国新国证期货早报-20250415

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On April 14, A-share's three major indexes continued to rebound. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.76% to close at 3262.81, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.51% to close at 9884.30, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.34% to close at 1932.91. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.2775 trillion yuan, a decrease of 71.2 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 3759.14, a month-on-month increase of 8.62 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On April 14, the weighted index of coke rebounded weakly, closing at 1565.7 yuan, a month-on-month increase of 15.9. The weighted index of coking coal was weakly sorted, closing at 958.4 yuan, a month-on-month increase of 7.8. The implementation of US tariffs has weakened market sentiment, and the decline in coke enterprise inventories has narrowed. There is still a risk of decline in steel exports in the long term. The overall supply of coking coal has increased, but the high port inventory has kept prices under pressure [1]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by concerns about a global economic recession and a decline in US sugar prices, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract oscillated downward on April 14. Brazilian sugar production in mid - late March decreased by 8.5% year - on - year [1]. Rubber - Due to large short - term gains and technical factors, the Shanghai rubber oscillated and sorted on the night of April 14, closing slightly higher. In March, the retail sales of the passenger car market were 1.94 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.4% and a month - on - month increase of 40.2%. Thailand's southern region is expected to have rainstorms from April 14 - 19 [2]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, the CBOT soybean oscillated on April 14. The US soybean export inspection volume met market expectations. Brazil's soybean harvest rate reached 89.09%, and its output increased by 16 million tons year - on - year. Argentina's soybean harvest was delayed due to rainfall. Domestically, the soybean meal futures price oscillated and closed up on April 14. In March, China imported 3.503 million tons of soybeans, and 17.109 million tons from January - March, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%. It is expected that the total import of Brazilian soybeans in the second quarter will exceed 30 million tons [2][3]. Live Pigs - On April 14, the live pig futures price first rose and then fell. The market is in the off - season of demand, and the supply is relatively loose. However, some farmers are reluctant to sell, and there is bottom - fishing in the second - fattening market. The cost of feed may rise due to tariffs, but in the medium term, the market is still in a pattern of loose supply and demand [4]. Palm Oil - On April 14, palm oil oscillated slightly at a low level. As of April 11, the commercial inventory of palm oil decreased month - on - month and year - on - year [4]. Soybean Oil - The position of the Y2509 contract increased. The spot price of Zhangjiagang first - grade soybean oil rose. CONAB expects Brazil's soybean output to increase by 13.6% in the 2024/25 season. Brazil's soybean harvest is coming to an end, but rainfall may affect it. Argentina's rainfall is conducive to the harvest. China's recent soybean imports are low, but it is expected to increase in late April [5]. Rapeseed Oil - The position of the OI2505 contract decreased. The spot price in Dongguan rose. The profit of imported rapeseed crushing has narrowed, and the arrival of imported rapeseed will decrease after April [6]. Shanghai Copper - Due to the easing of the global trade situation and the weakening of the US dollar index, combined with the continuous decline of domestic refined copper social inventory, Shanghai copper continued to rebound [6]. Iron Ore - On April 14, the iron ore 2509 contract oscillated and closed up. Last week, the shipping volume of iron ore decreased month - on - month, the arrival volume decreased for three consecutive periods, and the port inventory continued to decline. The iron water output has reached a high level, and the follow - up upward space may be limited. The short - term iron ore will oscillate [8]. Asphalt - On April 14, the asphalt 2506 contract oscillated and closed up. Last week, the asphalt refinery's operating rate increased month - on - month but remained at a low level. The shipment volume decreased after three consecutive periods of increase. The overall demand release is limited, and the social inventory continues to accumulate. The short - term asphalt will oscillate [8]. Cotton - On the night of April 14, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 12,930 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased. India's cotton output in the 2024/25 season is expected to decline [8]. Logs - On April 14, the log 2507 contract oscillated. The spot price of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained flat. From January - March, the import volume of logs and sawn timber decreased by 10% year - on - year. The port log inventory decreased month - on - month, and the overall demand is weak. The short - term market will oscillate [9]. Steel - On April 14, the rb2510 contract closed at 3126 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3242 yuan/ton. The macro - level is full of news, and the tariff game continues. The demand for rebar in April is not strong, and the project funds are not in place. The inventory is in the seasonal destocking cycle, and the follow - up destocking speed is a key concern [10]. Alumina - On April 14, the ao2505 contract closed at 2830 yuan/ton. The trade war sentiment has eased, and industrial products generally rose on April 14. Alumina rebounded after a previous decline. The supply pattern of alumina is still loose, which may restrict its upward space [10]. Shanghai Aluminum - On April 14, the al2505 contract closed at 19,690 yuan/ton. The US tariff policy has entered a short - term calm period, but still needs attention. The supply of electrolytic aluminum has limited growth, and it is in the destocking stage. The downstream is actively purchasing, which supports the aluminum price [11][13]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained stable on April 14. The downstream has a high proportion of long - term contracts and customer - supplied materials, with weak demand for spot purchases. The market is cautious and mostly on the sidelines [13].