铜价走高之际，下游点价情绪有所走弱

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Option: short put @ 72,000 yuan/ton [7] Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are gradually stabilizing after a significant decline. Although smelters' profits from by - products like sulfuric acid and precious metals are still relatively good, the persistently low TC remains a concern. Macroscopically, the US dollar's credit is significantly impacted by the inconsistent tariff policies, and commodities with hedging functions such as precious metals and copper may be favored by the market [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On April 14, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 75,570 yuan/ton and closed at 76,310 yuan/ton, a 1.44% increase from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 76,350 yuan/ton and closed at 76,070 yuan/ton, a 0.41% increase from the afternoon's close [1] Spot Situation - In the morning, the mainstream flat - water copper was quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/ton to par, high - grade copper at a premium of 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and wet - process copper like MOOK series at a discount of 80 - 70 yuan/ton. During the main trading period, as the price rose, the flat - water copper was traded at a discount of 20 - 10 yuan/ton, high - grade copper at par, and wet - process copper at a discount of 50 yuan/ton. There was domestic copper from the bonded area flowing into the domestic market. With the market at 76,000 yuan/ton, downstream price - fixing sentiment weakened [2] Important Information Summary - Macro and Geopolitical: Fed Governor Waller said that in a large - scale tariff scenario with a significant economic slowdown, he would prefer earlier and larger interest rate cuts; in a small - tariff scenario, cuts may occur in the second half of the year. The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a plan to promote the transformation and upgrading of coal - fired power [3] - Mine End: Canadian mining company Hudbay Minerals reached an agreement with a union construction industry alliance for its Copper World mine in Arizona. The project with an annual output of 85,000 tons has obtained full construction permits and is expected to complete a final feasibility study in the first half of 2026 [3] - Smelting and Import: Western Mining's 2024 annual report showed significant increases in the production of mineral copper, mineral molybdenum, and smelted copper. The company also produced other products such as iron concentrate, silver - containing concentrate, high - purity magnesium hydroxide, and high - purity magnesium oxide [4] - Consumption: Yunnan Province announced a list of provincial major projects in 2025, including 4 copper - related projects [4] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 650 tons to 207,825 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 2,805 tons to 89,369 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory decreased by 16,700 tons to 250,500 tons [5] Strategy - The overall strategy for copper is cautiously bullish. For options, a short put at 72,000 yuan/ton is recommended [6][7]