现货整体上调，豆粕偏强震荡

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the粕类 and corn sectors is neutral [1][3] 2) Core Viewpoints - For the粕类 market, the USDA's April supply - demand report didn't significantly adjust South American data. Brazil's soybean harvest is bountiful, and the large quantity of arrivals starting from April will bring supply pressure to China. However, the report raised the US domestic soybean crushing demand, which is positive for US domestic soybean oil consumption, leading to a rebound in CBOT soybean prices. The impact of tariff policies on prices is significant, and future impacts need continuous attention to macro - policies. In China, it's the arrival window for Brazilian soybeans. Although the Brazilian soybean premium remains firm, the overall arrival volume in the next few months is large, and short - term downstream supply isn't tight. Policy changes and domestic soybean arrivals should be closely watched [2] - For the corn market, in China, farmers have mostly sold their remaining grain, and the supply subject has shifted to traders. The sales rhythm of traders is stable. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises is declining, the inventories at North and South ports are high, the procurement of feed enterprises in the sales areas is average, and port de - stocking is slow. The upcoming wheat harvest in North China will limit the upward space of corn prices. The impact of international trade policy changes should be closely monitored, and corn prices are expected to be stable with range - bound fluctuations [5] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs 粕类 - Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3104 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton or 0.71% from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2505 contract was 2721 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton or 1.15% [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3660 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 3310 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3210 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2650 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: Brazilian farmers have sold over half of the 2024/25 soybean output, at least 86 million tons. The premium of Brazilian soybeans fluctuated slightly last weekend. On April 14, the CNF premium for imported Brazilian soybeans from May - July was 158 - 182 cents/bu, with a fluctuation of - 5 - 6 cents/bu from the previous day [1] - Market Analysis - The USDA report didn't adjust South American data much. Brazil's soybean harvest is good, and the large - scale arrival will bring supply pressure. The report raised US domestic soybean crushing demand, which is positive for US soybean oil consumption, and CBOT soybean prices rebounded. Tariff policies change rapidly and have a great impact on prices. In China, it's the arrival window for Brazilian soybeans. Although the premium is firm, the future arrival volume is large, and short - term supply isn't tight [2] Corn - Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2505 contract was 2267 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton or 0.13%; the corn starch 2505 contract was 2661 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.08% [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Market Information: The corn harvest in Argentina accelerated slightly last week, advancing 2.8%. As of April 8, the harvest progress was 23.1%, and the harvested output was 13.6 million tons. The USDA predicted Argentina's 2024/25 corn output to be 50 million tons, unchanged from the previous month and last year. Ukraine raised the minimum export prices of wheat and corn in April [3][4] - Market Analysis - In China, farmers have sold most of their remaining grain, and the supply subject has shifted to traders. The sales rhythm of traders is stable. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises is declining, port inventories are high, and port de - stocking is slow. The upcoming wheat harvest in North China will limit the upward space of corn prices. Corn prices are expected to be stable with range - bound fluctuations, and international trade policy changes should be closely monitored [5]