3月外贸数据点评：从抢出口看美国关税政策的三条主线

Export Performance - In March, China's exports surged by 12.4% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the Reuters consensus estimate of 4.4%[5] - The total export value reached $313.91 billion, while imports were $211.27 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $102.64 billion[5] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a year-on-year export growth of 5.8%, indicating strong performance overall[5] Trade Dynamics - Exports to major developed markets, including the US, EU, Japan, and the UK, showed significant recovery, with respective contributions to overall export growth of 1.2%, 1.4%, 0.3%, and 0.3%[5] - Exports to the US amounted to $40.06 billion in March, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 44.3%, surpassing the average growth of 39.2% since 2016[5] - Exports to the EU reached $43.06 billion, with a month-on-month growth of 41.7%, also above the historical average of 29.6%[5] Import Trends - March imports fell by 4.3% year-on-year, underperforming the expected decline of 2%[5] - The first quarter saw a 7% year-on-year decrease in imports, indicating weak overall performance[5] - High-tech products and electromechanical products saw import growth rates of 13.1% and 7.5% respectively in March[5] Tariff Policy Implications - The US tariff policy is expected to follow three main lines: a 10% baseline tariff for most countries, using tariffs as negotiation leverage, and imposing tariffs on specific industries to promote domestic production[5] - The estimated 10% baseline tariff could generate approximately $334.5 billion in revenue for the US government based on projected imports of $3.35 trillion in 2024[5] - China's response to US tariffs includes proactive domestic policies and sufficient monetary and fiscal policy space to mitigate impacts[5]