 yuan/ton. The supply of tin ore is tight, but there are strong expectations of mine resumption. The downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover, which may support demand. It is recommended to conduct range trading with the reference range of 240,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton for the Shanghai tin 05 contract, and pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand [6]. - In the spot market, the price of tin increased [14]. - Tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 294 tons to 9,524 tons, and LME tin inventory decreased by 50 tons to 3,090 tons [16]. Zinc - In the spot market, the short - term trading activity has increased. The balance between sellers' price - holding intention and buyers' rigid demand has maintained a good trading interaction [10]. - Zinc futures warehouse receipts decreased by 74 tons to 6,883 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,050 tons to 117,300 tons [16]. Lead - In the spot market, downstream buyers mainly make rigid - demand purchases, and consumption is generally stable [12]. - Lead futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,391 tons to 58,523 tons, and LME lead inventory increased by 9,900 tons to 257,325 tons [16].